Three-hour:

A Good Year - 58 (17), +20 (+4), C+
Harsh Times - 57 (16), +16 (+3), B-
The Return - 86 (21), +39 (+6), B
Stranger Than Fiction - 145 (98), +64 (+36), B
Babel - 415 (85), 44 (20) Friday, +23 (+5), B
Borat - 9127 (1614), 401 (108) Friday, +148 (+36), B+

A Good Year - 98 (19), +40 (+2), C+
Harsh Times - 88 (17), +29 (+1), B-
The Return - 141 (27), +55 (+6), B
Stranger Than Fiction - 269 (111), +124 (+13), B
Babel - 449 (89), 78 (24) Friday, +34 (+4), B
Borat - 9368 (1628), 642 (122) Friday, +241 (+14), B+

Finally. The written percentages look fine now.

A Good Year - 98 (19), +40 (+2), C+
Harsh Times - 88 (17), +31 (+1), B-
The Return - 141 (28), +55 (+7), B-
Stranger Than Fiction - 269 (113), +124 (+15), B
Babel - 449 (89), 78 (20) Friday, +34 (+4), B
Borat - 9368 (1628), 642 (108) Friday, +241 (+14), B+

any ideas for projections?

Awful grade for A Good Year, although I can't say it doesn't deserve it. I saw it tonight and it was so incredibly dull.

With two updates to go, I'd say we're looking at the following:

A Good Year: $1.2M -$1.5M (very poor)
Harsh Times: $0.50M - $0.75M (not a breakout)
The Return: $2.3M - $2.8M (better than expected, IMO)
Stranger Than Fiction: $3.75M - $4.7M (ok, but not a typical Ferrell opening)
Babel: $1.75M - $2.0M (most unsure about this, though - theater reports suggest better)
Borat: $10M-$12M (one more big update is possible, though)

I was off quite a bit last week, so take all these with a grain of salt.

I think STF will be higher then that honestly. It seems to be going for the chick-flick angle and there really isn't that much else out there for them right now other then perhaps AGY. I think $6 million opening day is in store, but I'm usually wrong.

That projection assumed 375 reviews and a ratio of 80-100. I could possibly see 425 reviews and a $5M-5.5M Friday, but not more than that, honestly.

...Too...many...numbers...as I said I'm usually wrong.

Hasn't changed much for the last three hours:

A Good Year - 104 (22), +6 (+3), C+
Harsh Times - 92 (20), +4 (+3), B-
The Return - 149 (33), +8 (+5), C+
Stranger Than Fiction - 336 (127), +67 (+14), B
Babel - 459 (93), 88 (24) Friday, +10 (+4), B
Borat - 9422 (1652), 696 (132) Friday, +54 (+24), B+

Hehe. Crowe's sappy, safe film completely flopped. I couldn't be happier as it couldn't happen to a "nicer" guy. It's pretty obvious he doesn't have a career in rom-coms waiting for him. I did think he had a bigger female audience than this though so it's kind of surprising.

Final:

A Good Year - 131 (23), +27 (+1), C+
Harsh Times - 117 (21), +25 (+1), B-
The Return - 186 (35), +37 (+2), C+
Stranger Than Fiction - 445 (128), +109 (+1), B
Babel - 499 (96), 128 (27) Friday, +40 (+3), B
Borat - 9653 (1657), 925 (137) Friday, +229 (+5), B+

Glad it's unclogged at the last hour.

Final projections:

A Good Year - had a similar written percentage as The Return had as well as the grade, so the ratios could be close as well; a ratio of 80 would give it $1.6m.

Harsh Times - higher written percentage, so I'd go with a ratio of 120 for $1.0m.

The Return - more back-loaded than A Good Year was; a ratio of 75 gives it $2.5m.

Stranger Than Fiction - very back-loaded as well, and that should offset the high written percentage; a ratio of 85 translates to $5.2m.

Babel - a ratio of 55 puts it at $2.3m.

Borat - should have a ratio around 75 for $12.3m.

I think they are very reasonable projections. Stranger than Fiction could possibly go a bit higher but thats not bad.

I'm thinking right around 11m for Borat. But it'll have a very good multiplier for a 32-33.5.

Very good for THE RETURN considering the low tracking and low theater count.

Well, you know me, I see like every chick flick that comes out, and I thought this looked like tripe.

What about it didn't appeal to you?

bump lets get some ratios this should be a big day

I'll give it a shot...

Casino Royale - 95 similar to Mission Impossible 3
Happy Feet - 70 fairly typical non-sequel animated film ratio
Let's Go To Prison - no idea really, 150ish?

I'll go with 50 for Happy Feet, 75 for Casino Royale (MI3 had anti-Cruise factor and before clogging), probably 150 as well for Let's Go To Prison (r-rated comedy, small theater count).

I assume that there can't be any sort of Yahoo grade for the After Dark thing since they're different movies?

Casino Royale - 8 (12), B
Happy Feet - 2 (1), A-
Let's Go To Prison - 2 (1), C

28 Written reviews

Casino Royale - 18 (35), +10, B+
Happy Feet - 5 (4), +3, B
Let's Go To Prison - 2 (2), +0, C

I'm in general consenus with xiayun on the ratios. I could see 100 for CR due to the history of the franchise and expected heavy reviews. I have Happy Feet at 55 - higher than Open Season & Barnyard, but slightly lower than Cars & Over The Hedge.