With five reviews, Sweeney Todd debuts on Metacritic with 91. Nice. Charlie Wilson's War also has five reviews and a score of 75.

Sweeney Todd's reviews are in the right place, but it's the box office that's going to tip it over the line into nomination territory. Because if it performed weakly [which, considering its anticipation, it won't], American Gangster's box office would make up for its weaker reviews and make the two of them equal competitors to get into a BP slot.

so...

No Country's a 100% lock.

TWBB's a 95% lock.

Atonement is a 75% very likely candidate...I'm very certain it will, but it COULD get a Cold Mountain/Dreamgirls treatment

Juno's a 75% very likely candidate...its fantastic reviews, fantastic box office, and existence as the only lighthearted film competing make things very, very good for it.

Sweeney Todd's at 60%, my predicted last nomination, but if reviews go down a bit, it could miss out.

Michael Clayton's at 40%, it's gotten a LOT of critical support, but it didn't spark fire at the box office and it's not a loud, emotional film like the Academy usually goes for.

American Gangster's at 20%, its terrific box office is keeping it in the race, as well as the starpower, but if Sweeney Todd does very well [$125m+], it's out.

The Diving Bell's at 15%, I think it's very likely for a Director nomination, but Picture seems like a bit of a stretch at the moment.

Into the Wild's at 10%, it's a kind of movie they'd go for, but it isn't getting enough support.

Gone Baby Gone's at 5%, it's also a kind of movie they'd go for, but it isn't getting enough support.

Ratatouille, Jesse James, BTDKYD, The Savages, and Zodiac fill out the last 5%.

that's 500%

After the snubs for Director at BFCA and Globes, TWBB is in no way 95% locked for a nom. Atonement and Michael Clayton at this point are in better positions.

No Country is the only lock.

Atonement is more and more taking after Cold Mountain but it seems to have some really passionate supporters which I don't think CM had, so I'd still include it in my predictions.

There Will Be Blood is on shaky ground. Michael Clayton is gaining on it.

Sweeney Todd needs the box office for a nomination. A win is starting to fade away from the picture. It hasn't won any major award and is missing out on some Best Pic nods while only Burton gets director mentions.

I just saw the Diving Bell and it was really something but it didn't blow me away. I don't think it was better than either Pan's Labyrinth or The Lives of Others. The direction was astounding and I think he will get a lone director nom but I don't see Picture.

Here is how I'd rank them with percentages

No Country for Old Men: 95%
Atonement: 75%
Sweeney Todd: 50%
Juno: 50%
There Will Be Blood: 45%
Michael Clayton: 40%
Diving Bell: 20%
Into the Wild: 15%
American Gangster: 10%
Gone Baby Gone: 10%

Yes, there are surprisingly few locks for BP as far as this in the game. Actually, as Raffi has said, there's only one - NCFOM.

I'd say that Atonement and TWBB are the interchangable #2 and #3. Both have fairly strong arguments for and against them. Lemme break them down:


Atonement

Pro:

- Very well-reviewed (over 10 100 scores at MC) British period drama (Oscar bait!)
- Looking good for one or two acting noms
- Strong technical support likely and an adapted screenplay nom pretty much locked
- Swept the Globes noms


Contra:

- Failed to appear on several lists so far and support somewhat fading generally
- Knightley seems much less of a sure thing zthan she used to
- Eeerly similar to Cold Mountain a fewe years ago


There Will Be Blood

Pro:

- Swept the LAFCA awards (Picture/Director/Actor and three Runner-Up's)
- Daniel Day-Lewis locked as Best Actor
- The director has delivered several times in the past and has been rather ignored
- Best Picture mentions almost everywhere
- Raving Reviews
- Screenplay nom very likely

Contra:

- Competing against a rather similarly dark No Country for Old Men
- Very late release date
- Failed to get enough recognition for Director P.T. Anderson, especially at the Globes and the BFCA
- Seems like a one-man show for DDL



_________________________________________________________________

I think the pro's outweigh the contra's for both.



