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neo_wolf
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 10:19 pm
Posts: 11028
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Remember that for the past 2 week's the friday numbers have been overestimated.
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| Sat Jun 04, 2005 1:53 pm |
 
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Michael.
No Wire Tampons!
Joined: Sat Jan 08, 2005 12:27 am
Posts: 23283
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Well things dont look too bady for my predictions
_________________
I'm out.
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| Sat Jun 04, 2005 1:53 pm |
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Jiffy
Forum General
Joined: Sat Dec 18, 2004 2:27 pm
Posts: 6152
Location: New York
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neo_wolf wrote: Remember that for the past 2 week's the friday numbers have been overestimated. Wasn't TLY underestimated last Friday?
Really fun weekend!
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| Sat Jun 04, 2005 1:55 pm |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am
Posts: 15497
Location: Everywhere
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The Cinderella man numbers are going to kill me especially in the price is right.
Well at least I was high for TLY and madagascar in the price is right and marathon. The average expectation for TLY seemed to be around 140m total, while for madagascar it was around 170m. Both will get far more. madagascar looks like it could clear 200m, while TLY should be Sandler's highest grossing film.
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| Sat Jun 04, 2005 1:59 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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BJs Sith Estimate:
Fri: 7.276m +86%
Sat: 12.369m +70%
Sun: 9.401m -24%
Wknd: 29.046m -47.5%
_________________The Force Awakens
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| Sat Jun 04, 2005 2:07 pm |
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scottb
Star Trek XI
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 11:50 pm
Posts: 354
Location: Cleveland, OH, USA
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My weekend predictions based on these numbers
1. Madagascar - $31.1m
2. The Longest Yard - $28.1m
3. Revenge of the Sith - $27.6m
4. Cinderella Man - $22.3m
5. Sisterhood of Traveling Pants - $13.4m
6. Lords of Dogtown - $9.6m
7. Monster-in-Law - $6.2m
8. Crash - $4.3m
9. Kicking and Screaming - $2.1m
10. The Interpreter - $1.2m
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All time North American box office.
1. Titanic - $600.8m
2. Star Wars - $461.0m
3. Shrek 2 - $441.2m
4. E.T. the Extra Terrestrial - $435.1m
5. The Phantom Menace - $431.1m
6. Spider-Man - $403.7m
7. Revenge of the Sith - $380.3m
8. Return of the King - $377.0m
9. Spider-Man 2 - $373.6m
10. The Passion of the Christ - $370.8m
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| Sat Jun 04, 2005 2:12 pm |
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A. G.
Draughty
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:23 am
Posts: 13347
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See this is why I don't play any box office games anymore. The movie market isn't rational.  What a strange weekend.
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| Sat Jun 04, 2005 2:16 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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BJs Cinderella Man Estimate:
Fri: 6.076m
Sat: 8.598m +42%
Sun: 6.191m -28%
Wknd: 20.865m
_________________The Force Awakens
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| Sat Jun 04, 2005 2:18 pm |
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dolcevita
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:24 pm
Posts: 16061
Location: The Damage Control Table
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I have a question. I read the first page of responses and everyone was so shocked. Why? Is it that all of them are alot higher than expected? Or the order that they are grossing in? The only big surprise to me is maybe TLY, because it only made 50 million last weekend, so it looks like its only going to drop 40% or something, which is really small drop considering. What's the big shock? I feel like I'm missing something. Were they all supposed to gross alot lower? Its the first weekend of June...so it's officially summer, which probably helped numbers go up.
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| Sat Jun 04, 2005 2:18 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am
Posts: 32582
Location: the last free city
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Fri: 7.22m +85%
Sat: 11.55m +60%
Sun: 8.08m -30%
Wknd: 26.85m (around 52% drop)
_________________
Is it 2028 yet?
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| Sat Jun 04, 2005 2:21 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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Archie Gates wrote: See this is why I don't play any box office games anymore. The movie market isn't rational. What a strange weekend. The Longest Yard was such a good movie, and everyone on here who saw it agreed. It might be a stupid movie, but people are actually enjoying it (especially teens...), and because of that, great legs. This could make over $170 million.
