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 July 7-9 Predictions 
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Cream of the Crop

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Killuminati510 wrote:
Tracking has it at over 110m


really? well that's certainly something to get excited about then!!

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Sat Jul 01, 2006 3:57 pm
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The tracking is said to be at a level that we've never seen. All four quadrants (Male under 25, Male over 25, Female under 25, Female over 25) have over 70% definite interest in seeing the film.

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Sat Jul 01, 2006 4:01 pm
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Look at all the high predictions for Pirates, I love it! Looks like you guys have finally come to your senses.

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Highest combination of definate interest and first choice ever recorded. In other words it tracking better then anything ever has been, with the openings we have seen such as ROTS I think that puts it at least over 140m.


Sat Jul 01, 2006 4:02 pm
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Also, notfabio reported Friday night that Pirates' pre-sale numbers were already on par with what Spider-Man had on the Sunday night before its release. One could argue people are doing more advance purchase now than 4 years ago, but that's still very impressive.

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Sat Jul 01, 2006 5:00 pm
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xiayun wrote:
Also, notfabio reported Friday night that Pirates' pre-sale numbers were already on par with what Spider-Man had on the Sunday night before its release. One could argue people are doing more advance purchase now than 4 years ago, but that's still very impressive.


Spider-Man 1 or 2?

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Sat Jul 01, 2006 5:50 pm
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Extraordinary

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Ghostooze wrote:
xiayun wrote:
Also, notfabio reported Friday night that Pirates' pre-sale numbers were already on par with what Spider-Man had on the Sunday night before its release. One could argue people are doing more advance purchase now than 4 years ago, but that's still very impressive.


Spider-Man 1 or 2?


1, I believe.

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Sat Jul 01, 2006 5:51 pm
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Pirates 2 will set the new 3-day weekend record, eclipsing Spider-Man. Period.

All other films will have a hefty fall.

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Sat Jul 01, 2006 5:55 pm
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I will love to see the perdictions of the websites on this film. I see 106 million and if it gets that much it will become a monster at the boxoffice anways and will be a superduper mega hit and Disney will be jumping in joy.

Over 17 million people need to come out to see pirates to break Spideys record and 19 million to beat the adjusted 130 million record.

Spiderman did not have massive internet hype and so doesn't this film so i think this has a strong chance at an 100 million weeked and now that Superman will get around 25 million in its 2nd weekend it faces hardly any competition.

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lol i have to say i love how this will break the record and we could all be dissapointed.


Sat Jul 01, 2006 6:17 pm
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okay imo people perdicting over 125 million are just insane or just having fun.

Perdictions for this are good at 100-120 million.

If it breaks Spideys record imagine the Media hype on the film which would drive even more people to see it like it did to me in 2002. Spiderman looked interestiung but when it get 114 million i was like holy shit and said this film must be great and i wacthed it and it was good. Also it was the film that made me interested in the boxoffice.

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Sat Jul 01, 2006 6:22 pm
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Post It reached SUPERMAN's advance sales ahead of pace...
xiayun wrote:
Also, notfabio reported Friday night that Pirates' pre-sale numbers were already on par with what Spider-Man had on the Sunday night before its release. One could argue people are doing more advance purchase now than 4 years ago, but that's still very impressive.



Not Spider-man's though I don't blame your eyes glazing over that since I posted SPRMN at 12:10am ;). Actually I don't have records going back that far since I wasn't actively looking at those numbers back in the olden days. :)

Also, advance ticketing really wasn't anywhere near as big then as it is now, so those numbers wouldn't be helpful
anyway.

SPRMN was at just over 200 for its pre-open on Monday night at close for the Tuesday. I wouldn't be shocked if it reaches 200 by the end of tonight for Thursday's pre-open.

At this point I'm expecting at least 7 million for the pre-open.


Sat Jul 01, 2006 6:24 pm
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i just hope it doesnt drop hard. then the media will flip out. "pirtates down 60% for second straight wekend, 3rd film seems doomed".


Sat Jul 01, 2006 6:24 pm
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not really a opening near 110 million will make it gross 300 million unless it falls +50% each weekend.

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Sat Jul 01, 2006 6:27 pm
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POTC 2- 145 Million

SMR- 31 Million


Sun Jul 02, 2006 7:14 am
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if it gets 100 million its all good in my books because then it will have better legs.

I think disney would be exicted with an 100 million weekend.

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Sun Jul 02, 2006 10:35 am
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POTC Deux - $100m
Superman - $27m

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Sun Jul 02, 2006 3:36 pm
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Mannyisthebest wrote:
okay imo people perdicting over 125 million are just insane or just having fun.

Perdictions for this are good at 100-120 million.

If it breaks Spideys record imagine the Media hype on the film which would drive even more people to see it like it did to me in 2002. Spiderman looked interestiung but when it get 114 million i was like holy shit and said this film must be great and i wacthed it and it was good. Also it was the film that made me interested in the boxoffice.



Agreed. Is the hype as big as Superman 2 and Shrek 2? Perhaps but then they didn't have to go up against Superman's 2nd weekend. Any dent in boxoffice earnings is significant when you get in the $100-$130m range because that's where the record holders are. A difference of $2 million could mean getting dropped 2 spots on the all-time list.


My prediction stands: $100 m for the 3 day

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Sun Jul 02, 2006 3:38 pm
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Actually, due to superman dissapointing many people including myself have increased pur perdictions. I went from 95 million then to 102 million and now at 106 million. Its possibile to get 110 million as well because almost every single teenager i meet wants to see this film.
Spiderman didn't have a lot of early hype however in the last week or so it was everywhere and it was in everyones to go watch list. Pirates has a lot of fans in the general public like Spiderman 1 did and Shrek 2 did and that should give it a spiderman style opening. So i see 106 million.

Well its more hyped then x-men 3 and hyped like shrek 2 so it will get over 100 million, but the point is how high can it go over 100 million. 100 million is where its expected to get but it can go all to up to spideys record.


Nevertheless it can win the crown of the year domestically but not overseas as 500 million is way to much for this film to get, however due to a large domestic run it can beat out DVC total of 725 million.

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pirates 2-140
superman - 25 million
prada-10 million


Sun Jul 02, 2006 4:26 pm
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i can see 115 million but what suggests 140 million?

I know it is possibile as spiderman got 130 million (adjusted) in 3600 theaters and this will likely get 4000+ and even the record.

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Sun Jul 02, 2006 4:31 pm
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58 million openng day tracking.


Sun Jul 02, 2006 4:51 pm
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excel wrote:
pirates 2-140
superman - 25 million
prada-10 million


Prada dropping more then Superman = Impossible


Sun Jul 02, 2006 4:51 pm
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excel wrote:
58 million openng day tracking.


just your predictions or according to what source?


Sun Jul 02, 2006 4:55 pm
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excel where did you get that from??

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