True. Rather than changing its title, let's start posting on a new thread regarding "2006 vs 2004". who will start it?

I think that this should a 06 vs. 2002 adjusted thread, that way we can watch 06 own up on the biggest BO year of all time I expect may-aug to pull in 40%-50% of this years BO total, around 4b-5b

We don't need another thread to track the same information. A '2004 vs. 2005 vs. 2006' thread, or a '2006 vs. other years' thread doesn't hurt.

For example, charts like this:

[table][row]Wkd.[col]2004[col]2005[col]2006[row]1[col color=#FFFF99]$120,162,055 [col]$97,716,367 [col]$105,915,970 [row]2[col]$91,011,472 [col color=#FFFF99]$117,791,185 [col]$101,977,645 [row]3[col color=#FFFF99]$95,097,742 [col]$82,964,899 [col]$94,112,272 [row]4[col]$82,461,857 [col color=#FFFF99]$104,449,103 [col]$100,149,964 [row]5[col]$73,408,189 [col color=#FFFF99]$87,739,607 [col]$81,750,867 [row]6[col]$91,024,844 [col color=#FFFF99]$103,645,650 [col]$102,081,659 [row]7[col]$105,193,824 [col color=#FFFF99]$115,843,406 [col]$110,670,456 [row]8[col]$74,540,440 [col color=#FFFF99]$104,410,129 [col]$100,333,996 [row]9[col color=#FFFF99]$139,698,537 [col]$109,130,561 [col]$83,109,129 [row]10[col color=#FFFF99]$131,390,731 [col]$103,443,530 [col]$93,343,314 [row]11[col]$104,140,551 [col color=#FFFF99]$105,343,897 [col]$92,699,628 [row]12[col color=#FFFF99]$108,314,065 [col]$89,392,004 [col]$97,802,598 [row]13[col]$108,197,926 [col]$97,570,886 [col color=#FFFF99]$140,000,000 [/table]

...or this:

[table][row]Year[col]Gross (in millions)[col]2006[col]2005[col]2004[col]2003[col]2002[row]2006[col]$2,016.10 [col]-[col]-0.30%[col]-5.60%[col]0.60%[col]-3.60%[row]2005[col]$2,022.80 [col]0.30%[col]-[col]-5.30%[col]1.00%[col]-3.30%[row]2004[col]$2,135.20 [col]5.90%[col]5.60%[col]-[col]6.60%[col]2.10%[row]2003[col]$2,003.50 [col]-0.60%[col]-1.00%[col]-6.20%[col]-[col]-4.20%[row]2002[col]$2,090.80 [col]3.70%[col]3.40%[col]-2.10%[col]4.40%[col]-[/table]

...is the only thing needed, really. More than one thread is wasting space.

136.5 million, up 39 million for the weekend!

If this is an early indication of the summer, it's going to be big!

Next weekend is going to be just as great! We have the Benchwarmers, Lucky Number Slevin, Take the Lead and Phat Girlz opening up, and ofcourse the second weekend of Ice Age.

The number to beat last year is 78 million. Easy.

1. Ice Age 2 -- 40 million
2. The Benchwarmers -- 15 million
3. Take the Lead -- 10 million
4. Inside Man -- 9 million
5. ATL -- 8 million
6. Lucky Number Slevin -- 7 million
7. Phat Girlz -- 5 million
8. Failure to Launch -- 4 million
9. V for Vandetta -- 4 million
10. She's the Man -- 3 million

Top 10 total: 105 million

And it gets better next weekend, when our numbers to beat are 74 million, and we have Scary Movie 4 opening, as well as The Wild. April will be huge!

Yes both those charts would be perfect for this thread. no need for more than one thread!

I think its safe to say 06 should defeat 05 by good margin for atleast the next 2 months!! Great stuff!!

with 105 million for the top 12 this weekend, we gained another 25 million on 2005.

And this weekend is going to absolutely blow away last years numbers.
Ok, so it's the long weekend. Many people have both Friday and Monday off of work. cheak.
Scary Movie 4,(now being heavily promoted) which is tracking above 50 million is opening. cheak.
The Wild and Thank You For Smoking both open as well. cheak.
We have some decent holdovers as well with Ice Age, Benchwarmers and Take the Lead. cheak.
The numbers to beat for the top 12 last year: 75 million. cheak.

We could be as much as 50 million above last year next weekend. At this point, we could be going into summer almost 10% ahead of last year.... what a difference a month makes!!!

Here is roughly how I see this upcoming weekend... (3-day)

1. Scary Movie 4 -- 45 million
2. Ice Age 2 -- 20 million
3. The Wild -- 18 million
4. The Benchwarmers -- 12 million
5. Take the Lead -- 8 million
6. Inside Man -- 6 million
7. Thank You For Smoking -- 6 million
8. Lucky Number Slevin -- 4 million
9. Failure to Launch -- 3 million
10. V for Vendetta -- 2 million
11. Phat Girlz -- 1.5 million
12. Friends With Money -- 1.5 million

That is a top 12 total of about 127 million... or 52 million above last years total of 74.5. WOW
Not to mention we'll have the holiday Monday to get some extra dollars. The Easter holiday last year was the last weekend of March...

I think the slump is going to continue year after year, as the movie theatre business is dying. People want to wait 2-3 months for the DVD now. Sorry to be doom and gloom, but let's be real here.

