Nice call.

Nice job, xiayun. Saw III's ratio will be about 75.

Does anyone have a theory why Wallace & Grommit had a 170 ratio last year? I don't expect Flushed Away to be anywhere near that, but I was curious.

Could be front page; need to check.

I think what I'm going to do is instead of linking the movie to its Yahoo page in the table, linking it to where the tracking started in the thread, so one can click and immediately follow its hourly update back on that day (also because DP already has the Yahoo link in the first post).

That's an excellent idea. It will probably take you a lot of time, though. I've tried to manually search for films we tracked last year, and it takes forever.

Fanbase?

Fanbase? (sort of...)

Ratios with actuals:

Saw III - 72.62
Catch a Fire - 174.92
Running With Scissors - 56.76

Saw III posts the second lowest horror ratio of all-time. Running With Scissors was so low because the film had already opened for reviews earlier in the week.

Even with ratios getting lower, I can't see Borat having one below 200 with its low theater count, tons of advance screenings, and all the buzz. This is going to push the upper limit of what ratio we can have under the new front page and the presence of clogging.

50-60 for Flushed Away and 70 for SC3.

Borat at about 200. 45-55 for FA and 50-60 for SC3.

They can, and will do all of that, but that can only help so much.
Borat is going to be huge in the big cities, but the smaller markets where it was released aren't going to do nearly as well.
Had Borat been released in just the top 3 markets it could have easily pulled in a PTA of $40,000+, but it wasn't, and every theater in small town America where it did open, is going to pull its PTA down a little.

If demand isn't there, it doesn't matter how many screens it's on.

It's not the theater's call. The film's distributor has only made x amount available for this weekend.

At the beginning:

Borat - 0
Flushed Away - 0
The Santa Clause 3 - 20, A-

Some posts had to be deleted due to board bug. We've tried to save as much as we could.

DP07

Borat - 4, +4, A
Flushed Away - 0
The Santa Clause 3 - 20, +0, A-

7 written for Borat.

Zingaling

Borat - 13, +9, B+ (down from A)
Flushed Away - 1, +1, A+
The Santa Clause 3 - 20, 2 Friday, +2, A-

Rolling Thunder

For ratios, I'm going with 70 for The Santa Clause 3, 55 for Flushed Away, and 165 for Borat. I do agree that the latter could reach 200, but I won't go quite that high just yet.

Rolling Thunder

Borat - 15, +2, B
Flushed Away - 1, +0, A+
The Santa Clause 3 - 23, 5 Friday, +3, A-

Rolling Thunder

Borat - 18, +3, B+
Flushed Away - 2, +1, A
The Santa Clause 3 - 25, 7 Friday, +2, A-

26 written for Borat so far. Incredible.


Mood-Swing Jon

2-hour update:

Borat - 20, +2, B+ (55 written)
Flushed Away - 3, +1, A- (Down from A-) (5 written)
The Santa Clause 3 - 25 (Is there a reason to sperate 18 reviews?), +0, A- (2 written)

Jesus is Borat clogged.

Rolling Thunder

Borat's ratio might be closer to 200-250 at this rate.

Rolling Thunder

2-Hour Update

Borat - 14, -4, B+
Flushed Away - 3, +1, A-
The Santa Clause 3 - 25, +0, A-

Yes, Borat somehow went backwards. But with 60+ written reviews at this hour, it probably has 300-400 actual reviews. Flushed away is likely around 25-30. It's hard to tell on Santa Clause, but probably 40 or 50 would be my guess. There's probably no need to separate the pre-existing Santa reviews since they will likely be neglible in the Friday projections.

Kenspy

Borat has been on the front page for the past few hours...likely to remain ther all day.

Rolling Thunder

Borat has been on the front page for the past few hours...likely to remain ther all day.



That hasn't affected the ratios in some time, but I kinda get the feeling it could to a degree with Borat.

xiayun

The written percentage should be high, probably around 1:4.

dolcevita

Guys! Is Borat kicking butt? I read some interesting reviews and commentary on it today. I'm thinking sold out today for even some shows tomorrow and Sunday, right?

Big question. Could it take #1 for the weekend even though its openning is more limited? I mean, technically it could pull north of 40,000 pta, right?

Mood-Swing Jon

dolcevita wrote:
Guys! Is Borat kicking butt? I read some interesting reviews and commentary on it today. I'm thinking sold out today for even some shows tomorrow and Sunday, right?

Big question. Could it take #1 for the weekend even though its openning is more limited? I mean, technically it could pull north of 40,000 pta, right?



Technically? Yes. Probably? No way in hell.

The highest I could see this going is F9/11's PTA of $27,000.

xiayun

40K in 800 theaters would shatter F9/11's record. $25K PTA should be the ceiling on this.

It has a better chance of winning Friday than the weekend.

dolcevita

Mood-Swing Jon wrote:

dolcevita wrote:
Guys! Is Borat kicking butt? I read some interesting reviews and commentary on it today. I'm thinking sold out today for even some shows tomorrow and Sunday, right?

