Xiayun what have you seen that warrants a 125 million dollar opening? If memory serves you live int eh Bay area like me. So I am very interested in hearing what you see. Because if ti wasn't for this board I really would not know Pirates was coming out this week. I don't watch that much TV outside of Cable, but I have yet to even see one poster in the BART stations, I see one hangin up in the Metreon and it is advertised on the rotating lighted billboard out front, I see some small posters at the AMC Van Ness..

I don't know I just can't see the hype for 125 million.

well we are going to learn either one of these two lessons about the boxoffice....


1. Without a massive fanbase a movie cannot open very very huge on its opening weekend.

2. NEVER UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF THE GENERAL AUDIENCE!!

Let's see, best received Super Bowl commercial for a non-comedy in ad-meter ratings ever. And it wasn't even that impressive of a spot, so it was all the original's popularity.

-Highest ranked blockbuster release ever at yahoo movies besides SW, ESB, FOTR, and ROTK (all of which have fanboys to increase the ratings unlike this one).
-Every demographic. Wider appeal then anything ever made I'd say.
-150,000 ratings at yahoo. Sequels tend to have a similar number of ratings (at least 80%). It will have 180,000 by DVD, so POTC should have 140,000 minimum. This will have a max ratio of 350, so 400m minimum. 170,000 and 320 are more realisti
-Best tracking ever, better then Sith (which would have opened with 141m), Reloaded (which would have opened with 123m), and SM2 (which would have been about 128m). It's going to get 135m mimimum opening weekend. With the wide appeal I think many will tag along with others and beat the tracking (it won't just be driven by fanboys who can power tracking with "first choice" rankings).
-98% rated it very good or excellent in studio polls which is almost unheard of. And it did that without appealing to a niche audience. It had to keep everyone happy.
-Better WOM and wider appeal then Shrek (which was not some fluke).
-A at Cinemascore (less then 2 non-family films a year tend to get that). Many are sequels (which have fanboys giving them easy "A+"s.
-Great rating at Netflix, 4.2 (even though it isn't the type to do well there). Oscar pics do better there then in theaters. I made a list of netflix ratings based on number of reviews and the rating to judge overall popularity. It was 2nd behind Forrest Gump. I'll find that and post it soon.

Blah, every time I calculate any data or do any comparision of this kind this ranks as high as anything in terms of overall popularity. Is all the data wrong?

This is the big one.

Shrek 2 is all general audiences. Hell, I think even the first Spider-Man was pretty much general audiences, too. It's not like either was frontloaded.

Shrek 2 and Spiderman taught us lesson #2

By movie of the decade, do you mean 1996-2006? Oh, Titanic...

2000-2009

SM 3 and Shrek 3 could challenge it....Other then that...I agree

Not a chance, Pirates OWNs

550m+

Shrek 3? I don't see it passing Shrek 2.

Not one sell out in the SF bay area yet. Plenty of tickets left in AMC Van Ness, Metreon, and UA stonestown according to the Employees there. Sith had at least sold out some of the Midnight shows by this point. It is doing better then SR and is doing well.

No one has mentioned going to see it at the clinic I volunteer at(where people from all walks of life go in and out on a daily basis, movies is a subject we bring up as a way to help calm people down during counseling)...X3 had a few people mentioning they would see it at least.

So while what you posted above may be true and I have no doubt that the movie will open big. Even though what i have posted is not 100% indicative of the weekend to me it does not point to a record breaking weekend.

I don't see how you can compare presales to Sith given that they are driven by fanboys. We all know Sith will beat it midnight be quite a bit, but that doesn't mean anything about the weekend.



That's anecdotal.

SITH WOULD HAVE GOTTEN LIKE 135-140 million on its weekend if it opened on Friday! WAY BEYOND anything Pirates will get.

I think Pirates has way more then enough to increase over x-men 3 to about 106 million.

You are talking about a massive opening weekend with record breaking numbers. In order for it to do so it requires that all pistons fire. The fanboy rush, and the general audience. It is a measure of hype as well. You are talking about how well it tracks but it has to materialize in sales. If their is as much as hype as you say then it should be sellign as well if not better then comparible movies.

As to the anecdotal part. I wouldn't base a whole prediction on it. But from my experience it has been a fairly reliable sense of how a movie is doing. We have tons of people come into the clinic and they do discuss such thing(equivelent of water cooler talk)


What i am seeing on this board is completely rediculous. a 90 million dollar opening is fantastic. but for a 164 million dollar opening weekend pretty much every seat in every major urban movie theater has to be sold out. Could it happen yes in theory will it happen no. the ceiling for the opening on this film is going to be around 110 but I find that unlikely too.

I think Pirates will be better recieved then X3. I am not expecting a fan boy rush to go see it though. SO I don't think the numbers are going to be shattering. I think X3 will edge out PoTC2 for the OW but PoTC2 will gross more in the 5 day.

Except it isn't a comparible movie. It's the general audience rather then the fanboys who matter. Sith's 17m at midnight might be huge, but it was less then 5% of the total even for that movie. How many sell outs did Shrek 2 have at this point? It doesn't need a fanboy rush, nothing does if it has the general audience.



That would put it near the original's gross. After all the WOM and increased popularity since it hit DVD you really don't think it will gain on that?

its the tracking that keeping me near 106 million, and many people near 115 million.
well spiderman never had pre-sell outs and such but everyone just rushed to the theater opening weekend and watched it and the same with shrek 2. I think Pirates can pull that off.

Tracking

MTC:
PIRATES: 118 MILLION
SUPERMAN: 25.032 MILLION (Down 52%)

RS: 116 MILLION (+5)

Yup I don't expect much of an increase in gross from the original. I think that it could realisticaly go from 280-340 depending on WoM. You know this is still a BO slump here. It costs 10 dollars to go to a movie theater and a bunch more for popcorn, I think there is a weariness wiht audience about Blockbusters now especially this year espiecally this year with MI3,DVC, SR, X3, and even Cars underwhelming. It can help a movie out sometimes as I believed it did with Sith...but it can also fatigue audiences as well to a more of a wait and see approach. WIth DVD's coming out so shortly after, if people wait to long they may just wait for the disc again.

I am not sure about Spiderman but as far as your prediction of 106 I don't think it is crazy and I don't think it requires the type of UBER hype that a 120+ film would require.

Spiderman here in my area was a movie that had all its hype build up in the last week or so.

106 million is a solid strong weekend and will give it decent enough legs to get to 320 million.

I think 90 million is solid opening. I think 106 is very attainable. It could get 110 and romp its way to 350 as well. The one thing I am doing is predicting a good multiplier, though I expect it to be more frontloaded then the Original. I expect the audience will support smaller drops.

BTW for the Record I completely botched my spiderman prediction... I had it pegged for 70 million which at the time was awesome! LOL

90 million with great legs is nice too.

However i see a 100 million opener, and i don't see tracking being off by more then 10 million. They perdicted Superman dead 85 million 5-day.

I wasn't into the boxoffice when Spiderman opened.

tracking was dead on with superman.

thats scary