Wow Just My Luck is really bombing. Chick flicks always get HUGE amounts of reviews, especially Lindsay Lohan. This is crazy, it had such a great trailer!!

Poseidon 590, +29, B
Just My Luck 403, +14, C+
Goal 332, +10, B

Unless we see an unlikely spike or two in the final hours, Poseidon looks all set to sink at about a $6-7M opening day. JML is a dud, and Goal has done decent (assuming the ratio is about 300). Bring on week three of May...

All three are on the front page; Just My Luck has a picture.

Poseidon 671, +81, B
Just My Luck 469, +66, C+
Goal 372, +40, B

2 more updates, Poseidon might be able to pass 800 yet or come close.

what does that mean?

Poseidon 734, +63, B
Just My Luck 508, +39, C+
Goal 394, +24, B

Given its performance in California so far, I see Goal getting at least $1m today.

That should fuck up all of our derbys...

So we should all hope it does even better, then the difference between a 0.8 and 1.4 will shrink more. A $4m gross would mean a difference of only 1.5% in overall average, but a $2m total would double it to 3%.

Final numbers:

Poseidon 752, +18, B- (down from B)
Just My Luck 526, +18, C+
Goal 405, +11, B

Poseidon's Yahoo pace is quite slow the whole day, but manages to get close to 800 with some help from being on front page after midnight ET. The change increases my ratio projection to 100-125, which puts its Friday gross at $6.0-7.5m. It had 191 for the final four updates, and the number maps to the same range if we use a normal 4-hour ratio of 30 for front-page movies.

EDIT: didn't even notice I crossed 10,000 posts.

My calculations have Poseidon at 5.9m.

I think JML can reach 2.2m.

Goal might reach 1.2m.

Congrats. heh

This is what I don't understand.

How could Just My Luck do worse than Stick It. Just My Luck has a much better concept than Stick It (and Lindsey is more reconizable than Missy). First I underpredict Stick It, and now I overpredict Just My Luck. Why do girl flicks screw me over all the time?

I think the commercials were much more effective for Stick It.

Yeah, I think Lindsey might've actually been poison for it.

Considering it's great concept, I can't imagine it doing worse than it's likely 6-7 mil if even an almost unknown like in Stick It starred. I mean, there's no reason why this movie should've tanked, it looked like a damn good bet to success for me. A barely past $2000 PTA is not acceptable for something that should've had promise, that's half of Stick It.

I just don't think Lindsey is well liked at all any more. Amanda Bynes isn't more of a celebrity by any means, but people actually like her. Lindsey is A-list as hell, but everyone hates her guts. It doesn't matter if you're that famous, if people don't like you, you won't get success. Lindsey's rat stage in the last year has pushed her into full-on disgrace mode, her last album tanking plus this proves that. Same situation with Hilary Duff, I'd bet some of her recent films wouldn't have opened that low if it wasn't for her and the pop tart backlash.

I actually think Amanda Bynes is now more a draw now than the 2 above, and Sophia Bush will certainly be after this summer's John Tucker if she isn't already. Can you say Power Shift?

But isn't it possible that JML is completely underestimated with the Yahoo numbers? If I remember correctly Stick It Up was projected in here way below compared to what it came up with

How the HELL did Goal! get so high?!?!

How the HELL did JML get so low?!?!

Why does predicting box office make me cry?!?!?

It was actually the only good projection I had that week.

I stand corrected and go into the corner ashamed. Boo Just My Luck. How could you tank so badly?

Hmmm, Lindsay Lohan did to Just My Luck what Tom Cruise did to M:I-3, maybe even worse.


Anyway, Goal really makes me mad. As xiayun has said, I can only hope that it musters up $4+ million this weekend.

My projections:

Poseidon - $5.8-7.1 million
Just My Luck - $2-3 million
Goal - $1.2-1.5 million


Congrats @ 10,000 posts, xia! : )

My prediction:

Poseidon $6.45 m

I hope it is just that people didn't like the looks of Poseidon and to some degree MI:3. My concern is that gas prices are eating into disposable income making people a lot pickier. Let's hope Da Vinci Code opens big.

I think its completely lack of interest for both films. I don't think its another slump, because both films offered nothing new, that moviegoers hadn't already seen over and over again. So why see the film, when your not going to get something new?

I agree with this. Amanda Bynes actually holds more drawing power than possibly Lohan and certainly Duff. What did Duff do to lose her drawing power? I don't remember her doing anything as public as what Lohan has done.

I guess it's just me but I rarely see anything new in any summer movie.

Nothing really, she just makes shit movies now. For instance Raise Her Voice was about her trying to become popular and a good singer. Even young girls know that she is a great singer, and will become popular. She needs to go back to her style of physical comedy.