The Guardian 385, +30, B
Open Season 287, +9, B
School For Scoundrels 241, +9, B-

If The Guardian can muster one more big update, it may have an outside shot at $7M. We'll need Scott's figures later to determine if that's likely.

Two-hour:

The Guardian 437, +52, B
Open Season 306, +19, B
School For Scoundrels 272, +31, B (up from B-)

I see The Guardian winning Friday. School for Scoundrels should have $3.5m.

School was on the Front Page, so the bleak gets bleaker.

Final:

The Guardian 447, +10, B
Open Season 309, +3, B
School For Scoundrels 274, +2, B

I think it is clogged, but the numbers still don't seem that strong.

I'd estimate:
Guardian - 5.9m
Open Season - 5.4m
School for Scoundrels - 2.6m

My projections:

The Guardian - $6.2M
Open Season - $5.1M
School For Scoundrels - $2.7M

Well, these last two projections certainly benefit me. :-)

I think we have a record-low ratio with Open Season, if estimates hold.

All of them were quite low, as Thunder predicted.

I never noticed how low of a grade The Texas Chainsaw Massacre had.

Ratios with actuals:

Guardian - 76.98
Open Season - 49.74
School for Scoundrels - 94.68

Open Season is a new record low for ratios, across all genres.

Well, Version 1.0 of the automated Yahoo forecaster is complete and is set to debut this weekend. It doesn't appear we have the ability to attach/upload files on these threads, so if you'd like a copy of the spreadsheet, pass along your e-mail and I'll get it to you ASAP.

It's mostly self-explanatory, and all the values can be changed to your preference. Only the shaded columns will need to be adjusted each weekend. I've tried to make the color scheme the least distracting as possible. You can always ask me which projection estimates and IMs I anticipate for the weekend, and I have provided an area for last weekend's openers as a reference.

This is the latest tool at my disposal for Thunder's Forecast, but is by no means intended as the be-all/end-all of the factors I consider in the weekly projections.

I think Bloodrayne has the highest ratio. Any idea why?

Because it's Uwe Boll.

Many people died in the viewing of that film.

If they did then wouldn't that mean lower ratio?

LOL - good one. I really doubt we'll see a ratio that high again. Even ratios that are 200+ are becoming rare these days.

For tomorrow's ratios, I am inclined to aim low once again:

The Departed will have its fair share of teens and young adults, but I expect a ratio more in-line with adult fare. The Bourne Supremacy had 78, while Inside Man & Ocean's Twelve chimed in at 71 & 62, respectively. I'm going with 70.

TCM: The Beginning probably matches best with Exorcist: The Beginning, which posted a ratio of 102. Earlier this year, Pulse chimed in with 89, followed by The Descent with 101. I'll go with 95, but as a sequel, it could be higher depending on the early pace.

Employee of the Month should have a standard ratio for a non-anticipated comedy with a good theater count. A number of relevant 2006 films fall in the 90-100 ratio range, so once again, I'm going with 95.

Collateral had 94. Given the trend, I'll go with 75 for The Departed. 100 for TCM and 110 for Employee of the Month.

I agree. Well, I could see EOTM under 100.

I could actually see it going pretty high thanks to Jessica Simpson and especially Dane Cook...

Can someone explain this ratio business? You can either PM me if you dont want to talk about it here, or not, your choice.

Divide the number of yahoo reviews by the Friday number and it will give you the film's ratio.

So if Employee of the Month has 500 reviews and then makes $3.9m on friday - its ratio would be 128.

So if Employee of the Month gets 350 reviews and DP07 predicts its ratio to be 100 - then the Friday prediction would be $3.5m opening day.

I hope i havnt confused you even more

Well, all that I really understood what how to get the ratio.

Im sure the ratio depends on the genre of the film, and it's theatre count. So....the higher the ratio, the better? I dont understand why for example, you would predict 70 for The Departed, but 100 for TCM....

Older audience. Horror fans are more likely to review a movie on the internet then people over 50.

A higher ratio is worse with the number of reviews being equal. Even if TCM has 600 reviews and Departed has 500, the Departed would still be doing better.

I'm not sure. TN had a low ratio along with many other recent comedies. You might have expected Jackass 2 to have a high ratio with its fans, but that wasn't the case. I'm not sure Dane Cook will inflate the ratio. Jessica Simpson might though since I think she can draw some fake negative reviews.