Something interesting data about metacritic user (not critic) votes:

Volver - 9.6
The Departed - 8.2
Little Miss Sunshine - 8.1
United 93 - 7.7
The Devil Wears Prada - 7.6
Little Children - 7.3
Flags of Our Fathers - 7.1
A Prairie Home Companion - 6.0
The Queen - 5.9
Babel - 5.6

Brokeback Mountain - 8.2
Capote - 8.0
Good Night and Good Luck - 7.2
Munich - 7.0
Crash - 6.8

Ray - 8.7
Finding Neverland - 8.4
Million Dollar Baby - 7.8
The Aviator - 6.8
Sideways - 6.3

Return of the King - 8.5
Seabiscuit - 7.2
Lost in Translation - 6.3
Master and Commander - 5.4
Mystic River - 5.2

The Two Towers - 8.9
The Pianist - 8.6
The Hours - 8.5
Chicago - 7.9
Gangs of New York - 6.5

Moulin Rouge - 9.0
Fellowship of the Ring - 8.4
In the Bedroom - 7.2
A Beautiful Mind - 6.4
Gosford Park - 5.9

Volver is looking absolutely powerful. It has a higher score than City of God (8.6), Talk to Her (8.1) and Crouching Tiger (7.1). It might even be the highest scores ever for a film with over 100 votes. If the general voting body can give The Motorcycle Diaries enough support for it to win Best Song, this certainly seems likely to get a Best Picture nomination now.

The Queen has a really big divide between critics andnon-critics, which could pose a problem if Volver, Letters from Iwo Jima, Dreamgirls, and Little Miss Sunshine all become really strong. Only Mystic River and Master and Commander have lower scores than it, and those are very male-targeting films while this one has a female protagonist. Though it does have the same score as Gosford Park so it could still follow the same exact path to the Oscars, but there is no Robert Altman respect factor to help it gather votes.

btw, for animated films:

Ice Age: The Meltdown - 8.7
Over the Hedge - 8.2
Monster House - 7.6
Cars - 6.8
Flushed Away - 6.8
Open Season - 6.2
Happy Feet - 5.7

Howl's Moving Castle - 8.6
Wallace and Gromit - 8.2
Corpse Bride - 6.9

The Incredibles - 8.7
Shrek 2 - 7.8
Shark Tale -5.5

Finding Nemo - 8.7
what else was there?

Spirited Away - 9.4
Lilo & Stitch - 9.0
Ice Age - 7.7

Shrek - 8.6
Monsters, Inc. - 8.6

Every year the Oscar winner had at least a 8.2. So there's still a chance that neither Cars or Happy Feet will end up winning.

BTW, The Queen (and Notes on a Scandal and possibly Babel) isn't eligible for AFI because it's mainly foreign production:

"Motion picture with significant creative and/or production elements from the United States. The motion picture need not be presented in the English language if it is incontrovertibly American."

So, what's the schedule for the next couple guilds announced?

Sunday: LA, Boston, AFI
Monday: NY
Tuesday: BFCA
Thursday: GG

Pursuit of Happyness is getting killed early on.

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/pursuit_of_happyness/

29%. A nomination probably isn't happening for Smith. I don't really get people jumping on this as a contender, it looked like pure cheese from the beginning, with no director weight.

All I see coming from Happyness is a Smith nom, which is still possibly with the weakness of the Actor category. That's about it. I don't think it was ever really a contender.

Smith did get nominated for Ali even though the movie didnt get great reviews and smith's acting was not that great, so maybe he still has a shot.

Nathaniel has his latest prediction update. His Eastwood comments will probably cause some stirs, but I feel they have merits, and I'm also someone who liked Mystic River and loved M$B. I don't feel as strongly or as cynical as Nathaniel does since I think it's more of how things fell into place each year natually instead of someone manipulating the outcome (there are definitely well-sounded reasons for moving Letters up, e.g.), but it's just hard to continue seeing the same people get snubbed.

Well, so much for my TPOH prediction. Makes it all the easier to justify LMS there. And Smith should still get in, considering how weak the catagory is and that they nominated Sean Penn for I Am Sam despite bad reviews.

I'll update my predictions after the Globes announce. Too much more chaotic other stuff happening between now and then.

And THE CONTENDERS HAVE BEEN FULLY UPDATED. Behold!

I'm sad to say it, but I think Letters from Iwo Jima might be winning best picture. Neither Departed or Dreamgirls has been as unstoppable as previously thought.

Or United 93...

LFIJ is beginning to look like a Critics Awards sweeper, and we know how that helped Brokeback and Sideways!

I think it's going to peak too early just like those two, leading to a win for The Departed (Yeah, I'm going there).

