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 The Official Eragon Prediction/Tracking Thread 
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Joined: Fri Jun 24, 2005 11:11 pm
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ashwani wrote:

how big do u think is the fanbase of eragon WORLDWIDE??


It's hard to say. Somewhere between Lemony Snicket and Harry Potter, much closer to the
former. All I really know is that the sequel to Eragon, Eldest, topped the bestseller list in the
U.S. and sold well over 1M copies. How much more than that I have no idea. Internationally,
I would imagine the film would do 1.5-2X the box office it does domestically. As is the nature
of the genre.


Fri Sep 15, 2006 12:03 am
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In response to BJ,

If it's smaller than LS, it's only because LS has been around longer. I think Eragon is much
more mainstream, which should offset the absence of a huge star like Carrey.


Fri Sep 15, 2006 12:05 am
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Killing With Kindness
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SolC9 wrote:
In response to BJ,

If it's smaller than LS, it's only because LS has been around longer. I think Eragon is much
more mainstream, which should offset the absence of a huge star like Carrey.

agreed, though it has less fans currently I do agree about it having much more room to expand than LS ever did.

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Fri Sep 15, 2006 12:20 am
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Wall-E

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hey guys i have to admit fans on shrutugal are very very happy with the trailer and people on IMDB etc. are very excited in watching the movie and have reacted very well to the trailer.

only some pathetic people on worldofkj are against it.


Fri Sep 15, 2006 1:03 am
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The French Dutch Boy
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Dude, this movie looks REALLY bad. And I was looking forward to it, because I have a fascination with dragons.

One thing that strikes me is that the villain looks very weak. He doesn't have the strong, influential voice that makes me convinced he's powerful, influential or going to make me interested in his "evil deeds".

PEACE, Mike.


Fri Sep 15, 2006 1:15 am
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ashwani wrote:
hey guys i have to admit fans on shrutugal are very very happy with the trailer and people on IMDB etc. are very excited in watching the movie and have reacted very well to the trailer.

only some pathetic people on worldofkj are against it.


Its no surprise, the KJers have been against this film since the begining.

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Fri Sep 15, 2006 2:11 am
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Haha this one's fanbase isn't close to as big as Fireflys, and look how well that did. I can't possibly see this hitting 80 million, let alone 100+. I'm gonna stick with my bold statement that unless this has a huge amount of adverteising, it won't pass 70 million. They could push it as hard as they did King Kong and I still doubt it'd hit 100 million, it looks AWFUL.


Fri Sep 15, 2006 2:17 am
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This thing isn't hitting 100 million. It's going to be damn lucky to hit 50. Remember how Blade came out and bombed? Remember how Star Trek: Nemesis came out and bombed? Remember Aeon Flux?

Every December gets a high-profile genre movie that underperforms and tanks. Eragon looks like the same movie we've seen before, and the grosses will reflect this.


Fri Sep 15, 2006 3:04 pm
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Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince

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Post AICN is apparently in the ANTI-ERAGON AXIS OF EVIL too. ;P
BJ wrote:
ashwani wrote:
hey guys i have to admit fans on shrutugal are very very happy with the trailer and people on IMDB etc. are very excited in watching the movie and have reacted very well to the trailer.

only some pathetic people on worldofkj are against it.


Its no surprise, the KJers have been against this film since the begining.


AICN TB's are ripping it apart.

I think the money shots are much better than the Comic Con one, but the DUNGEONS & DRAGONS indicative
ones are much worse.

Also, have you actually read through the comments on past Shurtugal news postings? Yikes. Those are some
easily excitable very young fans. Literally a dozen

OHMIGODIAMGONNABLOWUPFOXANDKILLEVERYONEIFTHEYDONTRELEASETHETRAILERTHISTIME! Kind of messages.


