Cars 1010, +36, B+
The Omen 3573, 409 today, +18, C+
A Prairie Home Companion 0 (Not Active)

3 more updates left.

PEACE, Mike.

I'm going to go with $14.66 m for Friday.

I dunno, maybe I'm not seeing things right, but it really looks like The Omen fell off the face of the earth. Decrease into friday perhaps? If not, I just can't see it mustering up a very good increase. It would have to have a very tiny (seemingly unrealistic) ratio for it to increase the normal 70+%-ish expected. Maybe xiayun can shed some light.

PEACE, Mike.

That looks really bad for The Omen. It might not top $4m with the projected ratio, though I guess it could be a little high. I think it'll land around Scott V's guess of $5m Friday.

I wouldn't look into The Omen's reviews too closey. It just confirms that people knew its opening day was Tuesday, so there won't be any bigger business due to misconception. Holdover reviews are bit odd to track, DP07 did that for awhile I believe.

It was done with ROTS.

The Incredibles had problem at Yahoo during its first day: Yahoo didn't open its grading until early in the afternoon, I think, so that could've lowered its ratio. I agree a ratio of 70 is possible to probable for Cars, but I don't see it being as low as 60, so $20m is definitely out. $15-17m right now, and may modify it slightly according to the final three hours.

The Omen indeed really slowed down. It may have a lower ratio than its opening Tuesday's. We've seen that with Wednesday releases (Spider-Man 2), so $5m is still possible, but that's the high end. Can't see it being close to $6m.

I don't really see more than $16 million in store for Cars, but definitely no less than $13.5 million. At the very worst, it'll open to $47-48 million, at the very very best to $57-59 million. Either way, a $190+ million total is assured.

I'm in full agreement. I really don't see any more than 1200 reviews for the day and a ratio around 75. I could see a realistic weekend total in the low 50's.

Cold.

That comment was definately NOT directed towards you. Seriously. I meant the passerbyers who like to look at the numbers and then try to make them fit their view, sometimes. You are one of the "originals" like xiayun, heh.

PEACE, Mike.

From a 47 m weekend, I don't think $190 m + is assured. That is a 4.04 multiplier, and with the double whammie of Superman in its 3rd weekend, POTC II in its 4th. Garfield should take away a little of the audience, but this doesn't have Nemo's box office environment, and the competition now is going to be quite high.

I'm thinking 1225. It's more frontloaded then most other CG animated movies without the frontpage, so that could confirm the ratio will be higher then OTH. Also obviously more adult then OTH (can't go lower then 20% non-family).

So I'm guessing about 15m.

Don't worry if it was about me. heh. I know I'm often too aggressive with my projections since the straightforward old analysis is boring for me, and I like to get creative with my projections. Looking for something different can be good in certain areas, but in sound, reasoned, analysis, often not so much.

Well, it wasn't directed at you, that's the truth.

And you guys think Cars will land at around 1200 reviews for today? I sure hope so, but I'm seeing about 1100 (average 30 reviews for the last 3 updates). Maybe I'm underestimating the last few hours (which would be nice).

I'm going to predict a 65-70 ratio. So whatever the total review count ends up being, divided by that = my prediction.

PEACE, Mike.

Meaning a weekend higher than $50m. Didn't you say that was impossible?

Looks right around 50m to me. I said over 55m was impossible. Just over 50m was best case.

All along, I've been viewing this as standard kids' fare, but there does seem to be some adult Nascar turnout (a little odd to me) which may keep this ratio at 80+.

Yeah, but c'mon, there are worlds between your "It'll be a huge disappointment!!! $41 million!" and a $50 million opening.

Worlds? There were many over 70m (half in that poll), and more then a couple over 80m. You, Xiayun, Zing, and a few others look to be closest I think.

And I don't use more then one exclamation point!

Cars 1024, +14, B+
The Omen 3579, 519 today, +6, C+
A Prairie Home Companion 0 (Not Active)

Or maybe less then 1,200. I think 14m-14.5m if that's the case.

BTW, someone must have miscalculated the Omen number at some point. I has more then that Friday.

Omen started at 3060, so that's 519 for the day.

Usually you use none, but I think that brought my point home more clearly. : )

No it didn't!!!!

J/K