Apparently Once has some relatively high profile fans.

I'd say that's almost enough to make it a contender for say, Screenplay ala Before Sunset. Certainly could be a bigger contender than thought.

I'd be fun to see a film like Once nominated for a big award.

Not gonna happen, though...the best I can see is a Best Screenplay nom.


OT: You know, in retrospect, I am quite surprised that Pan's Labyrinth didn't end up nominated for Best Picture. I mean, clearly the Academy loved it quite a bit and the reviews were so impossibly raving and through the roof... (it also would have been a better nominee than at least three actual BP nominees from last year anyway).

Does it even matter whether or not Hairspray wins the Globe? After Walk the Line and Dreamgirls, winning Musical/Comedy is as much a bad omen as a boost this year. I wouldn't be surprised at all for Travolta and Hairspray to clean up at the Globes and then both get slapped in the face by the academy actually. The difference is Hairspray has better reviews than the above two musical, though it's not as much of an Oscar-bait film. All 3 have/had no weight in the director category. It balances out.

But last year I was saying there's no way LMS becomes a contender with the type of film it is, and look what happened there, so who knows. Hairspray does seem sort of LMS-ish.

These are just overall thoughts right now without much backing up btw, just feelings.

I think Lions for Lambs will pull a Bobby or something close to it. The trailers are just THAT bad. As much as the academy loves their interconnecting storyline films, I'm not feeling it. Also, Redford's films have gotten progressively lesser and lesser over the years. Not sure how viable that fact is, but anyways.

Once won't be around for the show. Too small. Too niche.

If Pride and Prejudice wasn't called Pride and Prejudice, it would've been much more alive in its Oscar season. I don't think Atonement wins, but it has a shot at a nomination. Focus doesn't really have the funds to get a double nom right roo, so Reservation Road and Atonement probably can't co-exist.

I'm still trying to get a read on Charlie Wilson's War, but away from shit like say... What Planet Are You From?, Nichols doesn't miss often. Even his Angels in America mini-series work was treated as Jesus's holy bread by the Emmys/Globes/etc. Even if it disappoints, maybe a sneak-in like Munich.

American Gangster looks solid. Cast, director, box-office success likely. IMPORTANT FACT: In terms of big directors looking for an Oscar, this year is plain empty. Other than Scott, there's Redford and Nichols, who don't need more Oscar love and probably aren't going to get it, there's Fincher who would be lucky to get a nom with Zodiac, there's Croenenberg who is still too out there for them, there's Lee who's film is foreign. Finally there's the Coens, but I think the academy would be much more likely to pay their dues to Scott before them, and Burton, who is a question mark, but alive I guess. As long as AG somewhat delivers, I highly suspect Ridley Scott is the outright favorite to pick up his Best Director award this year, even if the film doesn't win. If he emerges as a shoo-in for it, AG is a big top 2 player right away.

No Country for Old Men looks very good right now. The Academy hasn't totally ignored their style in the past. 11 years since Fargo, I think it's time for another nomination.

Talk to Me has reviews on imdb, I haven't been on the internet as much lately, has that picked up buzz yet? Cheadle is on the academy hotlist. Would be a solid pick if it's good.

Finally, if the Golden Age wasn't a sequel, it'd be RIGHT up there on the list. It should still be in the race though.

I haven't really researched other movies this year, I'm mostly going by the movies listed in this thread and generally being brought up, so anyways here's what I think right now

American Gangster
The Golden Age
Atonement
No Country for Old Men
Probably something random I haven't heard of yet, but for now Hairspray I guess

Am I the only one terribly turned off by Golden Age? Or is it a satire because the trailer makes the film look silly, I mean Queen Elizabeth on horseback? It is totally out of her personality and nto to mention historical inaccurate, she was too busy flirting with her men of the court.

I thought you were gone?


For New Line, it does.


I disagree, first off, two years does not a trend make Shack. A Globe winner is a sign of general support for a film. Hairspray is also getting more amazing reviews than the two films you mentioned. New Line would love Hairspray to be in a position of being a frontrunner for the award like Dreamgirls was.

Even to this day, I can't fault people for predicting Walk The Line or Dreamgirls getting a BP nomination, because in both cases it seemed likely up until the day of the Awards.

I don't know about the Coen bros. If they go the dual director route they won't be nominated.

I guess with Hairspray the thing I would say is that the thing that actually does the most damage to it, may be it's release date.

If this thing was a major event film in say... December with these kind of reviews, with this Box Office (which is impressive for a musical), etc. there would be no reason to think it wouldn't be in the running for a BP slot.

Not locked or anything like that mind you, but definitely in the running.

It's really going to come down to how much Hairspray is remembered (which won't be hard because as far as awards go, it's only worth remembering Zodiac, Hairspray, Once, and Rat.) and how effective it's DVD campaign is.

I would love to see Fincher grab a Director nod. Even if the film is passed over for Picture, he deserves it.

