Betting? No. Predicting? Yes. How is the situation different from Munich? It isn't really... The thing is that competition this year is simply fairly weak.

Munich (And Gangs of New York, for another comparision) began losing steam while ballots were out, so they were still able to barely slide through. If this happened to FOOF in Decvember, it might be safe. But with those numbers now, it won't have enough steam.

Cinderella Man people, Cinderella Man.

Cinderella Man most likely would have been nominated for much more with a later release date. It also would have grossed more.

You know what films like Munich need in order to get in? Passion index support, i.e. many people putting it on the top of their lists. Flags seems like this kind of a film, just like Munich was.

That's exactly what I was thinking. With this opening in still mid-October, Flags is going to run out before it gets near awards season; it's not going to be able to ride the awards wave. And then when The Queen, United 93, Little Miss Sunshine, and even The Departed (etc) start topping the critics lists and awards (based on all 4 films having super RT and Metacritic scores with high rated reviews), they're going to gain steam over Flags that didn't hit as well with the critics overall. And if Dreamgirls comes out roaring... watch out. Babel and some others still have a chance to prove themselves, I think, too, despite some people writing them off rather early.

And I don't think this year is weak compared to last year. Last year was week after week of disappointing films that did not hold up to the Oscar hype (Memoirs, Producers, Munich, etc).

PEACE, Mike.

Fact remains that Flags is at 74%, which would be pretty friggin bad for a BP nominee. Only one movie this decade has had a lower score, and that was Chocolat... and well, Miramax pulled that out of their asses.

With the disappointment box-office numbers and no acting nominees... I'm not feeling it.

The important critics love it, it's Eastwood and Spielberg (says right at the end credits Produced by Clint Eastwood/Steven Spielberg), it's gonna get a ton of tech support, it's in. It's no more of a Cinderella Man than The Departed was another King Kong. There are a whole different set of rules and politics involved with this one.

The race to an actual win as come down to The Queen, Dreamgirls (as much as I hate to admit it) and The Departed and frankly, in my eyes, The Departed is leading by leaps and bounds right now.

Do you really think a small film like The Queen could win? I mean, it's looking good for some nominations, but a win? Eh.....

United 93!

I do. I could see senior academy members embrace it in a big way, especially if Flags can't manage a nomination. And if Flags and United 93 are both out, it'll actually be the film that takes on the "important" tag, as Diana's death is considered one of the biggest events in the past decade. It still needs a lot of things to happen though.

Right now, it all depends on Dreamgirls. It's one film that doesn't have any concern with the academy; it just needs very good reviews and box office.

I just personally don't see the academy considering anything more important than getting the Scorcese monkey off their back. I don't see anything being able to beat The Departed.

All star cast in Oscar worthy performances across the board.

Tremendous critical reception.

Strong box office and audience reception.

A great big "WE OWE MARTY FOR A CAREER OF STRONG WORK" factor.

Nothing else has as much going for it. It's slam dunked every hurdle. It'll top many critics lists, it'll be in the mix for the SAG ensemble award. DGA. WGA. PGA.

It would have to be something with even stronger reviews, a "big" picture, better box office, etc... The Departed is the bar that has been set, and something would have to do better in all of those areas for them to deny Marty yet again. Not likely.

Yep yep yep, it's had everything go right for it in ways that countless BP nominess and many winners haven't. If something else manages to win against it for BP, it has yet to be released, and it will be amazing.

I agree. Obviously, a split could happen, but is it really realistic to believe that the academy would only give Marty "half" of an award after all of the cock teasing? I don't see them pulling that stunt. They'll give the man his night with respect.

The Departed is easily the front runner for BP and almost a lock for BD. The thing is an entertaining film that is also getting great reviews. And now its become a box office titan too.

If a film upsets for BP - it will be The Queen. But that will be happy with Best Actress.

The jury is still out Dreamgirls, but its pretty much the only one that can beat Departed if its good. I doubt Blood Diamond or The Good Shephard can beat it. The Good German is about the only other one with potential that hasnt been released.

I am very confident about The Departed being nominated for BP and BD with at least two acting noms along with screenplay and editing. I'm less confident about wins as Marty being due hasn't seemed to matter much before. Though I would love to see The Departed win BP, BD, Actor (Leo), Supp Actor (Mark) and screenplay.

Leo is definitely a frontrunner for a win with The Departed, and if The Blood Diamond is good, he might be a lock for the win.

I also think The Departed is going to take the win.

I don't see how any of the remaining films can put up an argument/defense half as good as one for The Departed.

I'd say the closest would be Flag of our Fathers probably because we haven't seen war in the academy for a while now.

I agree, It´s Dreamgirls´ turn now. If the movie gets at least as good a reception as Chicago did, BP is almost assured. And I could easily see an split there and Scorsese winning BD.

A nice endorsement for Flags, and something that the LA based academy members are sure to read.

http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/ne ... &cset=true

I have no doubt Dreamgirls will impress the academy. They love Bill Condon and they love "quality musicals". Having an all black cast is a definite bonus, and spanning the 60's and 70's certainly locks in the tech support needed to pull a BP win.

I agree. But a lot of things need to fall into the right place for that to happen. It needs the box-office. So far it's doing splendidly.

However, I do doubt that the Academy will award two small-ish films in a row. No matter how successful, The Queen won't make more than $60 million or so. The Departed is a bona fide hit and beloved by audiences like no other film this year.

I predict it to be nominated, bgut it'll be the lowest-grossing BP nominee this year. No way it's winning.

That's why Kinsey was showered with noms, right?

Kinsey was never going to be showered with noms but it was Oscar nominated. As was Gods and Monsters. As was Chicago. As will Dreamgirls.

Yes, it will be. Plenty of technical noms, a couple of acting noms and if lucky and successful a BP. A win? Keep dreamin' (pun intended)