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notfabio
Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:30 pm
Posts: 437
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lancer1997 wrote: notfabio wrote: lancer1997 wrote: Fantasy Moguls Estimates are in....
1. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) - $16.5M [$16.5M cume]
2. Live Free or Die Hard (Fox) - $9.25M [$24.25M cume]
Seems real low given how busy the Mercado was tonight. Mercado was probably buy outs by local tech firms (maybe even Pixar) it's Yahoo I think who does the crazy several show buyouts for opening night. Maybe Google. Yahoo is right next door. Sun Micro is down the street too. Either way Can you interpret the numbers you posted on HSX for us? Xiayun is like 350% better at doing it than I am, so I'd just go ahead and wait for him. 
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| Sat Jun 30, 2007 3:43 am |
 
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Biggestgeekever
I heet the canadian!
Joined: Mon Jan 23, 2006 12:58 am
Posts: 5192
Location: The Great _______
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Can I ask where you got the FM numbers? I can't find the page for it on the site.
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| Sat Jun 30, 2007 3:44 am |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm
Posts: 63026
Location: Tonight... YOU!
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xiayun wrote: Final projections:
Live Free or Die Hard - $9.5m
Ratatouille - $18m
Sicko - $2.2m (random guess)
Evening - $1m So...
Close to a $30 mil weekend for Die Hard?
Close to $55 mil weekend for Ratatouille?
$2.7? mil weekend for Evening?
$6-7 mil weekend for Sicko? _________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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| Sat Jun 30, 2007 3:44 am |
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lancer1997
Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince
Joined: Mon Sep 04, 2006 12:41 am
Posts: 457
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 Biggestgeekever wrote: Can I ask where you got the FM numbers? I can't find the page for it on the site. EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) - $16.5M [$16.5M cume]
2. Live Free or Die Hard (Fox) - $9.25M [$24.25M cume]
3. Evan Almighty (Universal) - $5M [$50.5M cume]
4. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) - $3.7M [$33.4M cume]
5. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (Fox) - $2.8M [$108.6M cume]
6. Knocked Up (Universal) - $2.25M [$117.1M cume]
7. Ocean’s Thirteen (Warner Bros) - $1.75M [$97.75M cume]
8. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) - $1.5M [$1.6M cume]
9. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End (Buena Vista) - $1.4M [$292.1M cume]
10. Evening (Focus) - $1.1M [$1.1M cume]
11. Surf’s Up (Sony) - $900,000 [$52.3M cume]
11. Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $900,000 [$311.9M cume]
13. Nancy Drew (Warner Bros) - $700,000 [$20M cume]
14. A Mighty Heart (Paramount Vantage) - $525,000 [$5.9M cume]
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) - $48.5M [$48.5M cume]
2. Live Free or Die Hard (Fox) - $29M [$44M cume]
3. Evan Almighty (Universal) - $15.2M – down 51% [$60.7M cume]
4. 1408 (MGM/Weinstein) - $11.2M – down 46% [$40.9M cume]
5. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (Fox) - $9M – down 55% [$114.8M cume]
6. Knocked Up (Universal) - $7.3M – down 34% [$122.2M cume]
7. Ocean’s Thirteen (Warner Bros) - $6.3M – down 45% [$102.3M cume]
8. Sicko (Lionsgate/Weinstein) - $4.4M [$4.5M cume]
9. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End (Buena Vista) - $4.8M – down 33% [$295.5M cume]
10. Evening (Focus) - $3.5M [$3.5M cume]
11. Surf’s Up (Sony) - $2.9M – down 56% [$54.3M cume]
12. Shrek the Third (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $3M – down 47% [$314M cume]
13. Nancy Drew (Warner Bros) - $2M – down 55% [$21.3M cume]
14. A Mighty Heart (Paramount Vantage) - $1.75M – down 56% [$7
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| Sat Jun 30, 2007 3:46 am |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm
Posts: 25109
Location: San Mateo, CA
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notfabio wrote: Xiayun is like 350% better at doing it than I am, so I'd just go ahead and wait for him. The numbers don't look too good for Ratatouille, being only 30% ahead of Die Hard. I'd expect it to do very well in the west coast with a lot of us Pixar geeks, but unless Die Hard is doing $12m business, hard to see Ratatouille stretch the lead to over 50%.
And bad for Sicko, sub-$3000 PTA for the reported sites. Likely won't get $10K unless it really exploded here, which is possible. _________________Recent watched movies: American Hustle - B+ Inside Llewyn Davis - B Before Midnight - A 12 Years a Slave - A- The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - A- My thoughts on box office
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| Sat Jun 30, 2007 3:48 am |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm
Posts: 63026
Location: Tonight... YOU!
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Ratatouille, Sicko and Knocked Up seem way low
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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| Sat Jun 30, 2007 3:49 am |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm
Posts: 9148
Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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My Projections:
Die Hard - $10M (Wed. ratio - 25)
Ratatouille - $18M
Sicko - $2.5 (who knows?)
Evening - $1M
Wouldn't be surprised if Rat is $20M with that superb evening pace. I really can't see Sicko's ratio being higher than 700, but there is a first time for everything.
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| Sat Jun 30, 2007 7:01 am |
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PresidentPalmer
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Thu Jun 16, 2005 2:34 am
Posts: 1956
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I don't really trust FM projections anymore not after Wednesday.
