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 Disney v. Sony: Which studio will win the summer? 

Which studio will win the summer?
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 Disney v. Sony: Which studio will win the summer? 
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College Boy Z

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Disney.


Wed Apr 12, 2006 1:28 am
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Disney (there is always a surprise hit emerging out of somewhere aside from the two obvious hits).

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Wed Apr 12, 2006 1:33 am
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Disney.

Either POTC2 or Cars might beat the WB's trio alone.

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Wed Apr 12, 2006 1:37 am
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College Boy Z

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Oh, I forgot to take into account WB's full line-up.

WB
Poseidon - $135 million
The Lake House - $40 million (Keanu Reeves, Sandra Bullock chick flick)
Superman Returns - $215 million
Lady in the Water - $110 million
The Ant Bully - $50 million
The Reaping - $35 million
Beerfest - $30 million

Total: $615 million

Disney
Goal! - $20 million
Cars - $250 million
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest - $325 million
Apocalypto - $40 million

Total: $635 million

It'll be close.


Wed Apr 12, 2006 1:51 am
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I see Sony beating WB. There is something creepily wrong with all their movies.

SUPERMAN will be lucky enough to beat BATMAN BEGINS.

SO BV will kill anything in its path.


Last edited by getluv on Wed Apr 12, 2006 3:45 am, edited 1 time in total.



Wed Apr 12, 2006 1:53 am
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Disney
Goal! - $35m
Cars - $315m
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest - $588m
Apocalypto - $65 million

Total: $1,003b


WB
Poseidon - $165m
The Lake House - $85m (for some unknown reason I want to see this)
Superman Returns - $406m
Lady in the Water - $132m
The Ant Bully - $60m
The Reaping - $40m
Beerfest - $55m

Total: $941m


Disney will win :biggrin:

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Last edited by BJ on Wed Apr 12, 2006 2:23 am, edited 1 time in total.



Wed Apr 12, 2006 2:14 am
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WB
Poseidon $150
The Lake House $50
Superman Returns $410
Lady in the Water $175
The Ant Bully $75
The Reaping $40
Beerfest $50

Total: $950

Disney
Goal! - $30
Cars - $200
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest - $300
Apocalypto $50 million

Total: $580

:D WB & SR WINS!! Not even close. :tongue:

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Wed Apr 12, 2006 2:20 am
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POTC 2 will beat WB's entire lineup. :)


Wed Apr 12, 2006 2:26 am
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Disney.


Wed Apr 12, 2006 2:38 am
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Superfreak
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Post Re: WB v. Disney: Which studio will win the summer?
WB line-up
Poseidon-175
The Lake House-45
Superman Returns-325
Lady in the Water-135
The Ant Bully-55
The Reaping -40
Beerfest-65

total:840

Disney line-up
Goal!-40 million
Cars-240 million
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest-370 million
Apocalypto-60

total-710


Wed Apr 12, 2006 6:55 am
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Superfreak
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Zingaling wrote:
Oh, I forgot to take into account WB's full line-up.

WB
Poseidon - $135 million
The Lake House - $40 million (Keanu Reeves, Sandra Bullock chick flick)
Superman Returns - $215 million
Lady in the Water - $110 million
The Ant Bully - $50 million
The Reaping - $35 million
Beerfest - $30 million

Total: $615 million

Disney
Goal! - $20 million
Cars - $250 million
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest - $325 million
Apocalypto - $40 million

Total: $635 million

It'll be close.


see i dont think your under estimating any disney film. maybe pirates by a tad but thats it. but your clearly underestimating wbs biggst films-poseidon andespeciall superman.

i say wb has more breakout potential and will win without any film totally breakng out, just they all do a little bit


Wed Apr 12, 2006 6:57 am
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Disney, unless The Ant Bully somehow breaks out.

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Wed Apr 12, 2006 7:04 am
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POTC2 + Cars > Superman + Poseidon + Lady in the Water

So Disney will win.

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Wed Apr 12, 2006 11:22 am
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Magnus101 wrote:
trixster wrote:
POTC2 + Cars > Superman + Poseidon + Lady in the Water

So Disney will win.


What people fail to see is that the duo of POTC2/Cars will probably beat the WB trio, but the fact is that WB has more smaller films being released this summer that will probably give it the edge over Disney.

Ok, maybe I should put it this way...

POTC2 + Cars >>>> Superman + Poseidon + Lady in the Water

The Disney duo will make at least $600 million in itself, something that the WB trio won't even get close to, so the smaller films won't make a difference.

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Magic Mike wrote:
zwackerm wrote:
If John Wick 2 even makes 30 million I will eat 1,000 shoes.


Same.


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Wed Apr 12, 2006 11:52 am
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Extraordinary

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Lady in the Water imo will not do well considering its coming off of the Village. Poseidon I also see massively disappointing. BV will easily win the summer, but I see #2 going to Sony:

Click (Sandler) $135 m
Da Vinci Code $300 m
Little Man (Wayans comedy, opening against POTC 2, but should still do decent) $60 m
Monster House (animated, coming out in July) $60 m
Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby (Ferrell) $95 m
Zoom (Tim Allen) $60 m

$710 m

Paramount could also sneak out of nowhere and do really well this summer as well. They have the MI3/Over The Hedge combo. That could be $400 m just from May films.