Well, we'll see... after the next two month, we'd have to have a disasterous summer to not beat last year (which let's face it, sucked from June - August)

"B.O. Reversal coming soon"

By Georg Szalai

NEW YORK -- Wall Street continues to discuss the outlook for the film business after a sluggish 2005, with Ladenburg, Thalmann analyst William Kidd in a research report Tuesday taking a more optimistic stance than some peers.

"A solid 2006 boxoffice should breathe new life into cinema" the headline for his report said.

Kidd predicts "an important reversal in 2006," namely "modest growth in boxoffice sales and attendance." He predicted the U.S. boxoffice would grow about 2% this year, with attendance inching up 1% and increased admissions prices doing the rest.

Kidd cited "a strong film slate including a slew of animation films" as key growth drivers this year, listing such upcoming film fare as "The Da Vinci Code," "Superman Returns" and "Mission: Impossible 3" as important summer tentpole releases.

While Standard & Poor's Equity Research Services last week cautioned investors about various secular trends that could hold movie studios back this year -- such as declining U.S. DVD sales and increased competition from newer forms of media, Kidd argued that film business trends always have been cyclical. "Film quality is among the most important near-term determinants of boxoffice revenue," he argued, pointing to recent data. "Industry critics have largely blamed the proliferation of home theater and movie substitutes, like the Internet, for the boxoffice ills, without taking into consideration other contributing factors."

Besides big live-action tentpole releases, Kidd counts eight known animation films for the current year, including "The Wild," "Over the Hedge," "Cars" and "The Ant Bully," up from just three major releases in 2005. "Given that children-friendly movies tend to do better than R-rated movies, and animation movies do even better, we are optimistic that 2006 will show both boxoffice growth and attendance growth," Kidd said.

The current second quarter, which the analyst estimates will see a 3.5% year-over-year boxoffice improvement, and the third quarter, for which he eyes a 2% gain, could be key periods to help reverse investor perceptions, as they would end seven consecutive quarters of boxoffice declines, Kidd said.

Given his expectations, the analyst started coverage Tuesday of exhibition giant Regal Entertainment Group with a $23 price target and a "buy" rating. "We think this story warrants attention," Kidd said. "Because if the industry is going to turn, it's going to do so over the next two to four months, creating a very short fuse."

Other entertainment stocks also could benefit, he said. After all, he argued: "A return to growth could suggest that the recent attendance/boxoffice weakness has been due in large part to the quality of films released and, to a lesser extent, what industry critics have been charging, structural issues."

Evil thought: Poseidon = Speed 2: Cruise Control. LOL.

While the weekend box office wasn't quite as powerful as I was first predicting, it still blew past last year. This year's Top 12 total was 110 million, compared to 74 million last year, or about 36 million ahead. That's pretty damn good!

As of today (with estimates), 2006 is 3.8% higher than 2005. 2006 is ahead of all the other years except 2004, which still had The Passion of the Christ to help it. Still, 2006 is doing great.

Est. Tickets Sold (as of April 16 each year)
2002: 412,500,000
2003: 377,200,000
2004: 404,600,000
2005: 364,200,000
2006: 377,900,000

Yeah, 2006 is ahead.

we're ahead of 2003 at this point as well....

A lead which will no doubt disappear. Summer 2003 was crazy.

Actually, 2003 has one of the weakest July 4th weekend's of this Century... plus there were several other weekends that were rather week for the summer period, and also the last two week of April were weak, so we should gain more ground there.
I think we will be able to keep pace with the summer of 2003, and September and December of that year were quite weak as well, so we should keep the pace throughout the year...

06 is on a roll, I expect 02 to fall behind by august first year with 1.5b tickets sold OH YEAH! ! !

Whoops, don't tell 2002, 2003, and 2004 that.

make that 1.6b

As much as I respect your tastes, Dolce. . .

I guess this means United 93 is a guarenteed hit!

We were up another 18 million this weekend, and are now firmly ahead of 2005.
Things should only get better in the next three weeks, as RV and United 93 will keep the momentum next weekend, before MI3 explodes on the first weekend of May... from there we have Posiedon, Da Vinci, Hedge and X3! Oh my!

I have a feeling that this summer will not only outgross last year, but it might be one of the biggest summer's ever.

At least on paper, there is a lot of potential. MI3, X3, Da Vinci, Pirates, Superman and Cars will all almost undoubtably pass 200$ million, with the last 4 all having potential at 300 million.
Over the Hedge has an outside chance to make it to 200 as well.

They'll be surrounded by other strong pics in the market that all have potential at 100 million + such as Click, The Break Up, Miami Vice, World Trade Centre, The Fast and the Furious 3, Posiedon, You, Me and Dupree, the Ant Bully, Talladega Nights...

A big summer indeed!

With the weak April 2006 has definitely been gaining ground, but after May 5th and 12th 2006 should be firmly in the dust. Hell even the 19th should be fine, as I think Da Vinci Code and Over the Hedge combined (along with the strong holdovers) will handily beat Star Wars and what little it had around it.

Summer '03 had a couple disappointments, but even the so-called disappointments made 100m+ (Hulk, CA2, T3).

Pirates, Matrix 2, X2, Nemo, Bruce Almighty, The Italian Job, Bad Boys 2, Seabiscuit, Freaky Friday, American Wedding, Daddy Day Care, Legally Blond 2, 2F2F, S.W.A.T., Spy Kids 3D, League of Extraordinary Gentlemen, and Freddy vs. Jason more than made up for it.

03's summer was the biggest one at that point (04's passed it).