What's irrational about that?
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| Sat Jun 04, 2005 2:22 pm |
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A. G.
Draughty
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:23 am
Posts: 13347
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dolcevita wrote: I have a question. I read the first page of responses and everyone was so shocked. Why? Is it that all of them are alot higher than expected? Or the order that they are grossing in? The only big surprise to me is maybe TLY, because it only made 50 million last weekend, so it looks like its only going to drop 40% or something, which is really small drop considering. What's the big shock? I feel like I'm missing something. Were they all supposed to gross alot lower? Its the first weekend of June...so it's officially summer, which probably helped numbers go up. The yahoo review thread is usually pretty accurate and going by that, Cinderalla Man looked on course for a 10mish Friday.
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| Sat Jun 04, 2005 2:22 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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dolcevita wrote: I have a question. I read the first page of responses and everyone was so shocked. Why? Is it that all of them are alot higher than expected? Or the order that they are grossing in? The only big surprise to me is maybe TLY, because it only made 50 million last weekend, so it looks like its only going to drop 40% or something, which is really small drop considering. What's the big shock? I feel like I'm missing something. Were they all supposed to gross alot lower? Its the first weekend of June...so it's officially summer, which probably helped numbers go up. It's a big surprise because...
a) The Longest Yard beat every movie and had an excellent hold considering it's audience
b) All holdovers should have dropped harder because of post-Memorial Day weekend
c) The overpredicing of Cinderella Man didn't pay off
It is a very surprising weekend, indeed.
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| Sat Jun 04, 2005 2:23 pm |
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sako
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 6:07 pm
Posts: 1684
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Great for the top 3, They are doing very well
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| Sat Jun 04, 2005 2:31 pm |
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A. G.
Draughty
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:23 am
Posts: 13347
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Zingaling wrote: Archie Gates wrote: See this is why I don't play any box office games anymore. The movie market isn't rational. What a strange weekend. The Longest Yard was such a good movie, and everyone on here who saw it agreed. It might be a stupid movie, but people are actually enjoying it (especially teens...), and because of that, great legs. This could make over $170 million. What's irrational about that? If it's so logical then how come almost none of the major predictors expected it?
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| Sat Jun 04, 2005 2:38 pm |
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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm
Posts: 48677
Location: Arlington, VA
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Zingaling wrote: Archie Gates wrote: See this is why I don't play any box office games anymore. The movie market isn't rational. What a strange weekend. , and everyone on here who saw it agreed. It might be a stupid movie, but people are actually enjoying it (especially teens...), and because of that, great legs. This could make over $170 million. What's irrational about that? I don't know if "good" is the right word for it.
Entertaining and immensely forgettable? Yes. A finely made film? No.
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| Sat Jun 04, 2005 2:40 pm |
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Schlomo
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Sun Jan 30, 2005 10:09 am
Posts: 1097
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Libs wrote: Zingaling wrote: Archie Gates wrote: See this is why I don't play any box office games anymore. The movie market isn't rational. What a strange weekend. , and everyone on here who saw it agreed. It might be a stupid movie, but people are actually enjoying it (especially teens...), and because of that, great legs. This could make over $170 million. What's irrational about that? I don't know if "good" is the right word for it. Entertaining and immensely forgettable? Yes. A finely made film? No. sorry if I'm wrong, but isn't that your opinion? _________________revolutions wrote: that one dude with the giant ass mi:3 logo
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| Sat Jun 04, 2005 2:42 pm |
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sako
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 6:07 pm
Posts: 1684
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Zingaling wrote: Archie Gates wrote: See this is why I don't play any box office games anymore. The movie market isn't rational. What a strange weekend. The Longest Yard was such a good movie, and everyone on here who saw it agreed. It might be a stupid movie, but people are actually enjoying it (especially teens...), and because of that, great legs. This could make over $170 million. What's irrational about that? I enjoyed it very much as well, and whoever saw in my school liked too.