Big question. Could it take #1 for the weekend even though its openning is more limited? I mean, technically it could pull north of 40,000 pta, right?



Technically? Yes. Probably? No way in hell.

The highest I could see this going is F9/11's PTA of $27,000.



Oh, really? I thought it would do much better because there were plenty of Michael Moore haters, and 9/11 was fresh in everyone's mind, and there's a big difference between the audiences for documentaries and comedies (there are more for the latter, even if its satire and political). Hmmm, so what do you see this making Jon? I'd ask "based on the Yahoo numbers" but I was skimming them and apparently Borat is so "clogged" that its shedding votes. LOL

dolcevita

xiayun wrote:
40K in 800 theaters would shatter F9/11's record. $25K PTA should be the ceiling on this.

It has a better chance of winning Friday than the weekend.



But the reviews are so good? And the guy gave the commencement speech at Harvard last year! Blink

Can I ask why people see 25-27 as the cap for this? Is it the reviewer numbers, or where other people reporting/predicting it,/ or is there not so much buzz as I thought there was because bABA's loud and I use him as a buzz gage?

Rolling Thunder

Borat - 33, +29, B+
Flushed Away - 7, +4, A-
The Santa Clause 3 - 30, +5, A-

xiayun

It's just that there is no precedent for a higher number. Since it's getting 2 screens on average (and I do see some one screen in a few smaller theaters in the area), it's pretty much require to fill an 80-90% capacity for every show in all 837 theaters to reach something like $35K PTA.

Rolling Thunder

xiayun wrote:
It's just that there is no precedent for a higher number. Since it's getting 2 screens on average (and I do see some one screen in a few smaller theaters in the area), it's pretty much require to fill an 80-90% capacity for every show in all 837 theaters to reach something like $35K PTA.



And I'm not so sure if that would happen with any movie, much less Borat.

dolcevita

It's just that there is no precedent for a higher number. Since it's getting 2 screens on average (and I do see some one screen in a few smaller theaters in the area), it's pretty much require to fill an 80-90% capacity for every show in all 837 theaters to reach something like $35K PTA.



Ok, I see. Its screens/theatre. But, haven't theatres been known to do some serious shuffling and screen count adding if they see a movie is selling out and in higher demand than the current screen count can accomodate?

Last few hours

Borat - 41 - 47 - 58, B+
Flushed Away - 9 - 11 - 16, B+ (down from A-)
The Santa Clause 3 - 31 - 34 - 41, B+ (down from A-)

Borat with 144 written; probably 500-600 overall. 11 for FA and 12 for SC3. Probably about 150 for each.

35k isn't quite as hard as you are implying. If any really, really hyped/marketed movie were released in only 800 theaters, it would likely do that kind of biz (i.e. if Pirates did 33k in 4100 theaters, it would annihilate 35k in 800). As someone pointed out, Blair Witch's initial PTA exceeded 35k adjusted for inflation (in 1100 theaters).

All that being said, it's not going to get close. It would've needed afternoon sell outs in major cities, and while I do see a lot of sell outs, I only found one before 4:00 pm.

If Borat were to open to $15m this weekend, it'd need around $5.5m Friday, which would be 1100 reviews for tonight with a 200 ratio. Either this is heading for $20m opening weekend or the ratio will be much higher.

Borat - 64, +6 B+ (157 written)
Flushed Away - 16, +0, B+
The Santa Clause 3 43, +2, B+

Looking like Yahoo is going to be worth jack shit today.

I think the written percentage will be between 1:3 and 1:4. Look very very good for $5m today.

]Borat - 74, +10, A- (180 written)
Flushed Away - 16, +0, B+ (11 user reviews)
The Santa Clause 3 47, +4, B+ (18 written)

Next hour should be the big unclog, hopefully. Flushed Away is ridiculously clogged as well.

Borat - 264, +190, B+ (191 written)
Flushed Away - 51, +35, B+(11 written)
The Santa Clause 3 102, +55, B- (20 written)

Still half-clogged for all three.

Borat - 325, +61, B+ (209 written)
Flushed Away - 56, +5, B+ (12 written)
The Santa Clause 3 111, +9, B- (23 written)

Now only 1/3 clogged.

Borat - 325, +61, B+ (209 written)
Flushed Away - 56, +5, B+ (11 written)
The Santa Clause 3 111, +9, B- (23 written)

Borat - 336, +9, B+ (214 written)
Flushed Away - 56, 0, B+ (14 written)
The Santa Clause 3 114, +9, B- (24 written)

Anyone know how clogged it is because these numbers seem awful for the time of day? Especially since Borat seems to be doing so well according to crowd reports, and sell-outs.

214 written reviews mean it's awefully clogged. Doesn't look like the traditional ratio will be useful at all today.