I found this site the a couple of weeks ago. He did statistics for all the teams and their odds of reaching a rd.
Atlanta
Seed Team Round 2 Round 3 Regionals Semis Finals Champion
2 Texas 92.83% 75.00% 55.11% 34.80% 22.16% 14.05%
1 Duke 97.45% 80.24% 57.34% 32.83% 19.71% 11.77%
3 Iowa 87.08% 54.50% 21.90% 9.85% 4.46% 1.99%
4 LSU 77.23% 44.15% 17.54% 7.10% 3.03% 1.28%
12 Texas A&M 62.84% 33.86% 12.73% 4.88% 1.97% 0.79%
6 West Virginia 59.41% 27.53% 8.99% 3.31% 1.22% 0.44%
7 California 51.90% 12.36% 5.13% 1.62% 0.51% 0.16%
10 NC State 48.10% 10.88% 4.32% 1.30% 0.39% 0.12%
5 Syracuse 37.16% 15.47% 4.22% 1.17% 0.34% 0.10%
11 So. Illinois 40.59% 15.37% 3.94% 1.14% 0.33% 0.09%
9 UNC-Wilm. 53.50% 10.92% 4.07% 1.04% 0.28% 0.07%
8 George Wash. 46.50% 8.56% 2.92% 0.67% 0.16% 0.04%
13 Iona 22.77% 6.52% 1.17% 0.21% 0.04% 0.01%
15 Penn 7.17% 1.76% 0.33% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00%
14 N'western St. 12.92% 2.60% 0.28% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00%
16 Southern 2.55% 0.28% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Oakland
Seed Team Round 2 Round 3 Regionals Semis Finals Champion
4 Kansas 78.93% 54.37% 38.45% 25.92% 14.72% 9.01%
2 UCLA 95.39% 70.86% 53.75% 29.49% 14.80% 8.09%
5 Pitt 81.35% 34.47% 19.87% 10.81% 4.64% 2.19%
1 Memphis 86.40% 52.89% 22.30% 11.60% 4.70% 2.10%
8 Arkansas 72.27% 36.08% 13.45% 6.32% 2.26% 0.90%
11 San Diego St. 55.81% 34.29% 12.35% 4.17% 1.25% 0.42%
7 Marquette 62.35% 19.94% 11.30% 3.88% 1.18% 0.40%
6 Indiana 44.19% 24.66% 7.68% 2.23% 0.57% 0.16%
3 Gonzaga 56.26% 24.58% 7.06% 1.88% 0.44% 0.11%
13 Bradley 21.07% 8.23% 3.31% 1.25% 0.34% 0.10%
10 Alabama 37.65% 8.61% 3.81% 0.93% 0.20% 0.05%
14 Xavier 43.74% 16.47% 3.97% 0.88% 0.17% 0.04%
9 Bucknell 27.73% 8.15% 1.58% 0.42% 0.08% 0.02%
12 Kent State 18.65% 2.93% 0.73% 0.17% 0.03% 0.00%
16 Oral Roberts 13.60% 2.88% 0.32% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00%
15 Belmont 4.61% 0.58% 0.08% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Washington
Seed Team Round 2 Round 3 Regionals Semis Finals Champion
1 UConn 94.79% 73.74% 49.55% 32.74% 20.97% 11.55%
3 North Carolina 89.81% 65.88% 49.40% 26.90% 16.03% 8.08%
4 Illinois 69.71% 41.74% 19.10% 10.52% 5.52% 2.39%
5 Washington 75.34% 39.34% 16.61% 8.55% 4.16% 1.65%
2 Tennessee 77.53% 50.47% 20.24% 7.32% 2.99% 0.97%
6 Michigan St. 58.46% 20.10% 11.29% 3.86% 1.50% 0.46%
8 Kentucky 64.43% 18.55% 7.82% 3.28% 1.28% 0.39%
7 Wichita St. 58.37% 26.14% 7.81% 2.05% 0.62% 0.14%
11 George Mason 41.54% 11.57% 5.55% 1.52% 0.48% 0.11%
13 Air Force 30.29% 12.23% 3.45% 1.25% 0.41% 0.11%
10 Seton Hall 41.63% 15.47% 3.67% 0.75% 0.18% 0.03%
9 UAB 35.57% 6.83% 1.99% 0.59% 0.16% 0.03%
12 Utah State 24.66% 6.69% 1.39% 0.38% 0.09% 0.02%
15 Winthrop 22.47% 7.93% 1.38% 0.20% 0.04% 0.00%
14 Murray St. 10.19% 2.45% 0.66% 0.09% 0.01% 0.00%
16 Albany 5.21% 0.88% 0.10% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
Minneapolis
Seed Team Round 2 Round 3 Regionals Semis Finals Champion
1 Villanova 96.12% 68.64% 50.72% 32.01% 17.73% 9.01%
3 Florida 83.38% 59.56% 34.03% 18.37% 8.85% 3.86%
2 Ohio State 90.75% 56.79% 32.66% 17.11% 7.97% 3.34%
7 Georgetown 63.18% 29.18% 14.57% 6.53% 2.55% 0.88%
4 Boston College 65.04% 38.44% 14.23% 6.12% 2.19% 0.69%
8 Arizona 56.56% 18.82% 10.58% 4.65% 1.70% 0.55%
5 Nevada 75.40% 39.42% 13.54% 5.44% 1.81% 0.53%
6 Oklahoma 63.10% 24.48% 9.68% 3.59% 1.14% 0.31%
9 Wisconsin 43.44% 12.18% 6.07% 2.29% 0.71% 0.19%
10 Northern Iowa 36.82% 12.64% 4.75% 1.56% 0.43% 0.10%
13 Pacific 34.96% 15.55% 3.82% 1.12% 0.26% 0.05%
11 UW-Milwaukee 36.90% 10.33% 2.89% 0.76% 0.17% 0.03%
14 So. Alabama 16.62% 5.62% 1.23% 0.25% 0.04% 0.01%
12 Montana 24.60% 6.59% 1.00% 0.19% 0.03% 0.00%
15 Davidson 9.25% 1.39% 0.19% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
16 Monm./Hamp. 3.88% 0.36% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
http://kenpom.com/blog/
Oh yeah I picked Winthrop over Tennesee. Winthrop lost to Memphis by 10 at Memphis. Two weeks later Tennesee lost to Memphis by 9 at Memphis. Tennessee has some injury problems Dane Bradshaw is going to have off season wrist surgery, and it was a secret until the SEC tournament. He is like their 6th man, and they haven't played well since he injured it losing 3 out four. Probably won't happen, but I thought it looked interesting.