Like you said, it very well could be (the 1st definitely isn't untoppable in terms of quality), but the novelty of the first can't be beaten. Whatever happens, POTC2 is "just" more of the same.

This has a 0.05% shot at $500m.

bleh, sequals didnt make money then, people are willing to come back for more of the same now

congrats, you have officialy joined the dark side

on the 7th Im going to wish Superman a happy death as the film fails to increase over 30% because of Pirates mammoth size opening day

I think the ceiling is $450 million. I just can't see it going beyond that point at all.

congrats, you are another to have officially joined the dark side

bleh, 500m+

Floor is 400m IMO with a ceiling of 650m.

You guys are crazy, absolutely crazy. The ceiling for this is 300 million and even that may be a little generous. No way does this even sniff 400 million and get 150 million opening like many are claiming.

Watch and see, doubter.

With the way its tracking, why the hell would the ceiling be <$300 million? Unless it's an absolutely horrendous film.

Definitely crazy folk. Though saying $300m ceiling is being generous is also a bit ignorant. 1st's gross and WOM as well as DVD sales and 2nd's tracking were/are just too good for that.

I think it'll make between $300m and $400m.

You guys are acting like 300 million is a cinch and that any movie could make that much. Here's some reasons why it WON'T make it to 300 million

1. The novelty of the whole concept will be worn out and even though it may be better than the first in terms of quality, the WOM will not be as great. Sequels are rarely ever recieved as well as the first film.

2. As much as this "club" may not like it, Superman Returns is a big film and will no doubt take a chunk out of POTC2

3. Only 2, 300 million grosser has improved on their predecessors, and those were of course the LOTR trilogy. Please don't even attempt to compare POTC to LOTR.

4. This may just be me but I really don't see this as a movie everyone has been DEMANDING for. ROTS, Spiderman 2, etc are movies people wanted sequels for. I just don't see the same thing for POTC.

5. I just don't see the buzz that everyone is talking about

6. Many of you are claiming that July is a weak month, besides POTC2. I highly disagree. Sure there may not be many breakout hits that get to 200 million, but there are a number of solid films that should get respectable grosses. These movies, too, will take chunks out of POTC2.

300 million is A LOT of money. If POTC2 can top out at 300 million, just 5 million behind the first POTC, it should be considered a huge sucess. Few sequels can retain that much of the first film's gross. This "club" seems to have as many fanatics as the LOTR did back in the BOM days. It's insane. You guys are acting like 300 million would be a dissapointment.

thos ear eaccurate reasons, but those are why it wont make 400. not 300.

What other 300m grosser with a sequel can PotC be compared to? Not Harry Potter, it had a huge established fanbase, broke the OW record at the time, and wasn't as well recieved as PotC. Not TPM or Spiderman, both were 400m grossers, a totally different game.

Shrek is a $300m grosser adjusted for inflation, look how that sequel turned out. . .

That's exactly my point it has never happened before and for a good reason. 300 million grossers are HUGE. Improving on a 300 million gross is EXTREMELY difficult and is really only possible when you have a huge built-in fanbase to begin with that keeps growing or the original movie was so well loved that it was even nominated for a bunch of oscars ala LOTR. There is only one precedent for a reason, and I really don't see how POTC is going to be be able to break 300 million. Movies these days are getting extremely frontloaded. If the huge fanbase is there as some of you claim, I don't see why it wouldn't behave like X3, with a huge opening and weak legs.

Shrek 2 was a phenomenon that I really don't think people expected. You can't just expect the same thing to happen to every other film, where the first film had great WOM.

This has been said about 100 times although the logic behind it is so poor that it seems pointless to correct it. There have only ever been 4 first sequels to movies that earned over 300m. One of 4 increased. All four originals were heavily hyped movies and in fact 3 broke the opening weekend record (Spider-man, Harry Potter, JP).

Let me put it this way: There has never been a first sequel not to increase at the BO from an original 300m+ blockbuster that didn't break the opening weekend record.

In other words, there is nothing else to compare it to besides LOTR. Plus, POTC has much more going for it such as better WOM (I'd argue), wider demographics, and the lack of an initial fanbase.

See I think it's just the opposite. If the movie already has a huge fanbase like Spiderman or Harry Potter there is no room for it to grow between the movies. With Shrek and Pirates, the entire fanbase is built by the first movie, grows on DVD, and the sequel increases. That's how I see it anyway.

Yes, you can.

We should have expected Shrek 2. We didn't because we didn't understand why it would happen. Don't make the same mistake twice.

Go outside.

That's exactly what happens.