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 POTC2 Friday $55.06m - dougny 
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Wow, just Wow! A $130m weekend is now likely. Possibly $140m? I estimated around $108m on the Derby and thought I might be a little high. :hahaha:

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Sat Jul 08, 2006 12:40 pm
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Thats incredible for pirates 2.

fri:55.5
sat:44.4
sun:33.3
133.2


Sat Jul 08, 2006 12:43 pm
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Too many times, I had hope that the 3-day record would break, but was disappointed.

Sith
Xmen 3
HP4
Shrek 2
HP3
The Matrix 2

Sith, Xmen 3, and HP3 were the real spoilers...I was a bit hesitant about getting excited about the 3day weekend after Friday numbers (I saw more around $49 m), so the $55.5 m Friday, even with Xmen 3 legs it would still get $125 m +, and a 2.08 multiplier isn't happening, so I'm very excited to see the record finally be broken...particularly by a franchise that I like...


Sat Jul 08, 2006 12:45 pm
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neo_wolf wrote:
Thats incredible for pirates 2.

fri:55.5
sat:44.4
sun:33.3
133.2


Its not dropping over 15% on Sunday.


Sat Jul 08, 2006 12:45 pm
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Fantastic! :hahaha:


Sat Jul 08, 2006 12:47 pm
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To echo everyone else: wow. I never expected this to get over $50 million opening day, let alone $55 million. Incredible. Should do around $140 million for the weekend. It'll be ahead of Superman by Sunday.

And wow at Scanner Darkly as well. It's gonna do about $350,000 for the weekend. Quite impressive.

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Sat Jul 08, 2006 12:50 pm
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fri: $55m
sat: $42m
sun: $35m
total: $132m

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Sat Jul 08, 2006 12:50 pm
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Magnus wrote:
I think POTC2 OW is evidence that SM1 OW wasn't that high as it seemed. I mean, if ROTS was releaed on a Fridy, its OW would probably just be a couple million lower than POTC2.


Well Spideys adjusted OW would be about $126,500,000. No matter how you cut it thats huge. POTC2 is just bigger... Amazing.

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Sat Jul 08, 2006 12:57 pm
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BJs Projected Opening Wknd:

Fri: 54.95m

Sat: 54.00m -1.5%

Sun: 45.30m -16%

Wknd: 154.25m

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Sat Jul 08, 2006 1:01 pm
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Well color me amazed. I knever would have guessed it. after learning from a few crowds at my theater, still havent seen it yet, I was thinking 45 million. But this is absolutely amazing, this is like The Lost World beating Batman Forever. If you look at it however, each record breaker was close to 20 million higher, so this makes sense.

Lost world beat Batman by 22 million/ Harry Potter beat Lost World by 18 million, Spiderman over Harry by 24 million. I have no idea what to expect for the weekend, except that it will be frontloaded, that much is dam sure. Thanks to midnight numbers, I can see it dropping around 25% today or about 14 million. Solid 40 million second day. Give it another 35% drop and were looking at another 14 million drop to 26 million. Now given this is absolute extremes, I think it will hold a little better, but even with that it will give us a new Record of 121 million. :shades:

Superman is disappointing, its now only going to be around 2-3 million ahead of my pace to break 200 million. It needs to hold better, or rise rediculously on Saturday, to not hit a 55%+

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Sat Jul 08, 2006 1:03 pm
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Snrub wrote:
Can someone list the top ten with week-to-week drops?


SR -56.5%
Prada -48% (BOM), -55.4% (SBD)
Click -34.5%
Cars -28%
Nacho -41%
Lake -37%
F&F3 -41%
Waist -43%
BU -41%
DVC -37%
XM3 -50%


Sat Jul 08, 2006 1:04 pm
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1.55m
2.48.4m -12%
39.68m -18

TOT:143.08m

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Sat Jul 08, 2006 1:04 pm
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Magnus wrote:
Its huge, but it only stood for 4 years because most of the films that would have broken its record were released on non-Fridays.


Over the last several years you cant dismiss the "must see" opening weekend factor. And the margins just keep grow each year. Usually followed by big drops in the upcoming weeks. This wasnt so much a factor 10 years ago and before.

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Sat Jul 08, 2006 1:04 pm
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Thegun wrote:
Well color me amazed. I knever would have guessed it. after learning from a few crowds at my theater, still havent seen it yet, I was thinking 45 million. But this is absolutely amazing, this is like The Lost World beating Batman Forever. If you look at it however, each record breaker was close to 20 million higher, so this makes sense.

