Actually, 2003 has one of the weakest July 4th weekend's of this Century... plus there were several other weekends that were rather week for the summer period, and also the last two week of April were weak, so we should gain more ground there.
I think we will be able to keep pace with the summer of 2003, and September and December of that year were quite weak as well, so we should keep the pace throughout the year...

06 is on a roll, I expect 02 to fall behind by august first year with 1.5b tickets sold OH YEAH! ! !

Whoops, don't tell 2002, 2003, and 2004 that.

make that 1.6b

As much as I respect your tastes, Dolce. . .

I guess this means United 93 is a guarenteed hit!

We were up another 18 million this weekend, and are now firmly ahead of 2005.
Things should only get better in the next three weeks, as RV and United 93 will keep the momentum next weekend, before MI3 explodes on the first weekend of May... from there we have Posiedon, Da Vinci, Hedge and X3! Oh my!

I have a feeling that this summer will not only outgross last year, but it might be one of the biggest summer's ever.

At least on paper, there is a lot of potential. MI3, X3, Da Vinci, Pirates, Superman and Cars will all almost undoubtably pass 200$ million, with the last 4 all having potential at 300 million.
Over the Hedge has an outside chance to make it to 200 as well.

They'll be surrounded by other strong pics in the market that all have potential at 100 million + such as Click, The Break Up, Miami Vice, World Trade Centre, The Fast and the Furious 3, Posiedon, You, Me and Dupree, the Ant Bully, Talladega Nights...

A big summer indeed!

With the weak April 2006 has definitely been gaining ground, but after May 5th and 12th 2006 should be firmly in the dust. Hell even the 19th should be fine, as I think Da Vinci Code and Over the Hedge combined (along with the strong holdovers) will handily beat Star Wars and what little it had around it.

Summer '03 had a couple disappointments, but even the so-called disappointments made 100m+ (Hulk, CA2, T3).

Pirates, Matrix 2, X2, Nemo, Bruce Almighty, The Italian Job, Bad Boys 2, Seabiscuit, Freaky Friday, American Wedding, Daddy Day Care, Legally Blond 2, 2F2F, S.W.A.T., Spy Kids 3D, League of Extraordinary Gentlemen, and Freddy vs. Jason more than made up for it.

03's summer was the biggest one at that point (04's passed it).

So how painful of a hit did 2006 total cume take compared to 2005 this weekend?

06 is on a roll, a roll that wont be stoped intill every other year is smashed

I made an update with the newest numbers according to BOM

Top 12 Totals (in millions)

2005 2006 change

Jan 6-8 97.7 106 +9%

Jan 13-15 117.8 102 - 13.7%

Jan 20-22 83 94.1 + 13.3%

Jan 27-29 104.4 100.1 - 4.2%

Feb 3-5 87.7 81.8 - 6.8%

Feb 10-12 103.6 102 - 1%

Feb 17-19 115.8 110.7 - 4.6%

Feb 24-26 104.4 100. 3 -4%

Mar 3-5 109.1 83.1

Mar 10-12 103.4 93.3

Mar 17-19 105.3 92.7

Mar 24-26 89.4 97.8

Mar 31- Apr 2 97.6 132.1

Apr 7-9 79 102.8

Apr 14-16 74.1 109.9

Apr 21-23 82.3 100.2

Apr 28-30 80.1 90.2

Total so far 1634.7 1699.1

May 5-7 78.5

May 12-14 94.5

May 19-21 157.6

May 26-28 178.2

June 2-4 126.9

June 9-11 138.1

June 16-18 129.6

June 23-25 117.7

June 30- July 2 133.7

July 7-9 139.5

July 14-16 155.7

July 21-23 129.2

July 28-30 112

Aug 4-6 103

Aug 11-13 104.7

Aug 18-20 98.8

Aug 25-27 83.1

Sept 1-3 78.1

Sept 8-10 73.5

Sept 15-17 70.6

Sept 22-24 87.9

Sept 29-1 75.3

Oct 6-8 88.2

Oct 13-15 71.6

Oct 20-22 70.2

Oct 27-29 87

Nov 3-5 119.6

Nov 10-12 111.3

Nov 17-19 172.3

Nov 24-26 149.5

Dec 1-3 76.2

Dec 8-10 115.7

Dec 15-17 122.5

Dec 22-24 100.7

Dec 29-31 131.0

Despite M:I-3's underwhelming opening weekend, the total for the weekend barely reached $100 million, but as of today, 2006 is +6.1% ahead of 2005. Not bad.

14.6% down from last year's top 10 and 23% down from 2004. NOT what we need, considering that May 2006 was supposed to be a slam dunk to top May 2005.

May: Slight edge to 2006

June/Aug: 2006 has the edge

July: About even between the years. (POTC 2/Superman will be big, but alot of the other big July films will disappoint)

Sept/Dec: Giving the edge to 2005.

Oct: 2006

We need a strong May finish to beat last year, because Oct/May are very imp times to beat 2005.

Ouch. Last weekend sucked, there is not way of spinning that....
However, I think we will get back on track this weekend and keep the momentum for the rest of the summer.... my biggest worry right now is that early reviews suggest that both Da Vinci and X3 are sub-par. If audiences agree, it might sour the summer moviegoing experience for many, in which case we might see disappointment after disappointment. Hopefully, that won't happen.

