I actually overpredicted it by alot ($200m) - but its a good film and gives the viewer more than they expected when walking into the theatre. It could have gone a little higher if it opened better and didnt have POTC/Superman after it.

Yeah... I mean. It's pretty common knowledge. They shot both of the movies together and a large portion of Pirates 3 is already in the can.

Richards is doing his part in pick-ups (don't expect a huge part IMO).

I don't believe in a rush job, because they have been working on both for a long time, and the ILM division responsible for Pirates actually has a very nice, long 9 months to do the effects work which isn't that bad.

Matrix should have done what Pirates did, wait at least a year, but not longer.

Exactly, I didn't know how to interpret the crowd reports since I didn't know what the actual capacity was.

Well, the crowd reports I saw here, at HSX and elsewhere on the internet all were similar with night showings all going sold out. Now, it obviously wasn't like that everywhere, but I think it certainly had an effect.


I will deny you the number, because good predictions are based off of what can actually happen mixed with a solution of "what is likely to happen". You went for the most extreme in all of your senarios. I'm off on my 42m (without midnights) but I told Lecter on IM that I would not be surprised if it could make the #1 opening. And I'm a little surprised by it's strength but not shocked. My 280 prediction is already blown out of the water though.

I don't think anybody's going to hold you to anything because most of us are not petty enough to care about certain things. It's one thing to acknowledge your crazy prediction, but it's another thing to deal with it gracefully, which you are doing for the most part.

That said, most of us are reacting against your Titanic/550m predictions, not your 400 million predictions.

Yes. I regret going crazy yesterday for taking attention away here from where it should be: on POTC's success.

I'm guessing you work for WB. Only explanation I can think of being that bitter

Good lord. $55.5 million opening day. If not for Yahoo!, I'd never expect that (guess it kind of ruined my excitement, heh). But yeah, fantastic. Opening weekend record is finally destroyed. Good call, BJ and DP!

Oh, and great holds for everything, really. I underpredicted every film.

Kenspy, I know this is random, but who is in your ave? You? Cause it looks like a scene out of a Kusturica movie for some reason.

Its Sacha Cohen playing Borat

Even my excitment isn't ruined.



That's the attitude. Shout it from the rooftops.



Thanks. Where's BJ anyway?

So that means still more insane predictions from you in the future?

hanging around, want to see some midnight showing numbers.

Well, I originally thought it'd do $180+ million as well.

Of course.......




I'm certainly still at 170m+ for POTC 3. Disney will give it more prints.

Every time I look at these huge numbers, I think back to my two local theaters, whose tickets were for a long time always priced at a great $5.50. And within the past year, both have jacked them up to $8.50.

And then I'm like...

Are these numbers really that impressive?

Sorry, yes, grrreat for Pirates, but those were just my first thoughts.

Where do you live? It could partly be due to soaring property taxes.

Awesome. I can't believe Spidey is finally going down, it's fantastic.

I think it can reach 390 mil+, getting a leg up on Sith, ROTK, and Spidey 2, but not much more. That's still bloody brilliant though... 6th or 7th biggest film ever made.

This record should hold for a while, like Spidey's 115.4 mil, I think. Spidey 3 could get around 130 mil, the same audience as what the second should've gotten minus holiday weekend plus inflation. Pirates 3 I'm certain will decrease, because as we all know for 3rds, it all depends on the 2nd's WOM, and while people are loving this one, the general consenseous is that it's definitley underneath the first. 125 mil is possible though.

Shrek 3 is the one I could see taking this down, though it should be hella close. It's a sequel to the 3rd biggest movie ever made, which had fantastic reviews and WOM, and which has done well on DVDs as we expected. That movie had a 4 multiplier, it's guaranteed this time that the third will be a lot more frontloaded. I see 130 mil+, but by how much is the question.

Whoever wins May 07 will close out the decade, I believe.

I agree with it being a while for this to be topped. I am not sure if any of the big guns will do it next year. SM3 has the best chance but It think it will fall short, Shrek 3 I don't think will, POTC 3 is on Memorial Day and it will set the Memorial Day Record but I don't think it will set the 3 day, and OOTP won't do it at best that would do 110, IMO. I actually think the next possible film (unless we have another surprise) would probably be HP 7 because that will be the last one.

what a damn shame


boooooooooo

Where do you live? I haven't paid $8.50 for a movie since 1996.



edit***So when are Friday numbers being released from I site I actually recognize? Who is this dougny guy?

I don't quite think Shrek 3 has that big a chance.

It seems next year we're gonna see 3 possible 100m+ opener in the same month...Holy mother f...er!

dolce, it's on BOM.

This is also the last summer blockbuster of 2006, sadly. Damn that went fast, MI:3 kicking off May seemed like such a short time ago. We're almost certain to see nothing over 65 mil+ OW until Spider-man 3.

Bring on 2007. God I can't wait.

HAPPY FEET!!! $70m

I hope Miami Vice will get pushed more, so we might see $40 million from that one. Happy Feet should open to $50 million. Other than these, I don't really see huge openings anymore. Maybe Casino Royale for $45 million.

Solid opening so far for Scanner Darkly. It hope it hits $25,000 pta.