The Simpsons Movie - 3306 (1071), +187 (+33), A-
No Reservations - 184 (18), +18 (+2), B-
I Know Who Killed Me - 351 (69), +18 (+5), D+
Who's Your Caddy - 224 (42), +17 (+2), D

I'm thinking $25M for The Simpsons now, with a shot at $30M. Anyone still think the film was released too late?

NO.

If it had released back when it was very popular it would have flopped just like Transformers the movie flopped back when it was very popular. How much did TTM make?? $8 million domestically? HAHAHAHAHA

No it was best to wait and wait and then release it with a bang.

Two-hour update:

The Simpsons Movie - 3558 (1202), +252 (+131), B+ (down from A-)
No Reservations - 212 (22), +28 (+4), B-
I Know Who Killed Me - 379 (90), +28 (+21), D+
Who's Your Caddy - 235 (48), +11 (+6), D

No Reservations looks much better. Should break $10m now.

And there goes The simpsons A-.

I don't share the 25-30 enthusiasm. When I learned one thing it is not to change Xia's projected ratio just because you want a movie to perform good. So with the 175 of Xia that would be a really good $22-$23 Million for The Simpsons

But that doesn't always hold true. Chuck & Larry, for example, was expected to have a ratio around 120 and ended up with under 70.

Exactly. I thought Hairspray would beat it but that wasn't the case.

I can see a $25-28 million on friday. I didn't even get to see the movie becasue it was all sold out.

But i expect Bourne 3 to eat heavily into it next weekend.

Anyway, I don't see it getting $30m either, but I think it should be good for around $25-27m. The number of sell-outs is really, really encouraging, and considering the number of theaters/screens, it wouldn't even need to sell out all these screens (let alone hours in advance) to get $20m (see Fantastic Four: ROTSS; a quiet $22m opening day if you ask me). Both have identical theater counts and Simpsons did about a million better in midnights (I think).

The Simpsons Movie - 4180 (1248), +622 (+46), B+
No Reservations - 264 (25), +52 (+3), B-
I Know Who Killed Me - 470 (101), +28 (+11), D+
Who's Your Caddy - 265 (50), +30 (+2), D

Unclogged. Right now it looks like Simpsons is getting $25-27m, No Reservations is getting $3-4m and the other two getting at least $1m a piece (still major flops, but better than I expected...).

I'll assume this is final.

The Simpsons Movie - 4299 (1288), +119 (+40), B+
No Reservations - 274 (25), +10 (+3), B-
I Know Who Killed Me - 485 (105), +15 (+4), D+
Who's Your Caddy? - 270 (55), +5 (+5), D

Here's my projections...

The Simpsons Movie: About a 200-ish ratio. So about $21-23 mil OD. It could touch a $55 mil weekend.

No Reservations: Thinking around 80-90 ratio. So about $3.5 mil OD. It could get $10 mil weekend.

I Know Who Killed Me: Ratio should be over 400. So it MIGHT have gotten a $1 mil OD... Maybe a $2.8 mil weekend.

Who's Your Caddy?: Slightly higher ratio than IKWKM. So about a $0.4-0.5 mil OD. Maybe a $1.2 mil weekend.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. The Simpsons Movie (Fox) – $28M [$28M cume]
2. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal) – $6M [$58.5M cume]
3. Hairspray (New Line) – $5.2M [$48.9M cume]
4. Harry Potter & the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros) – $5M [$229.7M cume]
5. No Reservations (Warner Bros) – $4M [$4M cume]
6. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $3.2M [$276.2M cume]
7. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) – $2.25M [$174.7M cume]
8. Live Free or Die Hard (Fox) – $1.4M [$121.1M cume]
9. I Know Who Killed Me (Sony) – $1.2M [$1.2M cume]
10. Who’s Your Caddy? (MGM/Weinstein) – $900,000 [$900,000 cume]

I sure hope that these are close to right.. pretty good numbers all around, expect for #9 and #10 ofcourse...

Not good for Potter...looks like headed for another 50%+ drop this weekend....

As much as i hate to say it but Potter is doing just fine. It's still like 15m leading GOF day-to-day and with big weekdays it can afford these drops and still top out at around near what GOF made, even $300m is still in the cards.

With 50% drops every week from here on out (which i think is worst case scenario) it would still finish with about $275m, with 45% drops $285m, which would be my guess.

The thinking that Potter is not doing as good in summer is rubbish IMHO.

Frankly I think people overreacted to the "badness" as they were afraid of another Superman or HP3 in terms of overestimating it. Kinda like DP07 when a film underperforms a wee bit (Remember Batman Begins? )

That's a ratio of 146 for Simpsons, less since the last update was two hours later than usual. Second week in a row that a comedy surprised us with a low ratio.

Simpsons had about 2600 reviews today.

huh? BB would have been a bomb if not for the WOM.

Ratios usually increase....

Good chance it won't hit 20m for the day.

yikes. That will be a huge drop and could result in probably $130 million domestic total.

Well, maybe a bit extreme, but X3 did drop nearly that much. However, even if opening day is as high a percentage as that it would still earn 150m.

Considering demographics AVP might be the best comparision. That would give it about 140m. It could be more frontloaded, so I wouldn't rule out something like 130m.

Harry Potter's ratio went down from it's OD to it's Friday... almost by 20.

Both of their OD ratios were almost identical. So if Simpsons ratio falls I wouldn't be surprised.

I'm not exactly sure on the history of Saturday Ratios... But with like a 120 ratio.. that's about $22-23 mil... a 25% drop.

FM has it at $24 mil... which would be a 115-ish Saturday ratio.

Slightly lower than HP's Friday ratio.