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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 23250 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Seriously - superman is being over predicted. I know alot of non regular movie goers who cant wait for X3 - but Superman look like a rehash of the 1978 version. The way I see it, WB i releasing it so it will dissapoint. A week later POTC2 opens. I guess BV sees Superman as no greater threat than T3 was back in 03.
Superman will be solid with $180-$210m.
X3 is aiming for $220-$240m.
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Tue Apr 11, 2006 9:01 am |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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Joseba B-Loki wrote: come on people, X3 is helmed by brett ratner who sucks ass. it will be one of the bad superhero movies, critics will hate it and it should fall short of 200m. SR will win this by a mile.
Lol, you have no clue.
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Tue Apr 11, 2006 9:24 am |
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bABA
Commander and Chef
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 12:56 am Posts: 30505 Location: Tonight ... YOU!
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This is a toughie
Xmen is an established and proven franchise and is following the comic book story line. However, the people helming it aren't the same
Superman became a dead franchise yet WB and the director are taking a serious and positive approach to it.
Xmen is doing a terrific job of informing the market about the film and what is in store. Sadly, outside of fans who love it, the reaction has been ... mixed.
Superman has had shit ass marketing. The only good piece of marketing they have is that shield poster and a showest reel that about 900 people saw. Yet superman is the most famous and most iconic of all heroes.
Xmen opens in May, possibility of breaking out completely. SUperman opens July, guaranteed numbers .. just not so high.
Can't say really. I can see them both disappoint. I can see them both make it big. For now, I'll go with Supes just edging xmen cause i have a feeling that xmen won't have good legs due to a mixed word of mouth.
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Tue Apr 11, 2006 9:34 am |
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bABA
Commander and Chef
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 12:56 am Posts: 30505 Location: Tonight ... YOU!
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by good WOM, i mean it can pull of those 2.85 mulitpliers. i still think x3 will open huge. just won't have a good multiplier.
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Tue Apr 11, 2006 10:13 am |
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GuybrushX McMurphy
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Tue Jan 18, 2005 1:28 pm Posts: 2799 Location: Germany
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I'm sure X-Men 3 will be even worse, less interesting and even more tedious than its two predecessors. In other words: It will most likely win this box office race.
_________________ "Acting is the only thing I'm good at." - Freddie Prinze jr.
Ator: I love you. Sunya: And I love you. Ator: Why can't we marry? Sunya: Ator, we are brother and sister. Ator: I'll talk with our father.
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Tue Apr 11, 2006 5:04 pm |
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Malcolm
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Well, judging by reviews and box office, most people liked both X-Men and X2. I loved both X-Men and X2, but maybe since you hate them i should rethink things.
X3, even with what will be extreme frontloadedness, is still sure to make more than SR. X3 will finish in the 230-260mil range, while SR has too many cons and not nearly enough pros in terms of marketing and hype. Let's leave out quality for a minute, or even say that SR is going to be a great movie (yeah...right). That doesn't matter. It won't have a huge opening as its marketing is non-existant (enough of this "but they're REALLY going to push it in the last month before it comes out. REALLY") and even with good WOM it is going against POTC2 in its 2nd weekend.
This isn't like Batman Begins either. BB came off an 8 yr absence from the Batman and Robin debacle, had pretty okay marketing (better than SR), and got great reviews. It had a good opening weekend, and managed to get to 205mil.
SR is coming off of...nothing. The last superman movie was almost 20 yrs ago, and the last WELL RECEIVED superman movie was over 25 yrs ago. People don't care about superman anymore. Add to that the fact that the teaser was yawn inspiring, and what do you get? A sub-par opening weekend, and mediocre legs that may not even get it to 200mil.
X3 is going to have a colossal opening to make up for its crappy legs. If X3 manages a 115mil opening (4 day) and gets just a 2.1mult then that still puts it at a 240mil total.
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Tue Apr 11, 2006 5:23 pm |
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bABA
Commander and Chef
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 12:56 am Posts: 30505 Location: Tonight ... YOU!
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x3 won't open to it.
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Tue Apr 11, 2006 6:08 pm |
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El Maskado
Arrrrrrrrrrgggghhhhhhhhhh!
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 8:17 pm Posts: 21572
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bump time. Anyone change their minds after the trailer?
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Tue May 02, 2006 4:15 pm |
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Tuukka
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Sun Apr 17, 2005 8:35 am Posts: 1830 Location: Helsinki, Finland
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I have to admit that the Superman trailer is rather underwhelming. I definitely give X-Men 3 the edge over Superman now. I wouldn't be surprise if Superman falls way under predictions. They really have to save with TV-marketing, the trailer just doesn't work at all.
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Tue May 02, 2006 4:22 pm |
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trixster
loyalfromlondon
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 6:31 pm Posts: 19697 Location: ville-marie
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X3, easily. Even with the director switch and the stupid name, X3's got a bigger fanbase and it's a sequel people actually want. No one really asked for another Superman movie, but people want to see the finale to the X-Men trilogy. So this is a no-brainer.
