BINGO!

True. And the last two weekends of April look good too - Sentinal, American Dreamz, United 93 etc.

"Super" summer for the silver screen

By Paul R. La Monica, CNNMoney.com senior writer
March 31, 2006: 3:28 PM EST


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - Hollywood hit a well-documented rough patch last year, with annual box office receipts declining for the first time since 1991. But so far in 2006, there's some good news.

According to figures from Exhibitor Relations Co., a movie industry research firm, box office grosses in the U.S. are up -- albeit less than 1 percent -- through March 26.


Let's not go to the movies: With box office sales down, shares of movie theater owners Carmike and Regal have slumped.

The bad news, however, is that the box office bump is due entirely to ticket price increases as opposed to more people actually wanting to see movies; attendance is down 2.2 percent from a year ago. In fact, the number of ticket sales has declined for the past three years straight according to Box Office Mojo, another movie industry research firm.

High hopes
So, with the big studios ready to start unleashing the summer blockbusters in a little more than a month from now – "Mission: Impossible III" opens on May 5 – will there be enough hit flicks to get people to swarm back to the multiplexes and reverse the slide of the past few years?

Hopes are high (then again they always are in Tinseltown) for a box office and attendance upswing this year. And there is reason to think that this summer could be a bonanza for Hollywood.

Sony (Research) appears to have a surefire hit on its hands with the film version of the runaway best selling novel, "The Da Vinci Code." Walt Disney (Research) hopes to replicate the success it had in 2003, when it released Pixar's "Finding Nemo" and the first "Pirates of the Caribbean" movie, with the latest Pixar film "Cars" and the sequel to "Pirates."

Other sequels that could be fan favorites are "X-Men: The Last Stand" from News Corp.'s (Research) Fox and the long-awaited "Superman Returns" from Time Warner's (Research) Warner Bros. studio. (Time Warner also owns CNNMoney.com.)

"This summer should beat last summer. The lineup is better. Studios are returning to their bread and butter, which are sequels. Last summer there were a lot of remakes that didn't excite audiences," said Gitesh Pandya, editor of BoxOfficeGuru.com, another movie industry research firm.

There is the potential for some sleeper hits as well.

Paul Dergarabedian, president of Exhibitor Relations Co, said one such contender is "Snakes on a Plane," a movie that's exactly what you'd expect it to be about. Samuel L. Jackson stars as a passenger on a plane full of deadly snakes. (We are not making this up.) The movie, to be released by Time Warner's New Line studio, has already attracted a lot of buzz on various movie blogs.

He said another wildcard is Mel Gibson's new movie. His follow-up to "The Passion of the Christ" is another film that, at first blush, doesn't seem like blockbuster material. It is called "Apocalypto" and is being billed as an action-adventure film about the end of the Mayan empire. Like "Passion" it will feature subtitles; the cast of "Apocalypto" will be speaking in a Mayan dialect known as Yucatec.

Pandya said "Click," a comedy starring Adam Sandler about a guy who discovers a remote control that allows him to fast forward and rewind to certain times in his life, should stand out among all the big action movies.

Dergarabedian added that "Lady in the Water," the latest film from M. Night Shyamalan, who wrote and directed "The Sixth Sense" and "Signs," could be a hit. But Shyamalan's last movie, "The Village" did not live up to expectations.

Finally, he said it will be interesting to see if audiences are ready to see movies about the September 11 terrorist attacks. Two will come out this year. "United 93," about the flight that crashed in Pennsylvania, is due out in late April and the Oliver Stone-directed "World Trade Center' will be released in August.

Summer's promise
With all that in mind, Marla Backer, a media and entertainment analyst with Soleil -- Research Associates, an independent research firm, wrote in a report Friday that she thinks box office grosses from May through early August should be up 12 percent to 15 percent from the same period last year.

Still, if you rewind to this time last year, it was hard to imagine how the summer of 2005 could disappoint. After all, there was the last installment of the "Star Wars" saga due out, as well as "War of the Worlds" and "Batman Begins" to look forward to. And to be sure, those three movies did fare well at the box office. There were some surprise smash hits as well such as "Wedding Crashers" and the documentary "March of the Penguins." But this wasn't enough to get people to make a beeline for the theaters.

Click here for a preview of this summer's hottest movies


"This summer looks very promising. But cautiously, we say every year that summer looks good," said Dergarabedian.

Industry experts have cited many reasons for the downturn in attendance. Rising prices for tickets and at the concession stand may alienate some moviegoers as do the growing number of commercials -- ads that you can't just skip with a TiVo -- that air before movies start.

There's also the fact that movies are increasingly being released to the DVD format more quickly...so many film fans are willing to wait and watch movies in the comfort of their own home instead of trekking to the local theater.

Younger people have more entertainment options these days -- they can listen to their iPods, chat away on MySpace and play games on their Xbox 360. And finally, some argue that a slew of mediocre movies are keeping people away from theaters.

