Yeah, it is possible that something from the winter will top it. But it is assured a spot in the Top 5 of the year.

X-Men: The Last Stand vs. The Matrix Reloaded vs. Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban



[table][row]Days[col]X-Men 3[col]% Change[col]Total Gross[col]The Matrix Reloaded[col]% Change[col]Total Gross[col]Harry Potter 3[col]% Change[col]Total Gross[row]Day 1[col]$45,102,265[col]NEW[col]$45,102,265[col]$42,508,303[col]NEW[col]$42,508,303[col]$38,268,295[col]NEW[col]$38,268,295[row]Day 2[col]$31,997,843[col]-29.1%[col]$77,100,108[col]$31,330,393[col]-16.5%[col]$73,838,696[col]$31,493,867[col]-17.7%[col]$69,762,162[row]Day 3[col]$25,650,557[col]-19.8%[col]$102,750,665[col]$34,389,237[col]+9.8%[col]$108,227,933[col]$23,925,205[col]-24%[col]$93,687,367[row]Day 4[col]$20,110,492[col]-21.6%[col]$122,861,157[col]$26,054,783[col]-24.2%[col]$134,282,716[col]$8,428,431[col]-64.8%[col]$102,115,798[row]Day 5[col]$7,289,543[col]-63.8%[col]$130,150,700[col]$10,108,350[col]-61.2%[col]$144,391,066[col]$7,247,296[col]-14%[col]$109,363,094[row]Day 6[col]$5,805,109[col]-20.4%[col]$135,955,809[col]$7,528,447[col]-25.5%[col]$151,919,513[col]$6,878,482[col]-5.1%[col]$116,241,576[row]Day 7[col]$5,375,353[col]-7.4%[col]$141,331,162[col]$6,323,052[col]-16%[col]$158,242,565[col]$6,823,073[col]-0.8%[col]$123,064,649[row]Day 8[col]$10,309,481[col]+91.8%[col]$151,640,643[col]$5,627,160[col]-11%[col]$163,869,725[col]$11,340,416[col]+66.2%[col]$134,405,065[row]Day 9[col]$14,328,792[col]+39%[col]$165,969,435[col]$10,328,193[col]+83.5%[col]$174,197,918[col]$13,541,888[col]+19.4%[col]$147,946,953[row]Day 10[col]$9,378,974[col]-34.5%[col]$175,348,409[col]$14,447,596[col]+39.9%[col]$188,645,514[col]$10,028,089[col]-25.9%[col]$157,975,042[row]Day 11[col]$2,932,897[col]-68.7%[col]$178,281,306[col]$12,128,245[col]-16.1%[col]$200,773,759[col]$3,988,420[col]-60.2%[col]$161,963,462[row]Day 12[col]$3,025,777[col]+3.2%[col]$181,307,083[col]$8,708,118[col]-28.2%[col]$209,481,877[col]$3,742,468[col]-6.2%[col]$165,705,930[row]Day 13[col]$2,471,902[col]-18.3%[col]$183,778,985[col]$2,789,232[col]-68%[col]$212,271,109[col]$3,623,498[col]-3.2%[col]$169,329,428[row]Day 14[col]$2,387,089[col]-3.4%[col]$186,166,074[col]$2,435,292[col]-12.7%[col]$214,706,401[col]$3,568,359[col]-1.5%[col]$172,897,787[row]Day 15[col]$4,962,358[col]+107.9%[col]$191,128,432[col]$2,307,404[col]-5.3%[col]$217,013,805[col]$5,301,202[col]+48.6%[col]$178,198,989[row]Day 16[col]$6,699,418[col]+35%[col]$197,827,850[col]$4,320,368[col]+87.2%[col]$221,334,173[col]$7,109,213[col]+31.4%%[col]$185,308,202[row]Day 17[col]$4,416,802[col]-34.1%[col]$202,244,652[col]$6,912,557[col]+60%[col]$228,246,730[col]$5,617,051[col]-21%[col]$190,925,253[row]Day 18[col]$1,668,518[col]-62.2%[col]$203,913,170[col]$4,454,316[col]-35.6%[col]$232,701,046[col]$2,365,255[col]-57.9%[col]$193,290,508[row]Day 19[col]$1,534,991[col]-8%[col]$205,448,161[col]$1,482,191[col]-66.7%[col]$234,183,237[col]$2,606,157[col]+10.2%[col]$195,896,665[row]Day 20[col]$1,511,075[col]-1.6%[col]$206,959,236[col]$1,618,420[col]+9.2%[col]$235,801,657[col]$2,155,072[col]-17.3%[col]$198,051,737[row]Day 21[col]$1,439,364[col]-4.7%[col]$208,398,600[col]$1,383,373[col]-14.5%[col]$237,185,030[col]$2,238,399[col]+3.9%[col]$200,290,136[row]Day 22[col]$2,235,937[col]+55.3%[col]$210,634,537[col]$1,407,381[col]+1.7%[col]$238,592,411[col]$3,409,078[col]+52.3%[col]$203,699,214[row]Day 23[col]$3,016,310[col]+34.9%[col]$213,650,847[col]$2,569,180[col]+82.6%[col]$241,161,591[col]$4,468,178[col]+31.1%[col]$208,167,392[row]Day 