http://www.moviecitynews.com/awards/200 ... 60906.html

These guys were pretty much embarrassingly bad when they made early predictions last season, so remember that when checking out this year's early charts.

I need to have a talk with Sasha Stone...

It is not looking bad for them this year, but...what the hell does WTC do above United 93?!

I wish I had their early charts from last year. These are "experts"? Some of them let their personal bias cloud their objectivity, for instance, Sasha Stone's continous push and spin doctoring for King Kong. (I see she's on the Dreamgirls bandwagon this year) I have no idea why WTC would even make it on any lists. It's clearly out of the running.

The Last King of Scotland is off the charts...LMS is below WTC...hehehe

Bobby's on ONE list.

Great thing about Flags is that its out the gate early and we'll know soon whether or not its golden.

It's got the problem of unfair expectations that it has to overcome. It's almost like it's expected to be a masterpiece, and anything less will be a letdown. That's the biggest hurdle it faces.

you summed it up.

It would be easier to gauge if Eastwood had directed something this large before. But this is completely uncharted waters.

And it's from Kris Tapley, who saw the film and gave it 3.5 stars out of 4.

His grades on the contenders he has seen so far:

4 stars - Babel, The Last King of Scotland
3.5 stars - Bobby, Little Miss Sunshine, The Queen, World Trade Center
3 stars - Hollywoodland, United 93
2.5 stars - Little Children

Babel looks like it's definitely going to be fighting for a spot. Those first 3 listed just might make the grade.

Bobby
The Last King of Scotland
Babel
The Good German
Little Children

Possible combination, yes. There are many possibilities that will join Bobby in the top 5.

Bobby
Flags of Our Fathers
The Good Shepherd
Dreamgirls
The Departed

WTC being so high is ridiculous.

From the current buzz - the best contenders for BP with a realistic chance of a nod are:

Bobby
Dreamgirls
Babel
Little Children

The rest we will just have to wait and see...

Are we perhaps jumping the gun on Bobby? Things are looking positive at the moment, but so many things can and do go wrong. But it's definitely in play, something I would have doubted just a few weeks back.

And I'm feeling a bit down on Flags at the moment. Just a bit.

I find all of these amateur sites utterly clueless. 'Nice website, shame about the content' seems to sum it up. Tapley & Stone are downright embarrassing in the way they shill for whatever movie catches their fancy at any particular moment. The most frustrating thing is that not only that they can't seem to put their personal biases aside but they also don't seem to have any real clue as to how the Academy works.

Yes, definitely.

When you're shooting for credibility, the worst thing you can do is bury it by defying logic and replcaing it with a bias that is not hard to identify as nothing more than that. Many of these "experts" do seem quite in the dark about the process of awards season. It's not that hard to keep your objectivity concerning all of this stuff. Flags of Our Fathers is definitely my #1 Oscar hopeful, but I'd be fooling myself if I didn't realize the kinds of obstacles that are in front of it. Five other films could easily come in and rip the rug right out from under it. When films that those guys are backing hit a brick wall, they seem to prefer spinning the situation instead of showing any ability to quickly recognize what just happened.

No, I don't jump guns, I only go with my gut when I'm very sure, and I'm very sure about Bobby being a BP nominee.

But so were you about Walk the Line this early in the year

At this point there is not a single BP nominee lock.

Do you REALLY want to compare my track record last year against yours? I'd gladly do a compariosn between you and me if you would like. Just give the word.

Bobby is a Best Picture lock. Case closed.

What's Volver doing above both of them?

As much as I'd love my Spanish darling to be that close to a bp nomination, or even a direction nomination, its just not going to happen.

Oh, are we offended? Thing is, I am not pointing out anything as a lock for a BP nom at this point. You are. Last year you did the same to WTL whereas you should realize that at this point of the year NOTHING is a lock.

Why not? He was nominated for Direction/Screenplay for Talk to Her (for the screenplay Oscar even, I think). Volver is much more "mainstream" than his recent films and it has been hailed by critics and audiences alike so far.

Not offended at all. Walk the Line was a legit snub.

Now, would you like to compare you against me since you brought it up, and we'll see who comes out on top? If trying to discredit is your game, and that's what is was, we can take that a big step forward.

Bobby is a lock. Mark it down.

That was his peak. Notice he got nothing for the movies he did after that. Also, that was because he was snubbed for official Spanish selection, so unless the Academy awarded him in unorthodox nominations, Talk to Her wouldn't have even shown up that night anywhere on the ballot.

Its incredibly hard for a foreign movie to get a bp nom. Its happened maybe twice (Crouching Tiger, Life is Beautiful) in all my memories of the event. And I know Almodovar. As "main stream" as everyone says Volver is, the man is just a little too quirky, to make bp stuff.

Yeah, I'd definitely agree that Volver isn't going to get anything (unless the reviews are so tremendous that it can't be denied)

Penelope Cruz is that picture's best shot.

This is how it always is. Whenever someone calls you on something you try to compare and show that you're obviously "better", but the difference is that right now I am not pinning down anything as a lokc while you are. Back at the same point last year I pinned down Geisha as a lock and you WTL both turned out to be wrong. I learned my lesson and not calling anything a lock in early September. You are. It is not about comparisons between me and you it is about you and just you.