No matter how you try to spin it, though, Haispray and Little Miss Sunshine are totally different movies.

Yes, but they are both light-hearted, and more fun than your average Oscar hopeful. Both were a surprise, and both with a simular release date and success summer run.

Little Miss Sunshine had its not light hearted moments, though. Attempted suicide, Drug abuse and death are far from light hearted.

Damn it, I was close. Once again one of those assumptions I make that are wrong.

poor dib; lives in his ownworld where pirates was the best recived movie this summer and rataouille can get nominated for best picture

Hey, it's a hell of a lot better than the world where Pirates was the biggest disaster ever and Transformers was the success story of the decade. (BOM posters will get that one.)

Rendition maybe, Golden Compass (for the majors) no.


But that's not what most people are saying about Travolta's performance. It may be a gimmick and you may not like it, but it just doesn't change the fact that it was a noted and signficant and called-out supporting performance that *will* show up in some form at the end of the year.


I heartly disagree with that.


BUT you wouldn't have been out of your mind to be predicting Dreamgirls or Walk the Line up until the moment of the nominations.

That's all I'm asking for here, is an acknowledgement that Hairspray as a contendor is not out of the bounds and makes actually a lot of sense. It's definately not a lock, but of the movies released so far this year, it is the most likely to succeed into the Awards season and I imagine will continue to be dragged up (if anything by New Line) until the situation is clarified.

Being perceived as non-Oscar baits actually helps now. If Dreamgirls wasn't given as the frontrunner status way before it opened, I think the disappointment factor would've lower, and it would've been nominated. And Hairspray also happens to be one of the happiest films in years.

And I agree with andaroo on Travolta; regardless what one's personal opinion is on his performance, most critics love it, so he will show up in a lot of precursors.

Hmm. We should start making more specific threads. I had no idea what on earth would be up for Oscar this year until I searched this morning and O.M.G. there is ALOT of movies that have peaked my interest. Is it just me or does 2007 seem to be like the year when movies got out of control.

Here is what I have been compiling so far. Some of these, I've checked out and don't think they'll really get into the race but they have been mentioned by some of you and on some other sites as Oscar potential, so I'm just going to list the whole lot.

So far, already released we have...

Once
Away From Her
Hairspray
Waitress
Ratatouille
Sicko
Knocked Up (sp?)
Talk to Me (this really never took off. I don't see it playing any role)

And then the rest... in absolutely no order.

Charlie Wilson's War
Reservation Road
The Kite Runner
American Gangster
The Golden Age
Lust, Caution
Rendition
Sweeney Todd
The Other Boleyn Girl
Gone Baby Gone
Things We Lost in the Fire
Grace is Gone
The Kingdom
3:10 to Yuma
In the Valley of Elah
Lions for Lambs
Love in the Time of Cholera
I'm Not There
Cassandra's Dream
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Rails and Ties
There Will Be Blood
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
Eastern Promises
Silk
King of California
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford

Alot of them also I don't suppose there's a lot of Best Picture hope but acting might be strong.

Definitely. If anything, it's probably closer to Little Miss Sunshine than Dreamgirls, just with better B.O.

Having seen it, I really, really don't see The Kingdom getting any sort of awards attention.

This one stands absolutely no chance. It has a better chance at the Razzies, it is total crap. They have shown it to the press two months ago and the reactions were devastating.

Right now, I see the following movies having the biggest chances. Atonement, The Golden Age, American Gangster and the Bucket List.
Problem is the first three are all from Universal, and I doubt a single studio will get three movies nominated for best pic.

Roger Deakins needs to finally win a goddamn Oscar, though.

Well, Miramax pulled it off already, I think...

I don't trust Universal. They have had many good-looking contenders in recent years and couldn't push them through. They should just focus on one this time.

For some reason I don't see American Gangster as an Oscar contender... in any category.

The Golden Age looks great with that cast but I don't know how well it will do in the Best Picture race (is Elizabeth on the horse a complete fabrication?)

I'd say go with Atonement. If it lives up to the book, which I hear it's as faithful as can be, then it probably has the most potential for the Universal pics.

That just 'cuz it won't argument won't get you very far, that was the same tune everyone was saying last year about The Departed.

I don't think so. At least, that's not how I remembered it.

Then again... call me bias. Denzel and Crow are my least favorite actors today but I still don't see this playing to Oscar.

Eh if not The Departed it's definitely been said too many times by too many people, myself included. ;)

American Gangstaer has a good chance at getting nominated, but simply has no shot at winning BECAUSE The Departed won last year.

YES!!!!

Devin from Chud.com just saw The Assassination of Jesse James and said it's amazing and Casey Affleck is looking at major oscar attention, i'm guessing it might be a new cut of the film. I'm so happy to hear it might actually turn out to be good, loved that teaser.

IS Casey Affleck supporting in this film?

3:10 to Yuma is off to a strong start at RT, with good praises for the actors.

Is 3:10 to Yuma a co-lead or are one of them supporting?