Lost world beat Batman by 22 million/ Harry Potter beat Lost World by 18 million, Spiderman over Harry by 24 million. I have no idea what to expect for the weekend, except that it will be frontloaded, that much is dam sure. Thanks to midnight numbers, I can see it dropping around 25% today or about 14 million. Solid 40 million second day. Give it another 35% drop and were looking at another 14 million drop to 26 million. Now given this is absolute extremes, I think it will hold a little better, but even with that it will give us a new Record of 121 million. :shades:

Superman is disappointing, its now only going to be around 2-3 million ahead of my pace to break 200 million. It needs to hold better, or rise rediculously on Saturday, to not hit a 55%+


This late in the summer movies don't drop 35% on Sunday. 20% at most.

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Sat Jul 08, 2006 1:04 pm
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PS, BOM has superman at 7.1 a rise of 33%. I still think it might hit 24-25 million if thats the best estimate.

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Sat Jul 08, 2006 1:05 pm
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Thegun wrote:
Well color me amazed. I knever would have guessed it. after learning from a few crowds at my theater, still havent seen it yet, I was thinking 45 million. But this is absolutely amazing, this is like The Lost World beating Batman Forever. If you look at it however, each record breaker was close to 20 million higher, so this makes sense.

Lost world beat Batman by 22 million/ Harry Potter beat Lost World by 18 million, Spiderman over Harry by 24 million. I have no idea what to expect for the weekend, except that it will be frontloaded, that much is dam sure. Thanks to midnight numbers, I can see it dropping around 25% today or about 14 million. Solid 40 million second day. Give it another 35% drop and were looking at another 14 million drop to 26 million. Now given this is absolute extremes, I think it will hold a little better, but even with that it will give us a new Record of 121 million. :shades:

Superman is disappointing, its now only going to be around 2-3 million ahead of my pace to break 200 million. It needs to hold better, or rise rediculously on Saturday, to not hit a 55%+


Nah, even with X3's low multiplicator (2.28) it would still be $126.5m ($55.5m x 2.28 = $126.5m)


Sat Jul 08, 2006 1:07 pm
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DIB2 wrote:
1.55m
2.48.4m -12%
39.68m -18

TOT:143.08m


that beats spiderman 2's july opening weekend by 54.924m':happy:'

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Sat Jul 08, 2006 1:07 pm
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Thegun wrote:
PS, BOM has superman at 7.1 a rise of 33%. I still think it might hit 24-25 million if thats the best estimate.


Unlikely. I think $23 million is really the best case scenario.

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Sat Jul 08, 2006 1:10 pm
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The Dark Shape wrote:
I'd give DP07 props if he didn't go completely bat-shit crazy yesterday.


Blah, that was all the fun. This was my most anticipated BO number of all-time. What do you expect. :tongue:


Sat Jul 08, 2006 1:21 pm
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Do you hear that?? That is the sound of Disney execs praising on their knees to the lord of the summer blockbuster, Jerry Bruckheimer. And that is also the sound of a 4th Pirates getting the green light as both Bruckheimer and Depp want to continue to make more of them.

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Sat Jul 08, 2006 1:23 pm
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Good for Pirates. Too bad it was nothing more than a soulless cash-grab by Disney and a big bore of a movie.


Sat Jul 08, 2006 1:23 pm
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El_Masked_fuerte_grande wrote:
Nebs wrote:
Anyway. Plan B is now in effect.

It will drop heavily on saturday.

yes it will, I expect a15%-18% drop today
Plan b is in effect already
Congrats to dp07 who went over 135mOW


I'm running out of the alphabet. :tongue:


Sat Jul 08, 2006 1:24 pm
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Positive Jon wrote:
neo_wolf wrote:
Thats incredible for pirates 2.

fri:55.5
sat:44.4
sun:33.3
133.2


Its not dropping over 15% on Sunday.

You mean sat right?

Dropping 15% for a huge opening day iswvery likely.If it drops like 15% on saturday. Its sunday drop would be bigger percent wise than the typical movie


Sat Jul 08, 2006 1:25 pm
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DP07 wrote:
The Dark Shape wrote:
I'd give DP07 props if he didn't go completely bat-shit crazy yesterday.


Blah, that was all the fun. This was my most anticipated BO number of all-time. What do you expect. :tongue:


You seriously did expect $65 million or so, though. So how do you explain that it didn't do that?

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Last edited by Dr. Lecter on Sat Jul 08, 2006 1:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Sat Jul 08, 2006 1:27 pm
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It's gonna drop about 25% on Saturday, mark my words... :sweat:

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Sat Jul 08, 2006 1:27 pm
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