My projections:

Gridiron Gang: $4.8M - $5.4M
The Black Dahlia: $4.2M - $5.0M
Everyone's Hero: $1.8M - $2.3M
The Last Kiss: $1.3M - $1.6M

From the theater reports, there's no reason Dahlia shouldn't have a 3+ IM and win the weekend.

Unless of course, the people that might go see Dahlia (ie film lovers) are more likely to post reviews/ratings on Yahoo than those who'd go see Gridiron Gang.

dp

Dahlia is having an awful reception, so I doubt a 3+ weekend multiplier. Bad WOM is going get out FAST with this film, people are already ripping it a new asshole around the net.

I doubt the WOM could be so toxic that it would destroy its OW. If the film is really that bad, its legs will be crappy. The Yahoo grade suggests that it isn't a pure disaster, so I think it will hold up alright. I'm still excited to see it later today despite the negativity.

grid iron gang had to much good marketing to openm below 6 million

Despite the frustrating clogging, it looks like another good weekend for Yahoo. Three of the ratios were a tad higher than I estimated, but certainly not abnormal. Dahlia was about 162, and Gridiron/Last Kiss came in around 91. Everyone's Hero was about 138, posting a high ratio even with an improved grade.

This was a horrible weekend for Yahoo...

Why do you say that? The only ratio that may have been off was Last Kiss, but like xiayun pointed out, it is an R-rated film that drew a lot of adults. I think Everyone's Hero was so high because it did have a lot of bad reviews, even if the overall grade stabilized by the end of the day. I think we've seen that Christopher Reeve has inflated the ratios two weeks in a row - last week in a film largely about him, and this week, with a film that he directed.

Hollywoodland is about George Reeves.

Ah, yes.

Easy to say it was good in retrospect, but I think the purpose is projecting a gross, and for that it was not very beneficial IMO.

Your numbers look close, but all the grosses are so low that the percentages are way off, i.e. 2.10 (median) to 1.54 is almost 40% too high.

Not taking a shot at your projections, just at the predictive power of Yahoo! this week.

My numbers were too high, but usually the median of everyone's estimates are pretty close. The problem was, no one else offered their projections this week, which made mine the highest.

Ya you could be right.

Jackass: Number Two: Won't be higher than Clerks II. Good theater count too. I'll guess 160.

Fearless: Unleashed had 128.48, Hero 109.55. Hero was delayed for two years and had Tarantino's backing, and neither factor propelled the ratio higher. Kung Fu Hustle did have a ratio of 152.88, but that was targeted to a more niche market. Jet Li's appeal is broader, so I expect Fearless' ratio to be 100-110.

Flyboys: I was surprised to find Stealth had a ratio of 196.46, The Island 255.58, and Annapolis 308.39. I was thinking a lower ratio, but I guess maybe it will more in the 150 range.

All the King's Men: even though it's getting trashed, it shouldn't get anywhere close to Alexander's ratio of 540.87 since that was caused by the controversial subject. Don't think this will generate that much emotion, just a bad film. So still give it a regular adult-oriented ratio of 100.

I don't see Flyboys having a higher ratio then Fearless, it seems to cater to a much older audience, not to mention a lot of people have already seen Fearless, maybe not as many as Hero but it's had a DVD quality copy out forever.

Jackass: Number Two 7, +7, A+
Fearless 15, +15, B+
All the King's Men 14, +14, B
Flyboys 11, +11, B+

Didn't check right after midnight PST, so the numbers could all be from before the 12:30 update.

Jackass: Number Two 14, +7, A+
Fearless 17, +2, B+
All the King's Men 14, +0, B
Flyboys 11, +0, B+

Jackass: Number Two 16, +2, A+
Fearless 21, +4, B+
All the King's Men 15, +1, B
Flyboys 11, +0, B+

Jackass is significantly clogged and probably has a good 70 reviews or so already.

Jackass: Number Two 17, +1, A
Fearless 28, +7, B+
All the King's Men 16, +1, B
Flyboys 12, +1, B

No need to worry about the Jackass. Its count is gonna take off like a jet-powered bicycle.

Just an FYI: WSEX has their Jackass line at $22M, Pinnacle at $21M.

Jackass: Number Two 22, +5, A-
Fearless 41, +13, B+
All the King's Men 17, +1, B
Flyboys 13, +1, B

Written (+ projected) reviews at this hour:

Jackass: 24 (144)
Fearless: 7 (41)
King's Men: 10 (60)
Flyboys: 6 (36)

Jackass: Number Two 27, +5, A-
Fearless 46, +5, B+
All the King's Men 19, +2, B
Flyboys 16, +3, B

For some reason, Fearless is the only one that isn't really clogged.

So you're saying Kings Men 10 million opening weekend and Jackass 24 million?

I hear Fearless is lame. Too much reading.