24[col]$2,568,006[col]-14.9%[col]$216,218,853[col]$3,981,565[col]+55%[col]$245,143,156[col]$3,370,156[col]-24.6%[col]$211,537,548[row]Day 25[col]$884,732[col]-65.5%[col]$217,103,585[col]$2,635,597[col]-33.8%[col]$247,778,753[col]$1,576,154[col]-53.2%[col]$213,113,702[row]Day 26[col]$860,270[col]-2.8%[col]$217,963,855[col]$977,179[col]-62.9%[col]$248,755,932[col]$1,559,225[col]-1.1%[col]$214,672,927[row]Day 27[col]$843,088[col]-2%[col]$218,806,943[col]$1,027,397[col]+5.1%[col]$249,783,329[col]$1,204,222[col]-22.8%[col]$215,877,149[row]Day 28[col]$857,269[col]+1.7%[col]$219,664,212[col]$946,436[col]-7.9%[col]$250,729,765[col]$1,301,390[col]+8.1%[col]$217,178,539[row]Day 29[col]$1,412,595[col]+64.8%[col]$221,076,807[col]$1,011,450[col]+6.9%[col]$251,741,215[col]$1,916,300[col]+47.3%[col]$219,094,839[row]Day 30[col]$1,962,601[col]+38.9%[col]$223,039,408[col]$1,541,699[col]+52.4%[col]$253,282,914[col]$2,307,366[col]+20.4%[col]$221,402,205[row]Day 31[col]$1,466,754[col]-25.3%[col]$224,506,162[col]$2,376,587[col]+54.2%[col]$255,659,501[col]$1,714,808[col]-25.7%[col]$223,117,013[row]Day 32[col]$625,454[col]-57.4%[col]$225,131,616[col]$1,827,179[col]-23.1%[col]$257,486,680[col]$2,602,703[col]+51.8%[col]$225,719,716[row]Day 33[col]$576,368[col]-7.8%[col]$225,707,984[col]$705,214[col]-61.4%[col]$258,191,894[col]$1,085,447[col]-58.3%[col]$226,805,163[row]Day 34[col]$381,059[col]-33.9%[col]$226,089,043[col]$766,207[col]+8.6%[col]$258,958,101[col]$950,739[col]-12.4%[col]$227,755,902[row]Day 35[col]$394,351[col]+3.5%[col]$226,483,394[col]$738,393[col]-3.6%[col]$259,696,494[col]$987,473[col]+3.9%[col]$228,743,375[row]Day 36[col]$613,322[col]+55.5%[col]$227,096,716[col]$762,456[col]+3.3%[col]$260,458,950[col]$1,157,303[col]+17.2%[col]$229,900,678[row]Day 37[col]$805,152[col]+31.3%[col]$227,901,868[col]$1,106,604[col]+45.1%[col]$261,565,554[col]$1,578,228[col]+36.4%[col]$231,478,906[row]Day 38[col]$789,135[col]-2%[col]$228,691,003[col]$1,625,359[col]+46.9%[col]$263,190,913[col]$1,316,786[col]-16.6%[col]$232,795,692[row]Day 39[col]$635,959[col]-19.4%[col]$229,326,962[col]$1,210,529[col]-25.5%[col]$264,401,442[col]$688,190[col]-47.7%[col]$233,483,882[row]Day 40[col]$478,930[col]-24.7%[col]$229,805,892[col]$488,115[col]-59.7%[col]$264,889,557[col]$721,218[col]+4.8%[col]$234,205,100[row]Day 41[col]$313,931[col]-34.5%[col]$230,119,823[col]$543,337[col]+11.3%[col]$265,432,894[col]$706,332[col]-2.1%[col]$234,911,432[row]Day 42[col]$293,582[col]-6.5%[col]$230,413,405[col]$483,420[col]-11%[col]$265,916,314[col]$675,202[col]-4.4%[col]$235,586,634[row]Day 43[col]$298,632[col]+1.7%[col]$230,712,037[col]$488,022[col]+1%[col]$266,404,336[col]$732,218[col]+8.4%[col]$236,318,852[row]Day 44[col]$377,866[col]+26.5%[col]$231,089,903[col]$718,677[col]+47.3%[col]$267,123,013[col]$1,042,989[col]+42.4%[col]$237,361,841[row]Day 45[col]$244,044[col]-35.4%[col]$231,333,947[col]$1,063,573[col]+48%[col]$268,186,586[col]$982,838[col]-5.8%[col]$238,344,679[row]Day 46[col]$113,372[col]-53.5%[col]$231,447,319[col]$793,177[col]-25.4%[col]$268,979,763[col]$441,495[col]-55.1%[col]$238,786,174[row]Day 47[col]$120,058[col]+5.9%[col]$231,567,377[col]$429,401[col]-45.9%[col]$269,409,164[col]$448,287[col]+1.5%[col]$239,234,461[row]Day 48[col]$119,782[col]-0.2%[col]$231,687,159[col]$355,395[col]-17.2%[col]$269,764,559[col]$427,181[col]-4.7%[col]$239,661,642[row]Day 49[col]$115,034[col]-4%[col]$231,802,193[col]$266,118[col]-25.1%[col]$270,030,677[col]$431,259[col]+1%[col]$240,092,901[/table]