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| Sat Jun 30, 2007 9:04 am |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm
Posts: 9148
Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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Rolling Thunder wrote: The only quasi-confident projection I have right now Ratatouille. I've got a rough projection of a $15-17M Friday for it but like Omni said, it's way too early for anything concrete. Hmm, is it simply luck or is this thing actually working again? 
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| Sat Jun 30, 2007 11:49 am |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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Live Free or Die Hard - 122.91
Ratatouille - 63.67
Sicko - 1198.10
Evening - 84.16
Our initial prediction of 60 for Ratatouille wasn't off, crowd reports just made us think the ratio would be lower because it sounded like $19-20m (plus these numbers are from the second-to-final update, since there was no final).
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| Sat Jun 30, 2007 1:30 pm |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm
Posts: 25109
Location: San Mateo, CA
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Yeah, Yahoo did fine on Rat, and Sicko did turn out to have one big ass ratio due to frontpage.
_________________Recent watched movies: American Hustle - B+ Inside Llewyn Davis - B Before Midnight - A 12 Years a Slave - A- The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - A- My thoughts on box office
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| Sat Jun 30, 2007 7:04 pm |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm
Posts: 25109
Location: San Mateo, CA
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Oh well, we'll need to wait until tomorrow.
_________________Recent watched movies: American Hustle - B+ Inside Llewyn Davis - B Before Midnight - A 12 Years a Slave - A- The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - A- My thoughts on box office
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| Mon Jul 02, 2007 3:23 am |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm
Posts: 9148
Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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xiayun wrote: Oh well, we'll need to wait until tomorrow. Wish they would have opened this today, but I understand why they won't.
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| Mon Jul 02, 2007 7:29 am |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm
Posts: 25109
Location: San Mateo, CA
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It just opened, after 8pm EST:
Transformers - 17 (5), A- _________________Recent watched movies: American Hustle - B+ Inside Llewyn Davis - B Before Midnight - A 12 Years a Slave - A- The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - A- My thoughts on box office
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| Mon Jul 02, 2007 9:57 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 22182
Location: Places
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i say 15,000 reviews n 500 ratio.
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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| Mon Jul 02, 2007 10:13 pm |
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dolemit3
child of the 80's
Joined: Sat Apr 01, 2006 2:10 am
Posts: 2017
Location: Amerikka
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xiayun wrote: It just opened, after 8pm EST: Transformers - 17 (5), A- So what's your bold prediction for the weekend 
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| Mon Jul 02, 2007 10:28 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm
Posts: 12193
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dolemit3 wrote: xiayun wrote: It just opened, after 8pm EST: Transformers - 17 (5), A- So what's your bold prediction for the weekend Based on those 17 grades, I'll say it does $21.3 m on Friday, and $59.7 m for the weekend. 
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| Mon Jul 02, 2007 10:38 pm |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm
Posts: 25109
Location: San Mateo, CA
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Transformers - 79 (17), 62 (+12), A-
I certainly expect it to break 10,000. As for the ratio, it can't be lower than what War of the Worlds had (151.11 on Wed), right? The next level, The Island had 255.58. Should at least match that, I assume? 
_________________Recent watched movies: American Hustle - B+ Inside Llewyn Davis - B Before Midnight - A 12 Years a Slave - A- The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - A- My thoughts on box office
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| Mon Jul 02, 2007 10:47 pm |
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Biggestgeekever
I heet the canadian!
Joined: Mon Jan 23, 2006 12:58 am
Posts: 5192
Location: The Great _______
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xiayun wrote: Transformers - 79 (17), 62 (+12), A- I certainly expect it to break 10,000. As for the ratio, it can't be lower than what War of the Worlds had (151.11 on Wed), right? The next level, The Island had 255.58. Should at least match that, I assume? That would be a $39+ Million OD+sneaks....Not gonna happen.
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| Mon Jul 02, 2007 10:50 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 22182
Location: Places
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15,000 ratings n 500 ratio.
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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| Mon Jul 02, 2007 11:10 pm |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm
Posts: 9148
Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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Sporting a tremendous online presence, I fully expect Transformers to have a ratio around 500. It would be high anyway since you can be sure Yahoo will be pimping it big time on the front page.
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| Mon Jul 02, 2007 11:50 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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Transformers - 286 (106), +207 (+89), A-
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| Mon Jul 02, 2007 11:52 pm |
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Bryan_smith
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Wed Nov 24, 2004 7:13 pm
Posts: 2120
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LoL, and clearly the first set of shows have finished and are now impacting...
_________________
spaces.msn.com/members/metropolis19
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| Mon Jul 02, 2007 11:56 pm |
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dolemit3
child of the 80's
Joined: Sat Apr 01, 2006 2:10 am
Posts: 2017
Location: Amerikka
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TFORM is on the front page: expect the count to go through the roof.
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| Tue Jul 03, 2007 12:13 am |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm
Posts: 25109
Location: San Mateo, CA
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dolemit3 wrote: TFORM is on the front page: expect the count to go through the roof. Nope, that's not considered frontpage since the link doesn't direct you to its Yahoo movie page. The past evidence showed having an ad there doesn't really affect much.
I actually don't expect anything close to 500 ratio with its 4000+ theaters and the general trend. If I have to say a number, it will be around 300. _________________Recent watched movies: American Hustle - B+ Inside Llewyn Davis - B Before Midnight - A 12 Years a Slave - A- The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - A- My thoughts on box office
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| Tue Jul 03, 2007 12:16 am |
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