But what is certain is that a box office recovery is sorely needed for Hollywood. It would be welcome news to the big media companies, most of which have seen their stock prices stagnate during the past year. It could also serve as a boost for publicly traded theater owners Regal Entertainment (Research) and Carmike Cinemas (Research), whose stocks are also in the doldrums.

If attendance does bounce back this summer, it could dispel the notion that the age of releasing movies to theaters is drawing to a close. If not, it could cause more concerns in Hollywood and on Wall Street.

"This is a key summer and year. You could call 2005 an anomaly, but if there is a similar slump this year then it's no longer the anomaly. It's the norm," said Dergarabedian.

Thank god for Ice Age 2!

We are going to be about 30 million ahead of this weekend last year, and it is only going to get better through April.

The top twelve should be over $140 million this weekend, or around 44% higher than last year.

And with that, Ice Age 2 looks to outgross all of them in its first weekend. Insane.

Still disapointed that Sin City couldnt power its way over 100m, meh.

I think we should still keep this a VS 2005 thread with mentions to the previous years aswell. As we always compare conecutive years - all the more important considering the so called slump last year. I still think we should still see that running table againt the last 4 years.

True. Rather than changing its title, let's start posting on a new thread regarding "2006 vs 2004". who will start it?

I think that this should a 06 vs. 2002 adjusted thread, that way we can watch 06 own up on the biggest BO year of all time I expect may-aug to pull in 40%-50% of this years BO total, around 4b-5b

We don't need another thread to track the same information. A '2004 vs. 2005 vs. 2006' thread, or a '2006 vs. other years' thread doesn't hurt.

For example, charts like this:

[table][row]Wkd.[col]2004[col]2005[col]2006[row]1[col color=#FFFF99]$120,162,055 [col]$97,716,367 [col]$105,915,970 [row]2[col]$91,011,472 [col color=#FFFF99]$117,791,185 [col]$101,977,645 [row]3[col color=#FFFF99]$95,097,742 [col]$82,964,899 [col]$94,112,272 [row]4[col]$82,461,857 [col color=#FFFF99]$104,449,103 [col]$100,149,964 [row]5[col]$73,408,189 [col color=#FFFF99]$87,739,607 [col]$81,750,867 [row]6[col]$91,024,844 [col color=#FFFF99]$103,645,650 [col]$102,081,659 [row]7[col]$105,193,824 [col color=#FFFF99]$115,843,406 [col]$110,670,456 [row]8[col]$74,540,440 [col color=#FFFF99]$104,410,129 [col]$100,333,996 [row]9[col color=#FFFF99]$139,698,537 [col]$109,130,561 [col]$83,109,129 [row]10[col color=#FFFF99]$131,390,731 [col]$103,443,530 [col]$93,343,314 [row]11[col]$104,140,551 [col color=#FFFF99]$105,343,897 [col]$92,699,628 [row]12[col color=#FFFF99]$108,314,065 [col]$89,392,004 [col]$97,802,598 [row]13[col]$108,197,926 [col]$97,570,886 [col color=#FFFF99]$140,000,000 [/table]

...or this:

[table][row]Year[col]Gross (in millions)[col]2006[col]2005[col]2004[col]2003[col]2002[row]2006[col]$2,016.10 [col]-[col]-0.30%[col]-5.60%[col]0.60%[col]-3.60%[row]2005[col]$2,022.80 [col]0.30%[col]-[col]-5.30%[col]1.00%[col]-3.30%[row]2004[col]$2,135.20 [col]5.90%[col]5.60%[col]-[col]6.60%[col]2.10%[row]2003[col]$2,003.50 [col]-0.60%[col]-1.00%[col]-6.20%[col]-[col]-4.20%[row]2002[col]$2,090.80 [col]3.70%[col]3.40%[col]-2.10%[col]4.40%[col]-[/table]

...is the only thing needed, really. More than one thread is wasting space.

136.5 million, up 39 million for the weekend!

If this is an early indication of the summer, it's going to be big!

Next weekend is going to be just as great! We have the Benchwarmers, Lucky Number Slevin, Take the Lead and Phat Girlz opening up, and ofcourse the second weekend of Ice Age.

The number to beat last year is 78 million. Easy.

1. Ice Age 2 -- 40 million
2. The Benchwarmers -- 15 million
3. Take the Lead -- 10 million
4. Inside Man -- 9 million
5. ATL -- 8 million
6. Lucky Number Slevin -- 7 million
7. Phat Girlz -- 5 million
8. Failure to Launch -- 4 million
9. V for Vandetta -- 4 million
10. She's the Man -- 3 million

Top 10 total: 105 million

And it gets better next weekend, when our numbers to beat are 74 million, and we have Scary Movie 4 opening, as well as The Wild. April will be huge!

Yes both those charts would be perfect for this thread. no need for more than one thread!

