It's fun sitting where am I.

This is the first time I'm literally one of a handful of people on the forum supporting a film that come, oh say the 3rd week of Dec of so (depending on when critics grab hold), will become the clear frontrunner for BP.

Marty can have his BD but BP is spoken for.

I think the departed will and should win BP and BD which would be awesome last time a straight up action flick won was the french conection when I am pretty sure none of us were alive and no one should count out United 93. while the Queen has the best RT score The Departed and United 93 seem besides the yet to be seen Dreamgirls the only threats to win

Updated.

Marie Antoinette has been removed from the chart.

[table][row color=#000000][col]Film[col color=#000000][col color=#000000][col color=#A52A2A]Tomatometer[col color=#A52A2A]COTC Score[col color=#A52A2A]Average Rating[col color=#A52A2A]COTC Rating[col color=#FF0000]BFCA[col color=#7B68EE]Metacritic[col color=#7B68EE]Reviews[col color=#7B68EE]100's[col color=#000080]NSFC
[row][col]Marie Antoinette[col color=#D0D0D0]63[col color=#D0D0D0]56[col color=#D0D0D0]53%[col color=#D0D0D0]49%[col color=#D0D0D0]5.9[col color=#D0D0D0]6.1[col color=#FAEBD7][col]65[col]3[col]2[col color=#E6E6FA]75[/table]

The Departed is clearly the frontrunner now, and FOOF is outm all that will get is tech noms.

I see it right now like this:

The Departed
Dreamgirls
U93
The Queen(best reviewed movie in a long time)
Babel

Why?
Is this only for Best Picture contenders or more general?

I think there is still a shot at Best Actress (not a great one, but stil...) and definitely some techincal stuff. Plus, you have 2 100 scores and only a handful of films have any 100 scores.

I don't think it's gonna be one of the major players but don't see the harm in still tracking it for a while.

haha...it's never a big deal tracking this stuff when your time involved is just clicking on a link, but it gets time consuming on my end to track stuff just for the heck of it.

It's had over 100 reviews and it's got a rotten rating, and rotten ratings aren't allowed on the chart. I actually gave it more chances than I normally do, but it kept moving down instead of up.

It will probably get something for costumes, but it won't win anything there. Every major award is now out of the picture, so I don't see a reason to keep tracking it because "it'll probably get a nomination in an insignificant category that it won't win". We don't need the chart to tell us anything else about the film's award chances, especially in the more important races, and that's what the chart is all about. Letting go can be hard sometimes, but we all know it was time to say goodbye.

BFCA is getting really lazy. Their BP nominations are going to be interesting. Already 7 films have a score over 90, and I don't see them snubbing FOOF, then Dreamgirls will definitely be there with its release date regardless its reviews (e.g. Phantom and Memoirs). So there is really only one spot left for The Good German/The Good Shepherd/Bobby crowd.

Finally:

Flags Of Our Fathers - 93
Marie Antoinette - 75
Running With Scissors - 71

Anything below 80 is a bad score at BFCA.

James Berardinelli is reviewing Babel on Monday. He gave Amores Perros a 3-star and 21 Grams a 4-star; I expect at least 3.5-star here, most likely 4.

Not sure if anyone posted this, but consenus-whore Peter Travers gave Babel 4 stars:

http://www.rollingstone.com/reviews/mov ... 7181/babel

United 93 is starting it's campaign.

http://www.mcnblogs.com/thehotblog/arch ... ching.html

Sweet. That makes me happy; Babel is my most anticipated film of the year.

Babel still remains in my predictions for an Oscar nomination slot in Best Pic.

Travers:

"In the year's richest, most complex and ultimately most heartbreaking film, Inarritu invites us to get past the babble of modern civilization and start listening to each other."

...

"There is no way for a review to encompass the beautifully integrated, soul-searching portrait that Inarritu paints of a world in crisis. Pitt, raw and emotionally bruised, gives his most mature and moving performance to date. Cinematographer Rodrigo Prieto brings a poet's eye to the images. Stranded at the Mexican border, a victim of Bush immigration policy, Barraza leaves you shattered. At an ear-busting Tokyo disco, the sound goes dead so we hear only what Chieko hears. Kikuchi is unforgettable, nailing every nuance in her role. Just try to erase the sight of her, standing naked and vulnerable on a high-rise balcony while an uncaring city bustles below. All of Babel is like this – it's impossible to shake."


PEACE, Mike.

Awesome.

Babel is off to an average start: 70 at MC, one 100, three 50's; 76% RT, 7.2 average.

I think the movie that benefits the most from the disappointing start of Flags and the average early reviews for Babel is United 93. Along with The Queen it can take the crown of the critics favorite.

Not to mention it looks like Universal putting all (Or most) of their chips on U93. I mean, that's one ambitious campaign they have going. I'm really beginning to think it can overcome the unspectacular B.O. and early release date and get in.

Yup, I'll go one step further and say of the films released thusfar it's probably the second or third likeliest to get a BP nomination.

Furthermore, United 93 is going to receive a whole new boost from the amount of critics list mentions it get. It might even trump The Queen on Engin's Critics Top 10 Lists chart, considering United 93 is the only film I remember some reviewers specifically stating in their review or commentary that this film would be high on their top 10 list at the end of the year. This can honestly help. Engin's Top 10 Lists chart seems to hold more weight in regards to Oscars as the years go on. Last year (2005), all 5 Best Picture nominees at the Oscars were in the top 10 on that chart. (In 2003 and 2004, 4 of the 5 Best Picture noms were in the top 10 on the chart, and in 2001 and 2002, 3 of the 5 Best Picture noms were in the top 10 on the chart.) Following that pattern, all 5 nominees this year would be expected to be in the top 10 on the chart.

Of course, there's also the critics awards among other things that could help United 93 get that final push it needs. And if Universal is backing this one up for the Oscars, you can bet there will be quite a push.

PEACE, Mike.

loyal is already not feeling well. This talk about United 93 is not good medicine for him.

Updated.

Babel and Catch a Fire are now being linked to their metacritic pages.

Loyal has no right to say anything about United 93's chances because he still thinks Little Miss Sunshine will somehow be nominated.

PEACE, Mike.

I'm tempted to start using him as a precurser. It seems like movies that he loathes bite him in the ass and develope lockjaw.

I ran across this interesting article about Flags and it's less than expected box office and what that means for it's chances, if anybody's interested in reading about it.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/24/movie ... ref=slogin

Babel is this year's Crash. Mark my words.

UA93 won't be nominated.

but yes, I'm feeling worse now thanks to the campaigning.

Yep, 3.5 stars from James Berardinelli for Babel.

Still early but so far, Babel isnt looking so hot.

68 on MetaCritic

74% on RT but it's at 60% with CotC

But Babel has been a clear contender for a long time, and won´t surprise people the way "Crash" did.

It has to live up to the hype and so far, review-wise, It´s not doing it.