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| Sat Jun 04, 2005 2:42 pm |
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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm
Posts: 48677
Location: Arlington, VA
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Schlomo wrote: Libs wrote: Zingaling wrote: Archie Gates wrote: See this is why I don't play any box office games anymore. The movie market isn't rational. What a strange weekend. , and everyone on here who saw it agreed. It might be a stupid movie, but people are actually enjoying it (especially teens...), and because of that, great legs. This could make over $170 million. What's irrational about that? I don't know if "good" is the right word for it. Entertaining and immensely forgettable? Yes. A finely made film? No. sorry if I'm wrong, but isn't that your opinion? Yes.
I was just commenting on that because Zingy was saying the reason it held up well was because it was "so good", whereas I think a more likely explanation is that there are no other comedies in the marketplace targeting the demographic.
I'm not saying it was bad, I just don't think it's becoming some word-of-mouth hit or anything.
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| Sat Jun 04, 2005 3:02 pm |
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MovieDude
Where will you be?
Joined: Tue Dec 21, 2004 4:50 am
Posts: 11675
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AHAHAHAHAHA! :mrgreen: Ooooooh man is this sweet. To think that people tried to laugh me off stage when I was the one guy that said The Longest Yard would be #1 for the weekend. It might not, but I almost nailed it.
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| Sat Jun 04, 2005 3:04 pm |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am
Posts: 15497
Location: Everywhere
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 Libs wrote: Schlomo wrote: Libs wrote: Zingaling wrote: Archie Gates wrote: See this is why I don't play any box office games anymore. The movie market isn't rational. What a strange weekend. , and everyone on here who saw it agreed. It might be a stupid movie, but people are actually enjoying it (especially teens...), and because of that, great legs. This could make over $170 million. What's irrational about that? I don't know if "good" is the right word for it. Entertaining and immensely forgettable? Yes. A finely made film? No. sorry if I'm wrong, but isn't that your opinion? Yes. I was just commenting on that because Zingy was saying the reason it held up well was because it was "so good", whereas I think a more likely explanation is that there are no other comedies in the marketplace targeting the demographic. I'm not saying it was bad, I just don't think it's becoming some word-of-mouth hit or anything. I agree with you on the cause of the hold. It was showing frontloading with all the daily numbers, so I think it's soewhat naturally frontloaded, but lucked out this weekend. However, wom does seem to be quite strong. It has the third highest rating at yahoo among fils in release, just behind Crash, and ahead of Kung fu Hustle and Cinderella man. In any case, a B+ is increasingly impressive at yahoo with the way the grades have been dropping. I think the wom will really show up later in the run.
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| Sat Jun 04, 2005 3:13 pm |
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DP07
The Thirteenth Floor
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am
Posts: 15497
Location: Everywhere
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MovieDude wrote: AHAHAHAHAHA! :mrgreen: Ooooooh man is this sweet. To think that people tried to laugh me off stage when I was the one guy that said The Longest Yard would be #1 for the weekend. It might not, but I almost nailed it. might not? I don't think it stands a chance at holding off madagascar. :wink: Still a nice number.
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| Sat Jun 04, 2005 3:15 pm |
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Jiffy
Forum General
Joined: Sat Dec 18, 2004 2:27 pm
Posts: 6152
Location: New York
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Looks like Sith has fastest to $300m locked up.
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| Sat Jun 04, 2005 3:26 pm |
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JMorphin
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 11:58 am
Posts: 1335
Location: Austin, TX
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Muhahaha, my crowd report projections are superior to Yahoo for once, right on the money on the openers, well I guess Dogtown did ok at some places :wink:
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"Do or do not, there is no try."
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| Sat Jun 04, 2005 3:36 pm |
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baumer72
Mod Team Leader
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 11:00 pm
Posts: 7087
Location: Crystal Lake
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I know a lot of younger people that have seen LY have really enjoyed it. That is what makes this not so much of a surprise that it did this well.
As for Sith, fastest to 300 is locked up and it should do about 27.5 for the weekend.
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Ron Burgundy: Brick, I've been meaning to talk to you about that. You should find yourself a safehouse or a relative close by. Lay low for a while, because you're probably wanted for murder.
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| Sat Jun 04, 2005 3:37 pm |
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