X3 - $240 million
Superman Returns - $190 million
_________________Magic Mike wrote: zwackerm wrote: If John Wick 2 even makes 30 million I will eat 1,000 shoes. Same. Algren wrote: I don't think. I predict. 
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Tue May 02, 2006 5:24 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32578 Location: the last free city
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SR $400m , X3 $250-$275m  excellent gross for both films.
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Wed May 03, 2006 2:23 am |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 23250 Location: Melbourne Australia
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trixster wrote: X3, easily. Even with the director switch and the stupid name, X3's got a bigger fanbase and it's a sequel people actually want. No one really asked for another Superman movie, but people want to see the finale to the X-Men trilogy. So this is a no-brainer.
X3 - $240 million Superman Returns - $190 million
I'd agree with that.
$185-$190m for Superman and around $230m+ for X3. Alot of non comic book fans love the X Men films and I dont feel that as many people will flock to what essentially is a Superman (1978) remake.
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Wed May 03, 2006 6:09 am |
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El Maskado
Arrrrrrrrrrgggghhhhhhhhhh!
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 8:17 pm Posts: 21572
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Theres still time to decide. X-3 marketting has been non stop and its guaranted to get the second highest opening behind POTC2.  The reviews dont seem to be as bad as people were suggesting so Im doubtful about this backlash. It however doesnt look too well for SR because of its last theaterical trailer
X-3 should win with about 20-50 million ahead of SR 
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Mon May 22, 2006 1:41 pm |
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Joker's Thug #3
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 2:36 am Posts: 11130 Location: Waiting for the Dark Knight to kick my ass
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We all know that X3 will make anywhere from 210m-250m. SR is a mystery. It wont have X3's OW and it has to deal with Pirates in it's second weekend. So im going with X3, SR i'll give 210m, it could be a bit more or could be a bit less.
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Mon May 22, 2006 3:37 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm Posts: 36662
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I still stand by $235-245 million for X-Men: The Last Stand and $210-220 million for Superman Returns.
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Mon May 22, 2006 3:40 pm |
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android
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2005 7:44 am Posts: 2913 Location: Portugal
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Superman Returns
X-3: 240 million
Superman Returns: 260 million
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Mon May 22, 2006 4:00 pm |
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El Maskado
Arrrrrrrrrrgggghhhhhhhhhh!
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 8:17 pm Posts: 21572
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But its doubtful that WB will air 10 min previews of SR on the WB network since all the shows already had their season finale. Fox has the advantage of airing two 10 min previews on a 4 week span of each other on their network
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Mon May 22, 2006 4:18 pm |
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FILMO
The Original
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 10:19 am Posts: 9808 Location: Suisse
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Superman will win.
_________________Libs wrote: FILMO, I'd rather have you eat chocolate syrup off my naked body than be a moderator here.
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Mon May 22, 2006 6:26 pm |
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Joker's Thug #3
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 2:36 am Posts: 11130 Location: Waiting for the Dark Knight to kick my ass
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Usually it seems the first comic flick that comes out ends up being better and making more
X2>Hulk in 03'
BB>F4 in 05'
Wonder if the trend will continue.
_________________ "People always want to tear you down when you're on top, like Napoleon back in the Roman Empire" - Dirk Diggler
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Mon May 22, 2006 6:47 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 22182 Location: Places
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superman will win. sorry x3 fans, but itll happen.
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Tue May 23, 2006 1:00 am |
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STEVE ROGERS
The Greatest Avenger EVER
Joined: Fri Oct 29, 2004 4:02 am Posts: 18501
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excel wrote: superman will win. sorry x3 fans, but itll happen.
No.. I'm afraid your looking at the Summer's Biggest Disappointment in the form of SUPERMAN RETURNS and you can hold me to it.. X3 will do circles around this movie at the box office as SUPERMAN RETURNS will be seen as nothing more than a plastic Donner 1978 SUPERMAN movie wannabe with an actor who's about as Intimidating as Da Torri, which means, he's a PUSS..
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Tue May 23, 2006 1:22 am |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 23250 Location: Melbourne Australia
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The Dark Shape wrote: X3: The Last Stand: $240 million Superman Returns: $190 million
Thats almost exactly my prediction aswell.
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Tue May 23, 2006 1:32 am |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 23250 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Infact BKB, Superman is in danger of finishing below or around T3's final number.
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Tue May 23, 2006 1:55 am |
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STEVE ROGERS
The Greatest Avenger EVER
Joined: Fri Oct 29, 2004 4:02 am Posts: 18501
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MadGez wrote: Infact BKB, Superman is in danger of finishing below or around T3's final number.
What was T3's final domestic tally??? Around 170 Million??? If SR finishes with that, then this movie would almost have to be considered a massive disappointment, hell, even a BOMB when it supposedly cost close to 300 Million to make..
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Tue May 23, 2006 3:01 am |
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Malcolm
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T3 finished with 150mil, and i would LOOOOOOVE it if SR only managed that. I don't think it will happen, but it would be ncie.
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Tue May 23, 2006 3:10 am |
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