Hey, I don't what happened this past year all of sudden I've been getting knocked out at 10:30 May have to take some pep pills or something.

Go Sox

That has to be one of the most realistic predictions I've seen.

worst multiplier this could get is a 2.4 really. SO many people will see it opening weekend that if they dont like it, theres a huge chance they just wont return and that huge mass of people will tell others.

but i give a 2.7

doesnt matter. if people dont like it, itll drop on its own. watch. yeah having no films helps it and it wont loose as much mney, but if it isnt well recieved, itll still drop hard. like xmen 3, the built up demand+teen fanbase will essentially inflate its opening weekend, so itll drop 50%+ anyways. but if it poorly recieved 60% isnt out the question, but thats still over 50 million 2nd weekend.

well, then i again i have to take into account weekdays. those will be unpredictable.

Anyone up for a 3am July 7 showing at the El Capitan?

http://johnnydepp-zone.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=27196

Their midnight showing is already sold out. Oh, and they've apparently done up the whole place to theme it to PotC. From the brochure scans I've seen, it looks pretty damn cool.

Joy

They would need to have Uwe Boll as the director of POTC2 to have bad WOM. This will have good WOM I'm pretty sure about it

do u no what happens in it?

Thanks.

I just took what BJ had and divided by two.

pirates should gross more than superman returns in america, but it will show how the american public are becoming stupider and stupider.

after all, this is the country that elected george w. bush twice and gives rappers like nelly millions of dollars because they buy his albums.


just kidding

WOM should be "decent" at the very worst. Most crowds seemed to love the first one, and if Johnny Depp keeps it fun and entertaining (which he probably will), I'm sure many people will look past anything bad. But just to be sure that WOM is good and nobody is really disappointed with the ending, Disney needs to get word out to everyone that there's another Pirates film coming next year. I don't know how many people know that yet, but they should attach a small teaser to Pirates 2 and show it before the movie (no footage, just some nifty visual stuff and Pirates of the Carribean: At World's End- Coming Memorial Day 2007) because a lot of people wouldn't stay through the credits to see it.

One word says it all... PIRATES!!!

Eventine's Prediction:

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

Opening Day: 48.08m
2nd Day: 46.16m -4%
Opening Wknd: 130.24m - Fri: 48.08m / Sat: 46.16m -4% / Sun: 36.00m -22%
4-Day: 146.80m - Mon: 16.56m -54%
5-Day: 161.54m - Tue: 14.74m -11%
6-Day: 174.36m - Wed: 12.82m -13%
Opening Wk: 186.41m - Thur: 12.05m -6%
2nd Wknd: 62.65m -51.9% - Fri: 18.68m +55% / Sat: 24.84m +33% / Sun: 19.13m -23%
11-Day: 270.59m - Mon: 10.08m -47%
12-Day: 279.76m - Tue: 9.17m -9%
13-Day: 288.29m - Wed: 8.53m -7%
2nd Wk: 296.99m - Thur: 8.70m +2%
3rd Wknd: 40.10m -36% - Fri: 12.09m +39% / Sat: 15.48m +28% / Sun: 12.53m -19%
Wk-1: 186.41m - Wknd: 130.24m | Total: 186.41m
Wk-2: 99.13m - Wknd: 62.65m | Total: 285.54m
Wk-3: 68.14m - Wknd: 40.10m | Total: 364.13m
Wk-4: 42.41m - Wknd: 26.07m | Total: 402.54m
Wk-5: 21.48m - Wknd: 17.99m | Total: 421.02m
Wk-6: 17.88m - Wknd: 12.85m | Total: 443.90m
Wk-7: 13.19m - Wknd: 8.62m | Total: 456.59m
Wk-8: 8.76m - Wknd: 5.32m | Total: 464.85m
Wk-9: 7.45m - Wknd: 4.18m - 4-Day-Wknd: 5.44m | Total: 472.30m
Wk-10: 5.14m - Wknd: 2.84m | Total: 477.44m
Wk-11: 3.03m - Wknd: 1.77m | Total: 480.47m
Wk-12: 1.67m - Wknd: 1.32m | Total: 482.14m
Wk-13: 1.07m - Wknd: .83m | Total: 483.21m
Wk-14: .67m - Wknd: .49m | Total: 483.88m
Wk-15: .33m - Wknd: .23m | Total: 484.21m
Wk-16: .49m - Wknd: .36m | Total: 484.70m
Wk-17: .29m - Wknd: .21m | Total: 484.99m
Wk-18: .21m - Wknd: .14m | Total: 485.20m
Wk-19: .18m - Wknd: .12m | Total: 485.38m
Wk-20: .10m - Wknd: .07m | Total: 485.48m
Money Made After Wk-20: ~.3m
Estimated Wks in theaters: 25
Days to 50m: 2-Days - 58.03m
Days to 100m: 3-Days - 130.24m
Days to 150m: 5-Days - 161.54m
Days to 200m: 8-Days - 208.22m
Days to 250m: 10-Days - 260.51m
Days to 300m: 15-Days - 309.08m
Days to 350m: 19-Days - 351.15m
Days to 400m: 28-Days - 401.54m
Days to 450m: 44-Days - 451.09m
Domestic Total: 487m
International Total: 519m
World Wide Total: 1.006b

Multiplyer: 3.74

Tell that to Shrek.

