The 2 biggest shocks in BO I can remember were Spiderman and Passion of the Christ. Titanic was a shock in a different way for me its openign was about what i thought it would be its legs were amazing. I had though HP would make 250 million and I had predicted FotR at 380 million. I can be really off a lot.

My worst perdiction ever was 280 million for TDAT

I had predicted low for TDAT mostly because I hated ID4(it is the only film I walked out on in the middle). However I ended up liking TDAT more than ID4 and actually wished it made a little more.

I tried to make a list of points for and against a record-breaking opening for PotC2:

Points in favor of PotC2 :
-The leggy run of the first film indicates strong word of mouth and the creation of a fanbase.
-At CinemaMontreal ( user-review site for the region of Montreal in Quebec): it is both the highest-rated movie of all time AND the movie with most reviews.
-At Yahoo Movies, it has a strong B+ rate along with one of the highest review count ever (#2 of all time, I think?).
-Some of the best DVD sales ever indicate more growth of the fanbase.
-It has had a lot of advertising and has been spoken of as the biggest film of the year ever since the year started.
-Shrek 2.
-It is a sequel to a major blockbuster; we all know that sequels are all the rage at the boxoffice these days.

Points against PotC2 :
-At IMDB, it’s not rated that great and its review count isn’t that big.
-The fact that it sold a very large portion of its DVDs in its first 4 weeks indicate not that it slowly built a fanbase, but rather that a lot of people who already knew about the film rushed out to buy it for themselves or as Christmas gift.
-It’s coming out in July, not May. All of the $100M openers have either opened in May or November, the two months most favourable to big openings. PotC2 won’t have the advantage that May movies have: it’s the start of the summer season, people look to movies to pump their summer up. In July, the summer is already old.
-It is a comedy and it doesn’t have anything to it to make people want to rush out to see it right away. The film promises to offer a fun time, nothing more. Nobody goes in for the plot or for a highly anticipated sequence (like Matrix and Star Wars). That might make some people wanna wait a few days/weeks before going to see it, even though they do anticipate it.
-It is not the first big blockbuster in a while, unlike Shrek 2 in 2004 and Star Wars in 2005. To take back a term used in the context of Star Wars’s hype, the industry isn’t waiting to “explode at PotC2’s launch”; it has already exploded a few times and semi-exploded a few more times.


I'm really not sure what to expect. I think a sub-$100M opening is as likely as a $115-120M one. Anything above $125M is ridiculous, IMO.

most likely 100-110 million opening and is entirely capable of it.

I'll agree it is capable of 110 million dollar opening. I have it more for 90 million though in my derby I will be putting 90 million.

106 million. Went up form 95 million from two weeks ago.

I don't see enough hype to justify moving my prediction beyond 95 million. I had no interested in X3 either but there was plenty of Hype behind that opening.

Now I know some people will come in here and say what oyu mean not enough hype... I have a feeling many people in here who are predicting 130+ are letting their fan boy side of them go whacked nothing wrong with that, it must be nice to be excited by a movie this year however it doesn't mean your prediction will happen and you will be dissappointed if you think anything over 125.

You may say the opposite about me that I am ignoring the hype for this film because I didn't like the first one and am not interested in this one. Maybe true but as I said if that were the case I would be saying 20 million or if I was trying to be realistic I might say 50 million. There are many films that get hyped up beyond belief that I don't like but I can still see the hype it may make my eyes roll but I can still see it or hear people talk about it.

This sort of reminds me about MI3 which people were saying was a lock for 70 million and ended up with 47 million. Hell I gave in and even predicted 57 million for that.
'

Pirates will see around 33 million opening day maybe a little higher a small increase on saturday and about a 20% drop on Sunday

i was below 100 million but once i saw the tracking over 110 million i knew there must be something going on.

I'm hardly a Pirates fanboy.

Brian's FINAL Pirates of the Caribbean:Deadmans Chest Prediction

Opening Weekend
Opening Day:52m
Saturday:46.8m -10%
Sunday:38.3m -18%
WEEKEND TOTAL:137.1m
Day 4:19.9m -48%
Day 5:17.5m -10%
Day 6:15.22m -15%
Day 7:14m -8%
5 DAY TOTAL:174.5m
6 DAY TOTAL:189.72m
Opening Week:203.72
Second Weekend
Friday:23.1m +65%
Saturday:32.8m +42%
Sunday:23.61m -28%
SECOND WEEKEND TOTAL:79.51m -42%
Day 11:11.56m -48%
Day 12:10.9m -6%
Day 13:9.81m -10%
Day 14:9.3m -5%
Second Week:121.08m -41.%
14 DAY TOTAL:324.8M
TOTAL:553.8m
INTERNATIONAL:580m
WW :1.133.8billion

4.04 multiplier

If there's anything that I'm sure of with this movie, it's that it will not top $50 million in one day, let alone the $58 million+ Friday predictions some of you are giving. *cough* BJ *cough* Sith, I heartily believe, was the most anticipated film in recent memory, and it just managed $50 million. How will this do better, with much less rabid fanboys? Makes no sense to me.

$45 million opening day, sure, but 50? Not happening.

62m opening day.

But part of me wonders if it can shock with like 83m and head for a 700m gross.

Oh, DP...

As much as I would love to see that happen, it's not. There's no precedent for it.

What was the precedent for Spider-Man? Harry Potter? The Lost World? Batman 89? Return of the Jedi? Jaws?

Spider-Man increased about 127% over Harry Potter, which increased about 125% over The Lost World, which increased about 133% over Batman Forever. If Pirates increases 130% over Spider-Man, that's $150 million. That's the absolute max I could see for it opening weekend. That is the ceiling.

Whilst I find your blind optimism amusing, it's getting a bit tiresome. Let's just wait for the weekend, shall we?

Erm.. Spider-man increase 27% over Harry Potter, which increase about 25% over The Lost World and so on. You need sleep.

DP07, I love your predictions but that's beyond anything possible. Even $62 million feels impossible.

Uhh... you know what I mean...

Yes I do.

It was 37% for The Lost World. Same for Batman 89. That would be 157 if it happens here. However neither of those beat records as weak as this one. It's 4 years old and ready to be broken easily. Also, if not for HP opening when it did the record would have been beated by 59% by SM.



It's not blind, what else can I say? I still will make my thread. But in any case this weekend can't get here soon enough.

I'm largely joking. But I won't say 83m is impossible.

But 62m is where I stay.

Based on the screen counts so far, I think $60 million opening day is pretty much impossible.

I don't think Pirates 2 is gonna be the cultural phenomenon that Spider-Man or Harry Potter were, though. Both of them had pretty much empty marketplaces. And Potter broke a four year old record, too.

If this makes over $150 million opening weekend, I will never say another word against you. But if it doesn't...?

I've been taking you predictions too seriously lately.

62 Million on opening day? Whats the maximum possilble for one day? whats the official theatre count for POTC 2