With MI:3 disappointing, I bet Poseidon gets more screens than expected.

You can't really compare this to MI3. That was a shocking bomb for a ton of different reasons most didn't see coming, so say ing just because Poseidon isn't tracking as well it'll bomb doesn't really gel. Not that I think it'll be a particularly big hit or pass 40 million, but still...

ehem.

56 mil

i hope you guys have marked it by now.

bABA...

Is that your opening weekend or total prediction?

I believe opening...

Well I say 36/102
No change anymore. Thats my last word.
Anything lower would mean that we are going to have a weak sad summer....

i think you also forgot to mention Josh Lucas and Emmy Rossum. they are bigger names than Fergie, and people are probably not going to flock to see Fergie unless she's singing "My Humps", which is unlikely, plus this is her first movie

Heh? I'm not sure I understand. I'm purely going by some quantifiable measures here. There actually were palpable signs that M:I3 wouldn't open as well as expected, as DP did point out ahead of its release. The signs were ignored because we didn't believe it meant anything, even though those signs have been proven historically to mean something. Why? Because most of us couldn't find other justifications that M:I3 could open that low (I certainly didn't find any when writing my predictions), so we dismissed them. Now we have been shown wrong, it's time to put some weights into those real pre-release numbers again, even if it's against intuition for some of people. And I'm not talking about Reel Source tracking here. If you compare the various Yahoo charts for the two movies at the same point in time before the release, Poseidon is trailing big time in pretty much every one. The only one it's leading is buzz index, which it has a score of 6 and is ranked, while M:I3 wasn't last Sunday. The problem is unlike M:I3, Poseidon didn't have 3 films to spread the score with, so a 6 is not very good, and we couldn't say it's in fact leading. By this time, M:I3 was already on moviefone for almost a week, but Poseidon is nowhere to be seen yet, and the competition is actually weaker considering Stick It and Hoot are occupying the No. 4 and No.5 spots.

http://www.variety.com/article/VR111794 ... id=13&cs=1

I would not be surprised if Poseidon barely gets to $20M opening weekend.

i dont know...poseidon is the kinda movie that over preforms..is bigger then expected. its predicted to bomb not due to negative buzz or bad reviews...people just thought compitition would overwelm. as now, thats no longer the case, atleast for next weekend.

It's not just the competition. The marketing isn't that good.

The marketing has been fine.

The problem with the movie is that it really has nothing to distinguish itself from any other disaster movie. Even the money shot of the huge tidal wave seems too reminiscent of The Perfect Storm.

Heh in retrospect I'm not sure exactly what I was trying to say in my post. One thing I'd point out today though is that I think it's a bit unfair to compare Poseidon to MI3, DaVinci Code, and X-Men 3 because they all have brand name built in crowds, whereas I think Poseidon is more likely to attract older audiences who aren't as likely to say they'd see the movie well in advance, but rather when they read the good reviews (I'm assuming it'll finish in the 60% range) or remember the original. Just a thought, though to be fair it could be wrong as I'm not sure how tracking of that sort usually works in regards to older-skewing movies.

I do agree that a lot depend on how a market survey is conducted. If the question is "what will your first choice be among M:I3, Poseidon, The Da Vince Code, and X3?", Poseidon would be lucky to get over 3%, as the "most anticipated summer film" poll at BOM showed, but it has no bearing on the opening weekend projection since the four don't compete on the same weekend.

True.

In fact we first saw that big tidal wave in Deep Impact. Then we saw it in Perfect Storm. Then we saw it again in The Day After Tomorrow. Poseidon is already a FOURTH film in recent years to use a big tidal wave as it's money shot, and it doesn't quite have the impact it used to have.

And of course there were already two highly popular sinking ship movies fairly recently: Titanic and Perfect Storm.

I think Poseidon looks like good fun, and I will most likely see it, but it looks generic. I think it will be one of the big losers of the summer, thanks to the overblown budget.

Variety and Hollywood Reporter have both added their reviews. On RT they both were considered negatives, but on Metacritic they were each marked as "70 out of 100". Having read them both, the latter sounds much closer to the truth. If reviews ended up being at that level, I think they'd be good enough to entice a lot of the older potential audiences.

It's now at 46% with 13 reviews, 6 positive 7 negative. Or 8 positive, 5 negative and 62% if you count Variety/Hollywood Reporter's as fresh. It's clearly not going to make back it's budget opening weekend, but I really think some people are going too low simply because the box office isn't doing great so they want to call the "bomb" ahead of time. I remember similar things happening when Van Helsing and Troy opened to dissapointing numbers.

thats 56 million people. 56 million.

hmmm, 19.7 OW

Having seen Poseidon, I can honestly say that it's a better movie than Perfect Storm and a MUCH better movie than Day After Tomorrow. It's not a GREAT movie, but it certainly is not a complete waste of time like so many other summer movies. I still think it will make over $35 million this weekend, maybe closer to $40 with a huge drop next weekend. If someone asked, I'd see it again... as long as the were paying.

I'd say 42m-OW 137m-Total

It may mean very little, but presales for tomorrow's screening at my theater have already more than doubled MI: 3's. Poseidon has 28 sold compared to just 12 for MI: 3 last week.

Based on last night's screening, which was about 90% full, and the audience's reaction to the film:

31/80

Wednesday's buzz numbers are updated. Poseidon stays at 8 (on a side note, The Da Vinci Code overtook the top spot with a score of 44, although it would have trailed both Spider-Man and X-Men if you combined the 3 movies in each together).