Wed Apr 12, 2006 12:07 pm
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Goal! won't do anymore than $10m.


Thu Apr 13, 2006 3:53 am
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Disney :biggrin:

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Thu Apr 13, 2006 3:59 am
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While I am giving the edge to Disney right now, Warner has a lot more petential to have a few break outs that could put it on top... will be interesting to see...

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Thu Apr 13, 2006 9:26 am
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Disney!

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Thu Apr 13, 2006 12:02 pm
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Disney, barring some amazing upset from WB.

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Thu Apr 13, 2006 7:05 pm
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I think Sony can beat WB as well.


Thu Apr 13, 2006 8:40 pm
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WB has quantity of films but none are locks or all that convincing.

BV is sure to get a minimum of $450m from the Cars/POTC combo and can go as high as $650m.

I actually feel Sony will steel the win:

Click (Sandler) $200 m
Da Vinci Code $300 m
Little Man $50 m
Monster House $65 m
Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby (Ferrell) $100 m
Zoom (Tim Allen) $55 m

IMO its a battle between Sony and BV for No.1 with WB in 3rd, but depending how things pan out - its a 3 way battle.

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Thu Apr 13, 2006 9:33 pm
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I say Disney will win.

There's just something that doesn't feel right about WB's lineup. Poseidon just gives off the scent of dissapointment and mediocrity. If it weren't directed by Wolfgang I would say it would completely flop. Right now I'd say 80 mil. No one knows the actual quality of Superman so to say it will gross 300+ is real iffy and Lady in the Water could break out or it could just do 80 mil.

Disney on the other hand has one guaranteed 200+ grosser and one guarenteed 300+ grosser. Though Apocalypto has been moved to December, Goal could do decently.

I say

WB
Poseidon - 80.0 mil.
The Lake House - 75.0 mil.
Superman Returns - 250.0 mil.
Lady in the Water - 80.0 mil.
The Ant Bully - 60.0 mil.
The Reaping - 45.0 mil.
Beerfest - 15.0 mil.

while Disney has
Goal! - 25.0 mil.
Cars - 235.0 mil
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest - 335.0 mil.
Step Up - ? Out Aug 11th
Invincible - Mark Wahlberg Sports Movie - 60.0 mil comes out Aug 25th

So WB = 605.0 to Disney = 655.0


Fri Apr 14, 2006 4:47 am
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Magnus101 wrote:
MadGez wrote:
WB has quantity of films but none are locks or all that convincing.

BV is sure to get a minimum of $450m from the Cars/POTC combo and can go as high as $650m.

I actually feel Sony will steel the win:

Click (Sandler) $200 m
Da Vinci Code $300 m
Little Man $50 m
Monster House $65 m
Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby (Ferrell) $100 m
Zoom (Tim Allen) $55 m

IMO its a battle between Sony and BV for No.1 with WB in 3rd, but depending how things pan out - its a 3 way battle.


I think you're over-predicting every single Sony movie. I don't see the Sony movies combined grossing more than 600m at the best, while 600m for WB and Disney is about the minimum and both studios will most likely gross near 700m.


I think Gez's numbers are just as normal as everyone else's in here.


Fri Apr 14, 2006 12:16 pm
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Magnus101 wrote:
getluv wrote:
Magnus101 wrote:
MadGez wrote:
WB has quantity of films but none are locks or all that convincing.

BV is sure to get a minimum of $450m from the Cars/POTC combo and can go as high as $650m.

I actually feel Sony will steel the win:

Click (Sandler) $200 m
Da Vinci Code $300 m
Little Man $50 m
Monster House $65 m
Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby (Ferrell) $100 m
Zoom (Tim Allen) $55 m

IMO its a battle between Sony and BV for No.1 with WB in 3rd, but depending how things pan out - its a 3 way battle.


I think you're over-predicting every single Sony movie. I don't see the Sony movies combined grossing more than 600m at the best, while 600m for WB and Disney is about the minimum and both studios will most likely gross near 700m.


I think Gez's numbers are just as normal as everyone else's in here.


300m for DVC? 200m for Click? 100m for Talladega Nights?

Not really normal. All of those numbers are near-max for those movies. DVC I first beleived would be huge(before I saw the full trailer) but its not going to attract that much of the general public and not all the book-readers are going to go see it. It'll be big, but 300m is near its max.

Click would need to be a comedy as good as WC to get to 200m. Its opening will probably be in 40m-50m range. Best multiplier I can see it getting is 3.5, which is actually better than Mr. Deeds which opened at the same slot in 2002. 175m max for it.

Talledga Nights just looks stupid, and Will Ferrell isn't that big of a BO draw to get a movie to 100m. It MAY get 100m but that would only happend by the off-chance that the movie is good.


Hold on a second, you think it looks stupid.

Stop the Press!

We have to take in the stupidty (for the lack of a better word) of Magnus.

I'm sorry Mag, but if you think SUPERMAN is heading way north of 250m then we have to look at the stupidity of a male who pees on a pregnant stick!

These threads are a fucking farce. I love studio head-to-head games, but if I read your post correctly again, you agree partly that Gez's Sony prediction is a valid one. I think you've contradicted yourself many times on BOM, but this is no exception. You shouldn't be predicting for films you 'love'. Haven't you learned from past mistakes. Because your so far off, i think your intelligence is somewhere in Canada.


Fri Apr 14, 2006 12:38 pm
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