Any early projections anyone? Apocalypto looks like a 5 mil Friday.

Mmm it seems like

5M Apocalypto
4-5M Holiday
3-4M Blood Diamond
2-3M Unaccompanied

I could be wrong. I kind of want Holiday to do a little better than that.

From majority of the crowd reports at HSX, it looks like Apocalypto will definately win on friday. I wonder how much Apocalypto would really do if Mel stayed sober that night

Less... or maybe more. Who knows?

Apocalypto - 659 (146), +55 (+9), B
Blood Diamond - 247 (35), +18 (+1), B+
The Holiday - 240 (27), +28 (+1), B
Unaccompanied Minors - 213 (17), +15 (+2), C (up from C-)

$5m for Apocalypto, $4m for The Holiday, $3m for BD, and $2m for Unaccompanies Minors.

Apocalypto should be able to get at least 800 reviews. I'm going to assume a slightly lower ratio of 130 for a $6M Friday. I'll put Blood Diamond at $3.25M, The Holiday at $3.5M, and Unaccompanied Minors at $2M.

In the effort to continue my written review archiving, if someone is around to post the final update, that would be great. Us East Coasters need some sleep!

That low? That probably wouldn't even be 11 million opening weekend, notfabio guesstimated 14.

And I projected $13M this afternoon. Barring a big update, I'm figuring about 320 reviews and a low 90's ratio. Probably no more than $4M, though. It just hasn't been a strong performer today.

With what, the Yahoo reviews? Meh

I have a hard time seeing this do less than Family Stone with more theaters

Low ratio in the 70-80 range is possible for a romantic comedy.

Who in the cast is an automatic draw? Plus, last weekend's sneaks were decent but far from spectacular.

Definitely. Failure to Launch is a perfect example. I based my guess on the theater reports, which include the evening business at mine.

Nikki Fink (I think that's her name) is pegging Apocalypto at $6M, Holiday at $4.5M, and Blood Diamond in 3rd with no particular estimate.

Holiday looks like it's going to be most comparable to Two Weeks Notice, which opened to $14M in 2002. Whether it has the legs to get it over $90M like that movie remains to be seen, obviously.

Finke

Apocalypto - 699 (172), +40 (+26), B
Blood Diamond - 268 (50), +21 (+15), B+
The Holiday - 265 (34), +25 (+7), B
Unaccompanied Minors - 228 (18), +15 (+1), C

If The Holiday only does around 90-100 million that's pretty bad considering Joe Leydon said it cost 120 million(!!). If Hollywood wants to make money they really need to start saying no to star salaries.

Apocalypto - 820 (197), +121 (+25), B
Blood Diamond - 302 (52), +34 (+2), B+
The Holiday - 312 (38), +47 (+4), B
Unaccompanied Minors - 241 (20), +13 (+2), C

Pretty good late-hour action for The Holiday. $6m is very likely for Apocalypto.

Damn, go Mel Gibson go.

By the way, as for The Holiday looking more like a 80-90 mil hit than a christmas smash like Something's Gotta Give or What Women Want... Honestly I think it's all in the actors. Jack Nicholson and Diane Keaton were enough to create a big time nostalgia draw for SGG, and for What Woman Want, Mel Gibson was in my mind one of the biggest actor draws. Jude Law, Cameron Diaz, Kate Winslet, and Jack Black don't open a film as well.

If Apocalyto makes 6m opening day I think it'll get between a 2.85-3.05 IM, thats 17.1-18.3m for the weekend. if thats true I can see it getting a 4.5-6 multiplier. So it could have a shot at 100m

So what are the final numbers for all new movies?

Apocalypto's ratio was indeed high - approximately 165. Blood Diamond around 113. The Holiday around 71, and Minors around 155. I'll post the traditional and written-only ratios on Tuesday. Great job again, xiayun & crew.

Ratios with actuals (written-only ratio in parentheses):

Apocalypto - 167.18 (40.17)
Blood Diamond - 114.08 (19.64)
The Holiday - 70.24 (8.56)
Unaccompanied Minors - 154.76 (12.85)

UM's traditional ratio was higher than expected, even with a poor grade. The Holiday registered a very low written-only ratio. Everything else fell within their expected ranges.

Yahoo Movies got a pretty nice facelift. We'll see if it generates a spike in the number of reviews tomorrow. I hope the clogging issue has been fixed, but I'm assuming this is purely a cosmetic change.

http://movies.yahoo.com/

As of 1:45 PST:

Charlotte's Web: 9, B+
Eragon: 1, B-
The Pursuit of Happyness: 0, -

For ratios, I have 60 for Charlotte's Web, 80 for Eragon (fanbase could push it higher), and 100 for Pursuit of Happyness. All are subject to change throughout the day.