Then on to the final two spots...this is where I think it starts getting really wild. I think that the following are all legit contenders:

Michael Clayton
Sweeney Todd
Juno
Into the Wild
American Gangster
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly


Michael Clayton is probably looking best of them so far due to several mentions of the film and especially of George Clooney. Moreover, it looks likely to get three acting noms this year, lending it a lot of support from the actors branch. I really don't know how the hell it could happen that this film is a BP contender...but looks like it is.


The last spot, I'd have to guess, because all the remaining films have almost an equal chance, IMO with all having several big advantages and disadvantages. I'll wait and see.

TWBB has been nominated for every major Picture [aside from the NBR who i'm sure didn't see it] and the Globes really don't all see the yet-to-be-released-movies when they vote [see: The Producers, Phantom of the Opera]. Every single other awards group and a very strong handful of critics have regarded it highly. I honestly can't see it not getting in at this point.

Crash wasn't nominated for Director OR Picture at the Globes...while it and TWBB are completely different stories, the one thing they have in common is that they're the late bloomers who pick up speed as the race goes along. Crash did so because of its DVD release and Roger Ebert, and TWBB will do so because of its very late release date. Its chances can only go up from here, which says a lot since it's already in such a high place.

so maybe more like an 85-90% extremely likely chance, but there's no way you can really say Michael Clayton is higher than it at this point. Was it nominated for Best Director at the Globes? It didn't appear at the NYFCC Awards [TWBB won Best Actor and was runner-up for BP/BD] either

the reason I have it above Atonement is because films like Atonement have been snubbed in the past. The epic, production-valued, flashy films with tons of hype, namely "Cold Mountain" and "Dreamgirls," were two films in a situation similar to Atonement. After starting out with hype for a BP win, the reviews came around and weren't as hot as expected, other films took the lead, and then they surprised everyone by missing out on a nom entirely. I don't think this'll happen to Atonement, but looking at recent history, it certainly could.

I think it comes down to DGA whether TWBB is nominated for BP.I would be surprised if TWBB receives a SAG ensemble nom and I also think PGA is not certain. Therefore DGA is key. Munich had a fairly weak awards seaon but was nominated for DGA and ended up with BP and BD nominations. Dreamgirls missed a directors nom at the GG along with DGA and failed to be nominated at the Oscars for either BP or BD.

They're in the middle of changing servers right now, which I guess isn't helping. Also, there's such a drastic difference between the traffic they get now and say, in April that it has to be hard to find a compromise.

Uhh...only that Dreamgirls WAS nominated for a DGA award!

You think it can sneak in late?

holy sheiza. I just went to the IMDB page for "Burn After Reading," the Coens' 2008 film. My oh my, even if they win this year, BAR looks like a frontrunner for next year's Oscar. Clooney, Pitt, Swinton, Macdormand, and Malkovich all together in one film directed by two fantastic filmmakers...this is gonna be real good.

Burn After Reading sounds fantastic. According to IMDB, the Coen Brothers also have a movie scheduled for release in 2009.

It's a comedy, though, so...

But Coen Brother comedies are as Academy-type comedy as you can find....well, maybe not since they apparently only like happy, quirky pseudo-indie comedies now (although maybe that was just LMS....we still don't know how much attention Juno will get)

yeah, but it's the Coens, so...I'd definitely consider this as likely a BP nom as is out there at the moment for 2008. This doesn't look like another "Ladykillers," at the least.

Exactly. More like a Screenplay and maybe one acting nominee.

Random question: Anyone know the expansion plans for Persepolis? I hate not being in New York, especially this time of the year. I would have already seen this and TWBB by now.

Still holding out hope for Sweeney to get a second surge. Sadly, I won't be hear to cheer it on come Oscar night... so Loyal, if you could hold that little bit higher for me, I'd appreciate it.

Farewell Oscar forum.

Tee heeee

I'm glad I wasn't the only one who stopped and giggled at that.

Shack, please feel free to carry on being the guy who charts this for everybody. I'm sure you understand exactly how much work that is now.