It's early and all, but License to Wed is already emitting a foul-smelling odor.

Transformers - 1510 (761), +0 (+70), A-
License to Wed - 9 (4),+0 (+0), B+

And we're starting to clog again.

Aside from the horrible reviews (which I pretty much expected), how can you tell that at 9:42 AM, when the movie hasn't actually started playing anywhere yet?

It was more a joke than anything. But, such a feeling also comes from experience.

Transformers is now on the front page. The flood gate of reviews has opened.

Transformers - 2394 (886), +884 (+125), A-
License to Wed - 34 (4),+25 (+0), B

Transformers - 2735 (1020), +341 (+134), A-
License to Wed - 38 (4),+4 (+0), B+ (Up from B)

Biggestgeek, we only update these at :30 past every hour. Thanks for doing it, though.

Sorry. I'll try to remember that for the rest of the day.

Transformers - 3175 (1118), +781 (+232), A-
License to Wed - 47 (5),+9 (+1), B

I have License to Wed pacing at a $3M day right now. Ouch.

They just updated (it's more like :40 past the hour instead of :30 now), so I modified your post, RT.

Maintaining an A- with 3,000 votes is impressive.

License to Wed should have a low ratio around 90, but still look like it will struggle to $2m today.

Thanks. Most of my updates are 35 minutes after the hour, but I guess this one still missed. License To Wed is in trouble. I was thinking $2M myself but didn't want to be laughed at this early. They won't laugh at you, though.

Transformers is the first new release to take the #1 spot of all-time since yahoo started the list a few years ago. Only The Shawshank Redemption and Return of the King have been there. Fanboys or not, WOM is incredible.

It might even remain an A- like ROTK. Well, probably not once the fake reviews from bay haters come in, but it might have the best WOM since ROTK.

Can I still laugh if it does better than that?

Seriously, I don't understand how you can figure out that it will "struggle to $2m" at 1 PM? That makes no sense to me.

I still don't see it on the front page. Just another ad is added in the middle besides the one on the top right.

Xiayun, it went off the front page around 1 EST. It was on there about the standard one hour most high-profile films get.

It's based on years of experience, observation, and record-keeping. It's how we projected Evan Almighty to open around $30M and Ratatouille to be a $45-50M opener. Horlicks noted at the inception of this system that how a film starts can be a solid indicator of how it will finish. Since his departure, we have continued to refine this methodology. We're not always right, but more often than not these days.

As for License To Wed, I was projecting 250 reviews and a ratio of 100-125. which translates to $2.0 - $2.5M. The ratio could technically be 80-90, but the grade would suggest a higher ratio and offset my misprojection of raw reviews. If the pacing shifts dramatically, I'll be wrong, but I play the odds.

You should be scared, though. RT's early projections/feelings have been incredibly accurate lately.

What would I be scared abut, that the movie won't do well? If it doesn't, then whatever. I just think relying on Yahoo entirely to tell how the movie's going to do so early in he afternoon is overrated.

Transformers - 3474 (1177), +299 (+59), A-
License to Wed - 59 (5),+12 (+0), B

Transformers - 3774 (1254), +300 (+77), A-
License to Wed - 73 (5),+14 (+0), B

Transformers is averaging 300 reviews per hour right now.

Given that it earned about $9m 8pm-midnight and probably another $1-2m after midnight, and its Yahoo number was around 2,500 this morning, look like the ratio is about 250.

That's huge ratio

It if kept up with 300 reviews/hour the rest of the way, that ratio would produce a $32M day - in line with most expectations.

I'd be overjoyed with a 32 million opening day...

I enjoy that the transformers countdown at the top of the page says that there is still 8 hours to go
Guess they never switched it when it was switched to a Tuesday release....