I'm really beginning to warm to the idea of Hairspray being a major BP contender. New Line hasn't had a major Oscar horse since LOTR, and unlike Dreamgirls (Which was largely a disappointment to most) it had a surprise quality closer to LMS. And don't forget NBR and AFI gave spots to the far less acclaimed The Devil Wears Prada on their Top 10 lists. What's to stop Hairspray? If it were, I'd see it getting noms for:

Picture
S. Actor (Travolta)
Art Direction
Costumes
Make-Up
Song
Sound

I'm working on some predictions, and have Hairspray ranked 8th at the moment, though I'm having troubles with the actual BP line-up, so I might bump it up for the hell of it.

I think people are a little bit confused about Hairspray. It was great fun, but not a great movie. And the reviews mostly agree with me. It wasn't reviewed in the same way Walk The Line and Dreamgirls were, which were critiqued as potential Oscar noms, but rather, as a lively, somewhat juvenile summer Blockbuster. Indeed, Hairpsray received more positive reviews than the two aforementioned films, but it wouldn't surprise me to find out that most critics who did give positive reviews to Hairspray would consider Dreamgirls and Walk the Line better films.

The thing that really works against Haispray is that New Line has two other movies waiting as contenders. Rendition is flat-out bait, and if the Academy doesn't bite (which I have a feeling could very well be the case), The Golden Compass could be a surprise contender if it's well enough reviewed and received. Hairspray's strength with the Oscars is highly questionable because it doesn't have a lot of big Oscar bait. I've said it before and I'll say it again: Not a chance in hell John Travolta gets nominated. His "performance" (if you could call it that) is a gimmick, and it's not a gimmick that is terribly well pulled off. It also doesn't have the prestige factor that other musical films have had in recent years, and that's a big thing working against it. It's been a big summer hit, but then again, Dreamgirls was a big hit right around Oscar time AND had a studio that was campaigning the hell out of it, and despite everyone thinking it was a lock for the nomination and possibly a strong contender for the win, it didn't score that Picture nomination. Hairspray could score some technical nods, but Picture is highly unlikely.

I think the best thing working towards it is how Little Miss Sunshine got nominated

No matter how you try to spin it, though, Haispray and Little Miss Sunshine are totally different movies.

Yes, but they are both light-hearted, and more fun than your average Oscar hopeful. Both were a surprise, and both with a simular release date and success summer run.

Little Miss Sunshine had its not light hearted moments, though. Attempted suicide, Drug abuse and death are far from light hearted.

Damn it, I was close. Once again one of those assumptions I make that are wrong.

poor dib; lives in his ownworld where pirates was the best recived movie this summer and rataouille can get nominated for best picture

Hey, it's a hell of a lot better than the world where Pirates was the biggest disaster ever and Transformers was the success story of the decade. (BOM posters will get that one.)

Rendition maybe, Golden Compass (for the majors) no.


But that's not what most people are saying about Travolta's performance. It may be a gimmick and you may not like it, but it just doesn't change the fact that it was a noted and signficant and called-out supporting performance that *will* show up in some form at the end of the year.


I heartly disagree with that.


BUT you wouldn't have been out of your mind to be predicting Dreamgirls or Walk the Line up until the moment of the nominations.

That's all I'm asking for here, is an acknowledgement that Hairspray as a contendor is not out of the bounds and makes actually a lot of sense. It's definately not a lock, but of the movies released so far this year, it is the most likely to succeed into the Awards season and I imagine will continue to be dragged up (if anything by New Line) until the situation is clarified.

Being perceived as non-Oscar baits actually helps now. If Dreamgirls wasn't given as the frontrunner status way before it opened, I think the disappointment factor would've lower, and it would've been nominated. And Hairspray also happens to be one of the happiest films in years.

And I agree with andaroo on Travolta; regardless what one's personal opinion is on his performance, most critics love it, so he will show up in a lot of precursors.

Hmm. We should start making more specific threads. I had no idea what on earth would be up for Oscar this year until I searched this morning and O.M.G. there is ALOT of movies that have peaked my interest. Is it just me or does 2007 seem to be like the year when movies got out of control.

Here is what I have been compiling so far. Some of these, I've checked out and don't think they'll really get into the race but they have been mentioned by some of you and on some other sites as Oscar potential, so I'm just going to list the whole lot.

So far, already released we have...

Once
Away From Her
Hairspray
Waitress
Ratatouille
Sicko
Knocked Up (sp?)
Talk to Me (this really never took off. I don't see it playing any role)

And then the rest... in absolutely no order.

Charlie Wilson's War
Reservation Road
The Kite Runner
American Gangster
The Golden Age
Lust, Caution
Rendition
Sweeney Todd
The Other Boleyn Girl
Gone Baby Gone
Things We Lost in the Fire
Grace is Gone
The Kingdom
3:10 to Yuma
In the Valley of Elah
Lions for Lambs
Love in the Time of Cholera
I'm Not There
Cassandra's Dream
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Rails and Ties
There Will Be Blood
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
Eastern Promises
Silk
King of California
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford

Alot of them also I don't suppose there's a lot of Best Picture hope but acting might be strong.

Definitely. If anything, it's probably closer to Little Miss Sunshine than Dreamgirls, just with better B.O.

Having seen it, I really, really don't see The Kingdom getting any sort of awards attention.

This one stands absolutely no chance. It has a better chance at the Razzies, it is total crap. They have shown it to the press two months ago and the reactions were devastating.