And U93 should now be at least good for a nom in Director. LAFCA is extremely good at predicting Director, and the last time a Director won the LAFCA and wasn't nommed was Spike Lee for Do the Right Thing.

This was put together by someone over at Oscarwatch, a nice summary of all the major wins so far.

BEST PICTURE
Letters From Iwo Jima - LAFCA, NBR
The Queen - NYFCO
The Departed - BSFC

BEST DIRECTOR
Martin Scorsese - NBR, BSFC
Stephen Frears - NYFCO
Paul Greengrass - LAFCA

BEST ACTOR
Forest Whitaker - NBR, BFCA, LAFCA, NYFCO
Sacha Baron Cohen - LAFCA

BEST ACTRESS
Helen Mirren - NBR, BFCA, LAFCA, NYFCO

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Michael Sheen - LAFCA, NYFCO
Mark Wahlberg - BSFC
Djimon Hounsou - NBR

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Catherine O'Hara - NBR, NYFCO
Shareeka Epps - BSFC
Luminita Gheorghiu, "The Death of Mr. Lazarescu - LAFCA
Jennifer Hudson - NYFCO

SCREENPLAY
The Queen - LAFCA, NYFCO
The Departed - BSFC
The Painted Veil - NBR
Stranger Than Fiction - NBR

FOREIGN FILM
Pan's Labyrinth - BSFC, NYFCO
Volver - NBR
The Lives of Others - LAFCA

Peace,
Mike.

My major predictions at this point:

Best Picture
The Departed
The Queen
Letters from Iwo Jima
United 93
Little Miss Sunshine

Best Director
Martin Scorsese - The Departed
Paul Greengrass - United 93
Clint Eastwood- Letters from Iwo Jima
Stephen Frears - The Queen
Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu - Babel

Best Actor
Peter O'Toole - Venus
Forest Whitaker - Last King of Scotland
Ryan Gosling - Half Nelson
Sascha Baron Cohen - Borat
Will Smith - The Pursuit of Happyness

Best Actress
Helen Mirren - The Queen
Penelope Cruz - Volver
Meryl Streep - The Devil Wears Prada
Judi Dench - Notes on a Scandal
Naomi Watts - The Painted Veil

Best Supporting Actor
Eddie Murphy - Dreamgirls
Jack Nicholson - The Departed
Michael Sheen - The Queen
Mark Wahlberg - The Departed
Brad Pitt - Babel

Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Hudson - Dreamgirls
Abigail Breslin - Little Miss Sunshine
Catherine O'Hara - For Your Consideration
Vera Farmiga - The Departed
Adriana Barraza - Babel

That Dreamgirls snub is just wishful thinking of yours. It's being released late enough that it'll have enough steam to at least get nominated, just like Munich and Gangs of New York.

And damn you for stealing my Borat prediction!

Except for Hudson, Dreamgirls hasn't been showing up anywhere thus far, even Murphy hasn't got a single mention... that's why I have it out. The lack of any director weight will also hurt it, a la Walk the Line.

It's still early, but at this point I think U93 and LMS are coming on strong enough to temporarily put it out of the top 5, they're ahead. In particular I think LMS and Dreamgirls are battling it out for that last spot, both won't get Director nominations IMO if nominated and both are Musical/Comedy, it might be down to whoever wins the globe that indicates the nom.

Dreamgirls is not a critics awards film, like Munich or The Aviator. The only big-budget contender to make showings at critics awards recently was ROTK. If it scores with BFCA, the Globes and Guilds, it's safe.

And Dreamgirls status as a musical that doesn't suck pretty much makes it a lock for the Globe. They'll take any chance they get to not award a comedy.

1. The Departed - LOCKED
2. Letters From Iwo Jima - LOCKED
3. Dreamgirls - pretty much a lock
4. The Queen - unsure of how much of a LOCK, but I can't see it not being nominated
5. United 93 - strongest for this spot

6. Little Miss Sunshine - too inconsequential, but you got a better one for this slot?
7. Volver - surprise nominee?
8. Babel - highly doubt it, but it seems to have some support from early indicators
9. The Devil Wears Prada - getting a lot of backers
10. Children Of Men - needs a really late boost and great reviews, but I can't think of another film to put here

The Good Shepherd is off to a 20% start.

A good start, too!

Apparently it's 3 hours (!) and boring.

First Top 10 lists of the year:



I find the Good Shepherd love odd, considering RT. Maybe it's just going to be a major love-or-hate flick.

Happy Feet in both Top 10s, the only film besides The Departed and United 93 to do that?

What was that site that compiled all the critics' top ten lists into a numerical ranking for each film? The one where all Oscar nominees always made the top twenty?

http://criticstop10.net/

thanks! btw, the url seems to be a lot shorter than I remembered it.