Over the last several years you cant dismiss the "must see" opening weekend factor. And the margins just keep grow each year. Usually followed by big drops in the upcoming weeks. This wasnt so much a factor 10 years ago and before.

This late in the summer movies don't drop 35% on Sunday. 20% at most.

PS, BOM has superman at 7.1 a rise of 33%. I still think it might hit 24-25 million if thats the best estimate.

Nah, even with X3's low multiplicator (2.28) it would still be $126.5m ($55.5m x 2.28 = $126.5m)

that beats spiderman 2's july opening weekend by 54.924m':happy:'

Unlikely. I think $23 million is really the best case scenario.

Blah, that was all the fun. This was my most anticipated BO number of all-time. What do you expect.

Do you hear that?? That is the sound of Disney execs praising on their knees to the lord of the summer blockbuster, Jerry Bruckheimer. And that is also the sound of a 4th Pirates getting the green light as both Bruckheimer and Depp want to continue to make more of them.

Good for Pirates. Too bad it was nothing more than a soulless cash-grab by Disney and a big bore of a movie.

I'm running out of the alphabet.

You mean sat right?

Dropping 15% for a huge opening day iswvery likely.If it drops like 15% on saturday. Its sunday drop would be bigger percent wise than the typical movie

You seriously did expect $65 million or so, though. So how do you explain that it didn't do that?

It's gonna drop about 25% on Saturday, mark my words...

ten years ago the opening weekend record was 52 million.. now people are getting that in a day.















in ten years wll movies be getting 150 million in a day?

Well, everywhere in the country it seems to have been sold out at night. Hundreds were turned away at many theaters. Even theaters that just about never sold out did so. Now, I thought capacity was high enough for a much bigger number, but clearly it wasn't. I suppose it had fewer prints then I thought.

Well, you won't deny to me that the number would have been higher if not for all the sellouts. Crowd reports prove that.

That's Plan A. No Plan B for me; that's all I have.


But seriously, this is a great day for POTC. It's on it's way to breaking every opening record.

But it's not like you didn't know it would be this way beforehand. You still expected $65 million. Your Plan B.

That would be dumb. They need to wait until Summer 2008. Not rush it and get Keith richards to do his cameo. They need to do it right, and they've laid down alot of tracks that need to come together in III. They shouldn't do a rush job. Fans will wait. If anything, look at how successful waiting three years was for II.



I don't know if it was the same everywhere, but for me it was odd because Pirates wasn't playing in the usual theatres I go to (which still were full of Supes, Prada, and took on Scanner Darkly). I think there was a lack of spillover because they weren't playing in the same theatres. Da Vinci was though, so I think people that were showing up for sold out Pirates went to that. They didn't leave the theatre and walk 20 blocks south to the next nearest theatre to see Supes and Prada. I predict some pretty irratic holds due to theatre/screen distribution of the Pirates release.

I don't get what you mean. I was just wrong on what the capacity was. Stupid Disney should have given this 12,000 prints. Hopefully they do next year.

Oh boy, Spiderman 3 is going to have serious competition next May. If you didn't know, POTC: At World's End is being released on Memorial Day weekend 2007.

Since the honorable Steve Jobs is Disney's largest owner, I don't mind Disney pocketing this much cash.

You said that, even with the crowd reports in. I can find more.

WOW. Just WOW for POTC2. Kudos to those who dared to predict big.
Looks like its heading for a $130ish weekend and a $360-$380 total - thanks to lack of competition. May 07 is going to be mega!! Id prefer them to move it to July. The lines at the theatre tonight were the biggest ive seen since FOTR's opening day.

Sad for Supes - but expected. A shame cos I saw it tonight and its very good. Better than POTC2 - but not as big an event or as much fun. Stupid WB for releasing it when it did.

Dr Lecter's wrap up about expected grosses is good. Shows that the summer looks fairly good afterall. Cars and Click are doing great which is good to see.

Thanks.

I am actually a bit surprises that Click is going to end up with (most likely) the third-best mutliplier of all Sandler's huge hits.

Well they are releasing it Memorial Day 07. Id prefer it in July or 2008 but with the cliffhanger Disney isnt taking chances.

Whatever data you pulled this from isn't realistic, it's based on spot reports and somewhere you have to figure that into your predictions. Yesterday I kinda kept an eye on it, and Pirates tickets were still available for midnight showings in my area, and since Fandango screwed up my tickets, I was able to walk into an 11:30am showing yesterday at 11:15 which was pretty full but never showed out. And no lines for any of the other shows after it. This is like when Serenity was selling out theaters here, only later did they make mention that in Seattle and San Francisco, Serenity were heavy sellers.


I will deny you the number, because good predictions are based off of what can actually happen mixed with a solution of "what is likely to happen". You went for the most extreme in all of your senarios. I'm off on my 42m (without midnights) but I told Lecter on IM that I would not be surprised if it could make the #1 opening. And I'm a little surprised by it's strength but not shocked. My 280 prediction is already blown out of the water though.

I don't think anybody's going to hold you to anything because most of us are not petty enough to care about certain things. It's one thing to acknowledge your crazy prediction, but it's another thing to deal with it gracefully, which you are doing for the most part.

That said, most of us are reacting against your Titanic/550m predictions, not your 400 million predictions. I thought Pirates 2 max was 320 million last week, then 350 million a couple days ago, but that seems to be pretty low.


It is a big day for the Box Office. In many ways, it proves that it is still possible. It has been a troubling couple of years.

I got your joke Dark Shape. They're not rushing they've had this planned since the start. Kieth Richards is already in, they filmed about half after finishing "Dead Man's Chest" they go back next month to finish it off.