Anyhow, this is how I see this upcoming weekend going.

Da Vinci -- 70 million
Over the Hedge -- 40 million
MI3 -- 12 million
Posiedon -- 12 million
RV -- 6 million
See no Evil -- 6 million
Just my luck -- 3.5 million

the bottom 3 will make around 7 million combined (whichever films they happen to be)

That's a total of 156.5 million, about a million below last year.
While that doesn't sound great, it's actually fantastic considering we are going up against the opening of Star Wars last year.
And if Da Vinci surprises, we might even beat it.

What this weekend is really doing (hopefully) is setting up a record breaking Memorial Day weekend.
Da Vinci (as long as it doesn't totally suck) should hold well since it is an adult film and they will wait till the holiday weekend to see it.
Over the Hedge will hold well because it is a family comedy over Memorial Day weekend. (and is apparently good)
And ofcrouse x3 should open at about 100 million for the four days..

225 is the 4 days weekend from last year.. we should match or slightly surpass it.
After that weekend, I think we will be up for a few weeks, or hopefully the rest of the summer..
June was increadibly weak last year.

I'm starting to think the Break up has a shot at a 30 million+ opening, but right now I've got it pegged at about 25.
I'm kinda weary that there isn't another pic opening up this weekend (last year had 3), but X3 should hold for at least 30 million, and Da Vinci and Hedge should both come close to 20 million, so I think we will still surpass last year.

The second weekend of June is interesting. Obviously Cars is going to rule it, and hopefully can beat the opening of Mr. and Mrs. Smith last year (though I don't expect Finding Nemo numbers...)
What will be interesting to see is if the Omen can perform, especially consideing it's bizarre tuesday open.
A prairie home campanion looks like a 5million opener to me, though it could have legs..

The next week we have a bunch of Junk.
Fast and the Furious 3 will be lucky to break 20 million
The lake house will be lucky for 15 million.
Nacho Libre is the real question mark. It could do anywhere between 10-20 million in my opinion.

The next weekend is looking a little better. Good old reliable Sandler is back at it again.
I think his star has lost some of it's luster as of late, but he's still good for a 30 million plus open.
Garfield will do decent. 15-20 million open.
Waist Deep will get about 10 million.

two rather shit weekend, but that's ok, cause they don't have much to go up against from last year..

And ofcourse, the final weekend we have Superman returns. I won't lie, I'm kinda worried about this one.
It doesn't even have the buzz that Batman Begins did last year. But hopefully we'll have a solid performer.

July should be great. We are going up against pretty weak numbers.. the last weekend of july totaled 111 million. very low for a summer weekend. ofcourse, that is the weekend that stealth bombed, with the island bombing the weekend before.. Hopefully we dont have a repeat of that this year!

I feel that the studios f-ed up on a lot of release dates this summer.
Obviously, MI3 should have been kept for July. Posiedon as well.

Anyhow, I also think Superman is wrong for the July 4th weekend.
I think that it and Pirates should have swapped.
We'll see whether or not I am right

Bryan, from your analysis and my own thoughts - I think we can agree that summer 06 isnt looking so rosy anymore. Dont forget - 06 will lose $50m in just one day on Thursday due to Star Wars opening last year. Then Superman is going to tank.

However - I think Click will double your expected opening and Cars should be stronger too. Regardless of reviews Da Vinci should have atleast 2 good weekends and offcourse X Men will have a mega Memorial weekend. I guess we'll see!

It sucks, we've had a great weekend, but we weren't able to top last year's top 10. Bummer.

-3%

On the plus side, we're 87% ahead of last week's top 10.

I'm not sure if we can have the Mad/Yard combo get outdone by Xmen 3, but it'll be close.

Still 4.7% ahead of last year, overall.

Im cheering for 2005 to kick 2006s ass all the way back to 1992

I'm really starting to like July and early August for this year.. I was worried about it a few months back, but after seeing trailers for many of the movies opening, I think that there is something offered for everyone, and with both The Island and Stealth disappointing last year, I think we will make up a lot of ground in late July/early August

Last week actually wasnt a loss for 2006 - it actually was even.

http://www.entdata.com/charts/boanalysis.html

Though the summer is down on last year so far and it will prob get worse until Cars kicks in.

I still think its going to be close. Late July/August however could sway things the way of 06 though

If crowd reports and the yahoo thread are any indication, it looks like this weekend should easily beat last year's Memorial Day weekend, even though it looks like Da Vinci is heading for a big drop.

Yes this week should be even or slightly up and next week maybe slightly down.

So Da Vinci might not pass 200 mil. Unbelievable, considering all the uber buzz leading up to the release. It won't surpass National Treasure by more than 20-30 mil...

Oh well, at least it's a monster WW hit.

Considering it'll stand at $145 million after 11 days, I'd say chances are extremely slim that it won't pass $200 million. By the end of the third weekend, it'll be at $168-170 million.

Plus that fact that it could stabalize over the rest of the weekend.. It is an adult aud, and most worked still yesterday... they might wait fir the rest of the weekend.. it couls still pull off 55% for the weekend (3-day)