Fri Sep 15, 2006 4:47 pm
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Cream of the Crop
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The problem with this movie is its appeal is a lot more fans-only than, say, Harry Potter or even Lemony Snicket. I have friends and family who enjoy watching Harry Potter without ever having read the books. They've even seen and liked Lemony Snicket and have not read the books (I myself have not had the chance to read LS).

But this movie just looks far to generic and "been there, done that" to appeal to more than just the fans.

Joy


Fri Sep 15, 2006 5:08 pm
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I had this pegged at $200m+ once - but now I doubt it will get much above $100m.

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Fri Sep 15, 2006 9:01 pm
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I think it looks good although not great. Of course considering Jermey Irons track record of late.


Fri Sep 15, 2006 10:32 pm
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Looks VERY much like Dragonheart, with a little bit of Dungeons & Dragons thrown in. Doesn't exactly make it a movie with hit potential. It tries to look serious and epic, but looks cheesy, derivative and rather low budget instead. Especially when compared to the three big fantasy franchises of recent years.

Mainstream doesn't embrace cheese, unless it's a comedy.

Will probably travel somewhere between 50-80 million. If the season would be more crowded, it would be DOA. But it has good room to perform, which helps it.


Sat Sep 16, 2006 2:41 am
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34/130


Sat Sep 16, 2006 9:35 am
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ef star star kay
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It looked really bad, which will hurt its opening week..

But from what I've heard (so far), it'll be a good movie.. and that will help its leg..

34/165


Sat Sep 16, 2006 2:31 pm
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Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince

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Post Heard from who?
JURiNG wrote:
It looked really bad, which will hurt its opening week..
But from what I've heard (so far), it'll be a good movie.. and that will help its leg..
34/165



The movie hasn't been screened for anyone yet outside of some cast and key crew and even they just saw
a rough assembalage. The one two punch of NIGHT AT THE MUSEUM and WEB is the problem I see with any kind of freakishly good legs unless those films are unwatchable messes.

It should manage better business than STAR TREK NEMESIS and DRAGONHEART though. I'm presently thinking a final domestic $60-90.


Sat Sep 16, 2006 3:08 pm
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Adjust Dragonheart for inflation, and it made about 76M domestically. Add in the fanbase
from being based on a popular book, and consider that this will benefit some from people
craving fantasy in December. There is NO WAY this will make less than 100M.


Sat Sep 16, 2006 5:42 pm
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Indiana Jones IV

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SolC9 wrote:
Adjust Dragonheart for inflation, and it made about 76M domestically. Add in the fanbase
from being based on a popular book, and consider that this will benefit some from people
craving fantasy in December. There is NO WAY this will make less than 100M.


Dragonheart had novelty value and offered something new - It was the first CGI dragon movie ever made. This on the other hand is coming out on the footsteps of several similar, much higher profile movies. Maybe it can benefit from them, but on the other hand it looks like a cheaper and tackier rip-off of recent big hit movies.

This could well be the "Timeline" of this year.


Sat Sep 16, 2006 6:10 pm
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Eragon is almost certain tobe dead on arrival, with that shitty trailer no one outside of its fanbase is gonna want to see this.

30/105 if it's lucky and gets some decent WOM.


Sun Sep 17, 2006 8:23 pm
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Wall-E

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Too much negativity in this thread!!!!

this website is easily becoming my worst movie forum site.


Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:00 pm
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35/120


Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:03 pm
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Yeah, this looks like supreme suck.

I think $80m is the ceiling for this one, but I wouldn't be surprised if it failed to top $50m.


Sun Sep 17, 2006 10:54 pm
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Extraordinary

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New prediction:

$24 m/$95 m

December legs are generous.


Sun Sep 17, 2006 11:04 pm
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ashwani wrote:
Too much negativity in this thread!!!!

this website is easily becoming my worst movie forum site.


Because we're not blind Fox fanboys?


Sun Sep 17, 2006 11:33 pm
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Speaking of Fox, those fight scenes in the forest totally remind of another Twentieth Century gem - Elektra.


Mon Sep 18, 2006 1:35 am
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