Remember that for the past 2 week's the friday numbers have been overestimated.

Well things dont look too bady for my predictions

Wasn't TLY underestimated last Friday?

Really fun weekend!

The Cinderella man numbers are going to kill me especially in the price is right.

Well at least I was high for TLY and madagascar in the price is right and marathon. The average expectation for TLY seemed to be around 140m total, while for madagascar it was around 170m. Both will get far more. madagascar looks like it could clear 200m, while TLY should be Sandler's highest grossing film.

BJs Sith Estimate:

Fri: 7.276m +86%

Sat: 12.369m +70%

Sun: 9.401m -24%

Wknd: 29.046m -47.5%

My weekend predictions based on these numbers


1. Madagascar - $31.1m
2. The Longest Yard - $28.1m
3. Revenge of the Sith - $27.6m
4. Cinderella Man - $22.3m
5. Sisterhood of Traveling Pants - $13.4m
6. Lords of Dogtown - $9.6m
7. Monster-in-Law - $6.2m
8. Crash - $4.3m
9. Kicking and Screaming - $2.1m
10. The Interpreter - $1.2m

See this is why I don't play any box office games anymore. The movie market isn't rational. What a strange weekend.

BJs Cinderella Man Estimate:

Fri: 6.076m

Sat: 8.598m +42%

Sun: 6.191m -28%

Wknd: 20.865m

I have a question. I read the first page of responses and everyone was so shocked. Why? Is it that all of them are alot higher than expected? Or the order that they are grossing in? The only big surprise to me is maybe TLY, because it only made 50 million last weekend, so it looks like its only going to drop 40% or something, which is really small drop considering. What's the big shock? I feel like I'm missing something. Were they all supposed to gross alot lower? Its the first weekend of June...so it's officially summer, which probably helped numbers go up.

Fri: 7.22m +85%

Sat: 11.55m +60%

Sun: 8.08m -30%

Wknd: 26.85m (around 52% drop)

The Longest Yard was such a good movie, and everyone on here who saw it agreed. It might be a stupid movie, but people are actually enjoying it (especially teens...), and because of that, great legs. This could make over $170 million.

What's irrational about that?

The yahoo review thread is usually pretty accurate and going by that, Cinderalla Man looked on course for a 10mish Friday.

It's a big surprise because...

a) The Longest Yard beat every movie and had an excellent hold considering it's audience
b) All holdovers should have dropped harder because of post-Memorial Day weekend
c) The overpredicing of Cinderella Man didn't pay off

It is a very surprising weekend, indeed.

Great for the top 3, They are doing very well

If it's so logical then how come almost none of the major predictors expected it?

I don't know if "good" is the right word for it.

Entertaining and immensely forgettable? Yes. A finely made film? No.

sorry if I'm wrong, but isn't that your opinion?

I enjoyed it very much as well, and whoever saw in my school liked too.

Yes.

I was just commenting on that because Zingy was saying the reason it held up well was because it was "so good", whereas I think a more likely explanation is that there are no other comedies in the marketplace targeting the demographic.

I'm not saying it was bad, I just don't think it's becoming some word-of-mouth hit or anything.

AHAHAHAHAHA! :mrgreen: Ooooooh man is this sweet. To think that people tried to laugh me off stage when I was the one guy that said The Longest Yard would be #1 for the weekend. It might not, but I almost nailed it.

I agree with you on the cause of the hold. It was showing frontloading with all the daily numbers, so I think it's soewhat naturally frontloaded, but lucked out this weekend. However, wom does seem to be quite strong. It has the third highest rating at yahoo among fils in release, just behind Crash, and ahead of Kung fu Hustle and Cinderella man. In any case, a B+ is increasingly impressive at yahoo with the way the grades have been dropping. I think the wom will really show up later in the run.

might not? I don't think it stands a chance at holding off madagascar. :wink: Still a nice number.

Looks like Sith has fastest to $300m locked up.

Muhahaha, my crowd report projections are superior to Yahoo for once, right on the money on the openers, well I guess Dogtown did ok at some places :wink:

I know a lot of younger people that have seen LY have really enjoyed it. That is what makes this not so much of a surprise that it did this well.

As for Sith, fastest to 300 is locked up and it should do about 27.5 for the weekend.