On a serious note, I'm planning on changing those predictions soon. Just not now.

I think most of the general public knows a third is coming but they just don't know when. When the actors start making appearences they will bring up the third one.

Shrek 2 was 90 minutes and had a Memorial Day second weekend boost.

That's what I was thinking as well.

Also, it does help from the Reloaded/Revolutions standpoint that they won't have to interrupt the promotional cycles of both films, like they did with Reloaded's DVD release and the theatrical release of Revolutions. If properly marketed (i.e. similarly to Reloaded), Revolutions could have been a bigger moneymaker at the very least. I think it could have been a $200 million hit if they'd held it off until May 2004 isntead of attemtpting to put it out less than half a year after Reloaded.

Actually Pirates was a very intelligent movie with complex plot and snappy dialogue. I wouldn't call America stupid for liking it. Shrek 1, now that was for stupid people.

As for the multiplier, even matrix reloaded, for all its frontloading and subsequent lousy WOM, got a 3 multiplier. (91/280). I expect Pirates to do better than that.

90 minutes lowers legs if anything.

How? If a movie's shorter people are more likely to go and see it again, because it's not as big of a time commitment.

That's when you add in the Thursday gross. If it opened on Friday the multiplier would have been under 2.5.

However, July is better for multipliers, and Reloaded was mostly male and didn't have families or comedy fans. Legs for this will be at a 3 minimum.

More people are able to fit in opening weekend?

And you can argue the opposite that more people are likely to see it on opening weekend due to it being less of a time commitment.

Anyway, it had its legs because it was a family film and a comedy. WOM didn't hurt either.

Well Revolutions had a myriad of problems, but I think the general audience here would agree. Matrix Revolutions would have made a bundle more in summer 2004 or even 2005 than being released in the shadow of Return of the King and in a market that had been extremely oversaturated by Reloaded in the summer.

My Long Predictions

F7-07: $47 million
S7-08: $44.2 million (-8%); $91.2 million
S7-09: $32.3 million (-27%); $123.5 million (Up a bit from where I had it last)
M7-10: $12.3 million (-62%); $135.8 million
T7-11: $11.7 million (-5%); $147.5 million
W7-12: $11.2 million (-4%); $158.7 million
T7-13: $10.9 million (-3%); $169.6 million
F7-14: $17.2 million (+58%); $186.8 million
S7-15: $21.7 million (+26%); $208.5 million
S7-16: $16.1 million (-26%); $224.6 million ($55 million wknd- 55% drop)
M7-17: $6.6 million (-59%); $231.2 million
T7-18: $6.5 million (-2%); $237.7 million
W7-19: $6.1 million (-6%); $243.8 million
T7-20: $5.8 million (-5%); $249.6 million
F7-21: $9.5 million (+63%); $259.1 million
S7-22: $11.9 million (+25%); $271 million
S7-23: $8.9 million (-25%); $279.9 million ($30.3 million wknd- 45% drop)
M7-24: $3.6 million (-60%); $283.5 million
T7-25: $3.4 million (-6%); $286.9 million
W7-26: $3.2 million (-5%); $290.1 million
T7-27: $3.1 million (-4%); $293.2 million
F7-28: $5 million (+60%); $298.2 million
S7-29: $6.3 million (+26%); $304.5 million
S7-30: $4.7 million (-25%); $309.2 million ($16 million wknd- 47% drop)
M7-31: $1.9 million (-60%); $311.1 million
T8-01: $1.8 million (-5%); $312.9 million
W8-02: $1.7 million (-4%); $314.6 million
T8-03: $1.7 million (-); $316.3 million
F8-04: $2.7 million (+60%); $319 million
S8-05: $3.4 million (+27%); $322.4 million
S8-06: $2.5 million (-26%); $324.9 million ($8.6 million- 46% drop)

Final Total Prediction: $345 million

Very good opening, decent legs. A 50%+ second weekend drop and near-50% drops from there on.

Webslinger, the Sunday-Monday drops are gonna be less than 55% no matter what. It's July.