I think its safe to say 06 should defeat 05 by good margin for atleast the next 2 months!! Great stuff!!

with 105 million for the top 12 this weekend, we gained another 25 million on 2005.

And this weekend is going to absolutely blow away last years numbers.
Ok, so it's the long weekend. Many people have both Friday and Monday off of work. cheak.
Scary Movie 4,(now being heavily promoted) which is tracking above 50 million is opening. cheak.
The Wild and Thank You For Smoking both open as well. cheak.
We have some decent holdovers as well with Ice Age, Benchwarmers and Take the Lead. cheak.
The numbers to beat for the top 12 last year: 75 million. cheak.

We could be as much as 50 million above last year next weekend. At this point, we could be going into summer almost 10% ahead of last year.... what a difference a month makes!!!

Here is roughly how I see this upcoming weekend... (3-day)

1. Scary Movie 4 -- 45 million
2. Ice Age 2 -- 20 million
3. The Wild -- 18 million
4. The Benchwarmers -- 12 million
5. Take the Lead -- 8 million
6. Inside Man -- 6 million
7. Thank You For Smoking -- 6 million
8. Lucky Number Slevin -- 4 million
9. Failure to Launch -- 3 million
10. V for Vendetta -- 2 million
11. Phat Girlz -- 1.5 million
12. Friends With Money -- 1.5 million

That is a top 12 total of about 127 million... or 52 million above last years total of 74.5. WOW
Not to mention we'll have the holiday Monday to get some extra dollars. The Easter holiday last year was the last weekend of March...

I think the slump is going to continue year after year, as the movie theatre business is dying. People want to wait 2-3 months for the DVD now. Sorry to be doom and gloom, but let's be real here.

Well, we'll see... after the next two month, we'd have to have a disasterous summer to not beat last year (which let's face it, sucked from June - August)

"B.O. Reversal coming soon"

By Georg Szalai

NEW YORK -- Wall Street continues to discuss the outlook for the film business after a sluggish 2005, with Ladenburg, Thalmann analyst William Kidd in a research report Tuesday taking a more optimistic stance than some peers.

"A solid 2006 boxoffice should breathe new life into cinema" the headline for his report said.

Kidd predicts "an important reversal in 2006," namely "modest growth in boxoffice sales and attendance." He predicted the U.S. boxoffice would grow about 2% this year, with attendance inching up 1% and increased admissions prices doing the rest.

Kidd cited "a strong film slate including a slew of animation films" as key growth drivers this year, listing such upcoming film fare as "The Da Vinci Code," "Superman Returns" and "Mission: Impossible 3" as important summer tentpole releases.

While Standard & Poor's Equity Research Services last week cautioned investors about various secular trends that could hold movie studios back this year -- such as declining U.S. DVD sales and increased competition from newer forms of media, Kidd argued that film business trends always have been cyclical. "Film quality is among the most important near-term determinants of boxoffice revenue," he argued, pointing to recent data. "Industry critics have largely blamed the proliferation of home theater and movie substitutes, like the Internet, for the boxoffice ills, without taking into consideration other contributing factors."

Besides big live-action tentpole releases, Kidd counts eight known animation films for the current year, including "The Wild," "Over the Hedge," "Cars" and "The Ant Bully," up from just three major releases in 2005. "Given that children-friendly movies tend to do better than R-rated movies, and animation movies do even better, we are optimistic that 2006 will show both boxoffice growth and attendance growth," Kidd said.

The current second quarter, which the analyst estimates will see a 3.5% year-over-year boxoffice improvement, and the third quarter, for which he eyes a 2% gain, could be key periods to help reverse investor perceptions, as they would end seven consecutive quarters of boxoffice declines, Kidd said.

Given his expectations, the analyst started coverage Tuesday of exhibition giant Regal Entertainment Group with a $23 price target and a "buy" rating. "We think this story warrants attention," Kidd said. "Because if the industry is going to turn, it's going to do so over the next two to four months, creating a very short fuse."

Other entertainment stocks also could benefit, he said. After all, he argued: "A return to growth could suggest that the recent attendance/boxoffice weakness has been due in large part to the quality of films released and, to a lesser extent, what industry critics have been charging, structural issues."

Evil thought: Poseidon = Speed 2: Cruise Control. LOL.

While the weekend box office wasn't quite as powerful as I was first predicting, it still blew past last year. This year's Top 12 total was 110 million, compared to 74 million last year, or about 36 million ahead. That's pretty damn good!

As of today (with estimates), 2006 is 3.8% higher than 2005. 2006 is ahead of all the other years except 2004, which still had The Passion of the Christ to help it. Still, 2006 is doing great.

Est. Tickets Sold (as of April 16 each year)
2002: 412,500,000
2003: 377,200,000
2004: 404,600,000
2005: 364,200,000
2006: 377,900,000

Yeah, 2006 is ahead.

we're ahead of 2003 at this point as well....

A lead which will no doubt disappear. Summer 2003 was crazy.