So... Are people STILL confident that this will be a hit?

I'm starting to think that it will fall below 50 million.

So... Are people STILL confident that this will be a hit?

I'm starting to think that it will fall below 50 million.

what three franchises??

Don't tell me COTN was great. It was the worst fantasy movie of all time. It was nohting but christian crap stuff. I mean you guys belive Alsan was Jesus. HAHAHAHAHAHA I think christians are very pathetic who supported that movie.

Personally I didn't like Narnia, but it was a very solid critical success and a massive B.O hit.

It's starting to seem that the studio is going to flush Eragon right down the toilet. They obviously don't have any kind of faith in the movie.

I haven't heard anyone speaking about this film whatsoever outside of the Internet. I think Rocky should move up to this film's release date, so it isn't opening the same day as We Are Marshall. I think we could see the potential to fail to reach $60 m on this one...

Really, there is nothing for the target demo to watch for several weeks until this comes out.
At least nothing that will be really strong still by 12/15.
Night At The Museum will hurt it, but I'm still confident the fanbase, fantasy style, and
holidays will carry this past 100M at the minimum. But I'm a fan of the books.

My New Prediction

Eragon

Opening Weekend
Opening Day:10.9m
Saturday:12.54m +15%
Sunday:8.56m -31.4%
WEEKEND TOTAL:32.0m
Day 4:3.0m -65%
Day 5:3.06m +2%
Day 6:3.2m +5%
Day 7:3.69m +15%
5 DAY TOTAL:38.06m
6 DAY TOTAL:41.26m
Opening Week:44.95m
Second Weekend
Friday:5.16m +40%
Saturday:7.49m +45%
Sunday:3.74m -50%
SECOND WEEKEND TOTAL:16.4m -48.5%
Day 11:5.49m +47% 4 Day Christmas 21.89m -31.4%
Day 12:8.78m +60%
Day 13:6.77m -23%
Day 14:7.2m +7%
Second Week:44.64m -0.7%
14 DAY TOTAL:89.59m

TOTAL:175m
INTERNATIONAL:325m
WW :500m

5.47 multiplier

Bombs away, how is it going to do any business when nobody has even seen a trailer?

I have to agree with Moviedude's claims, props to him. Under 60 mil.

LOL... Man, I came across a doozy of a forum thread over at the NaNoWriMo board.... It was all about anti-Paolini. Incredibly interesting stuff. Made me feel justified in deciding never to read the book(s) after reading the prologue posted on the official website.

I'm going to predict.... well.... DnD only made some $15mil total domestically, with a $45mil budget. Eragon, at a $90mil budget (according to BOM), doesn't really look all that much more impressive. I'll aim for $55mil to $60mil because it's the only real fantasy movie out during this holiday season, but I know I'm being a bit lenient.

Joy

11 opening weekend/ final number of 30

its about two months away/less. Fox still has time to market this.... in my theater by my house there was a huge eragon poster, and it was pretty good.

i would say... 37/159 with some good marketing
25/96 with bad/little marketing

I'm really doubting that this is gonna have a big marketing campaign.

They were witholding the trailer as long as they could, when it finally came out it gathered an indifferent reaction, and it hasn't been playing anywhere.

Obviously the studio doesn't have much faith in this. If they don't have faith, they are not gonna waste money to big marketing.

A gazillion times better trailer than the debut. Granted they had to slash every trace of dialogue from it to do it. I would be surprised if they don't at least get to 20 million OW with smart placement of this version and solid tv spots.

http://www.apple.com/trailers/fox/eragon/traileri/

..and I have been rough on it...

Wow is that trailer SWEET!

tv spot on baseball game was OK

see below

see below

I predict $40-42 million opening weekend with a domestic total of $ 120-126 million domestically and overseas $175+ million.

WORLWIDE: $295-310 million


all that if the marketing picks up and tv spots are all over the major tv channels.

That's a lot more impressive. I think it has at least 25m opening weekend and 100m total. I'm thinking about 34m OW with 40m being possible.

Meh, it'll do better, but I'm not sold. I think it could still definitely get lost in the shuffle of films this winter, but for right now I'll be optimistic that Fox markets this one reallly well and manages to get 23/90.

Well, they have done their best now with what they had.

They did the right thing by cutting away all the dialogue - which was awful. The did the right thing by cutting all the acting, which seemed pretty bad despite some really talented actors. They cut all the drama scenes out, because they seemed stupid and cheesy. They minimized the amount of live action footage, which always looked either cheesy or just generic.

And instead of all of that they added admittedly good looking CGI moneyshots, done by talented and skilled people in the post production, completely removed from the actual film itself.

It doesn't give me faith in the quality of the film. And in terms of story this just says "Dragons! There is a dragon! What story? This doesn't have one!". Which probably is not enough to make big amounts of people interested (How about giving at least proper text lines in order to explain the basic concept? should be easy enough).

Anyway, now I do believe that it might make over 50 million after all, perhaps even closer to 80-100 million.

35/140

I don't know that any amount of good trailers is going to help this movie. Word of mouth will most assuredly be horrid. It seems there is a lot more hatred for these books that I ever thought. I had thought I was the only one who couldn't get past the prologue, but it seems there are entire groups of people out there who can't stand Paolini's writing.

Believe me, only real fans of the book are going to see this opening weekend. There'll be the haters going at least once, as I know of several who plan to go just to heckle. Regular moviegoers who've not read the books and/or heard of the books will see it, but the word of mouth will be bad.

No, I've not read the book, but I've read enough essays about and excerpts from the books to know that people will be calling "LOTR & Star Wars rip-off!" left and right. It'll get panned like crazy.

Joy

$15M / $98M

The trailer with the all the dragons -- reminded me of Reign of Fire. Just too heavy. The trailer with the dialogue -- hoo boy. This is NOT LotR, not by a long shot. this is much more like Neverending Story, except with high-school acting. Nevertheless, Fox should put this in theatres while they can, during a somewhat empty December. No amount of further delay will save it.

Well if they can't compete with story and acting, money shots are obviously the easiest way to get tickets sold, at least in opening weekend.

The shots look pretty cool, and i'll know i'll be there regardless as i'm a fantasy fan; though this movie looks pretty shallow to me. The actors are no-names and dialogue in previous trailers are pretty bad. The dragon rider looks pretty ugly if you ask me, can't they go for someone more photogenic....

It's not as light as Harry Potter or Narnia and nowhere near as epic as LOTR...it doesn't really have as wide of appeal. It might go the Lemony Snickets route, though i'm thinking Lemony had more going for it than this, i.e. Jim Carrey and the kids.

30/105m thanks to a good release date...