Well, X3 will finish well behind both of them. Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban overtook X3 on its 32nd day

Frankly, I don't see any winter film passing it. It should end up at $234 million and I don't see any winter film getting over $225 million.

I think Happy Feet and Eragon have a shot at 230m+

Yeah, but something could always surprise. I don't think anyone saw Narnia getting close to $300 million, but it did. There's always a big holiday film (Narnia, Fockers, LOTR, HP, Grinch), just because people want to go see something. I think at least something from the winter will pass X3.

Grosses after 49 Days:


Spider-Man - $385,826,381
Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith - $367,688,930
Spider-Man 2 - $361,891,163
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone - $294,474,009
Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones - $288,161,397
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire - $278,658,114
The Matrix Reloaded - $270,030,677
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban - $240,092,901
X-Men: The Last Stand- $231,802,193
Bruce Almighty - $230,816,030
X2: X-Men United - $208,277,663


_______________________________________________________________________________________________

Bruce Almighty is catching up to X3 slowly, while Spider-Man shows once again what a behemoth it was.

Yeah, but most still predicted $220+ million for Narnia and I always saw it as a lock for $200 million. This winter, no movie is even close to a lock for $200 million. Happy Feet, Night at the Museum, Eragon and Charlotte's Web have a chance, but $235 million is still quite an amount of cash...

Yeah, it surprised me. And besides, you guys at BOM always overpredict everything.

At least something will break out this winter and do better than expected. I just can't see no holiday film crossing $200 million.

I think that atleast one movie will push X3 down the list. There's always been one since 1999 in November/December that has grossed 240 million. Sure there isn't a big established franchise having a movie released this year, but not all 240+ million grossers have been big established franchises. Something will surprise.

1999
Toy Story 2- $245,852,179

2000
The Grinch Who Stole Christmas- $260,044,825
Cast Away(close enough)- $233,632,142

2001
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone- $317,575,550
Fellowship of the Ring- $313,364,114
Monster's Inc- $255,873,250

2002
The Two Towers- $339,789,881
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets- $261,988,482

2003
Return of the King- $377,027,325

2004
Meet the Fockers- $279,261,160
The Incredibles- $261,441,092

2005
Narnia- $291,710,957
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire- $290,013,036

I Hope its Happy Feet

240m+

Yeah, but then again, if you take out Potter and LOTR which are always $200+ million guarantees, you've got 2002 and 2003 without $200 million grossers. Take out Pixar and you've got only 2000, 2004 and 2005 with $200+ million grossers. There is nothing of the scale of Pixar, LOTR or HP coming out this year.

I'm pretty sure Fellowship of the Ring was originially a surprise. It opened up to less than 50 million and wasn't supposed to hit 240 million let alone 300. True, nothing with a big established franchise is opening up this year, but like 2000, 2001, 2004, and 2005 (I'm sure there some who predicted Narnia to break out, but it was overall a surprise) showed us, there's always a movie that breaks out. It is the winter season after all, people are on vacation and need a movie to see.

I was talking about $200 million and I am pretty sure that all/almost all predictions for FOTR were north of $200 milllion.

My bad. Since we were talking about a movie that could push X3 down a spot, I thought you were referring to movies that would gross 240+ over the winter.

One or, maybe two movies will push it down the slot; Night at the Museum, if works, could be huge. It just has that perfect concept. I think that will hit the Bruce Almighty cord that Click didn't. And Nativity might not have the Gibson starpower, but it's a much friendlier, and [i]veryp/i] holiday traditional story.

After seeing the Charlotte's Web trailer, I've kind of lost faith in it.