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Most successful Oscar hopeful this year?

Which possible Oscar contender will be the biggest at the box-office?

Memoirs of a Geisha	9%	[ 3 ]
Walk the Line	27%	[ 9 ]
Munich	33%	[ 11 ]
Syriana	3%	[ 1 ]
The Producers	9%	[ 3 ]
Good Night, and Good Luck	0%	[ 0 ]
The New World	0%	[ 0 ]
Match Point	0%	[ 0 ]
Brokeback Mountain	3%	[ 1 ]
Other (please specify!)	15%	[ 5 ]

Total votes : 33

Most successful Oscar hopeful this year?

Author	Message
Harry Warden Orphan Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:47 pm Posts: 19747	andaroo wrote: BJ, the Rent advertising is using critical reviews from web sites. There are no quotes from Time or Ebert and the like. There are some bad reviews floating around, Eugene Levy, David Poland, etc.. It's not getting early reviews from big names, etc. That's usually a sign of trouble, at least critically. Jeffrey Wells raved about it, for what that's worth Match Point should benefit from buzz once it gets closer to release as the critics seem to love it, as should The New World.
Fri Nov 18, 2005 1:05 pm

BJ Killing With Kindness Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska	DP07 wrote: Probably Munich, Geisha or WTL with 70m-110m. Rent will bomb badly with less then 30m. bleh, Rent has a much better chance of breaking out than the outher two. _________________ The Force Awakens
Fri Nov 18, 2005 1:44 pm

Maverikk Award Winning Bastard Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:03 am Posts: 15310 Location: Slumming at KJ	Walk the Line.
Fri Nov 18, 2005 2:22 pm

jb007 Veteran Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 1:47 pm Posts: 3917 Location: Las Vegas	Munich by a wide margin. _________________ Dr. RajKumar 4/24/1929 - 4/12/2006 The Greatest Actor Ever. Thanks for The Best Cinematic Memories of My Life.
Fri Nov 18, 2005 2:39 pm

zingy College Boy Z Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm Posts: 36662	I_Was_Your_Sam wrote: Munich is NOT gonna be successful. Are you people on crack?!?! ...why?
Fri Nov 18, 2005 4:07 pm

Mr. Reynolds Confessing on a Dance Floor Joined: Tue Nov 23, 2004 12:46 am Posts: 5578 Location: Celebratin' in Chitown	you guys follow this stuff religiously. i am your average movie watcher. so 1. i just saw a trailer for Munich and it doesn't appeal to me at all 2. when is it coming out? 3. what is it about? 4. just because it's spielberg does not mean it will be big. no one knows or cares about this movie. there are too many high profile movies coming out. the producers has a huge following. it will totally do better than munich.
Fri Nov 18, 2005 8:08 pm

DP07 The Thirteenth Floor Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:26 am Posts: 15544 Location: Everywhere	I agree Munich doesn't have that much BO potential as much as I want to see it. However buzz alone should give it a minimum of 50m.
Fri Nov 18, 2005 8:10 pm

Shack Devil's Advocate Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 40470	The Producers had an ugly ass trailer though. Its no flashy Chicago broadway musical. Most of the scenes of the performances are on a crappy grey stage, in a crappy theatre. And Uma Thurman just bumbles around yelling swedish like an idiot, same goes for Will Ferrell meaning he plays dumb. I don't know. I could see this one bombing. _________________ Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
Fri Nov 18, 2005 8:33 pm

Dr. Lecter You must have big rats Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany	I_Was_Your_Sam wrote: you guys follow this stuff religiously. i am your average movie watcher. so 1. i just saw a trailer for Munich and it doesn't appeal to me at all 2. when is it coming out? 3. what is it about? 4. just because it's spielberg does not mean it will be big. no one knows or cares about this movie. there are too many high profile movies coming out. the producers has a huge following. it will totally do better than munich. Not a single Spielberg movie since Amistad made less than $70 million. That does say something. And considering Munich is going to get award buzz, I don'z see how it could get less than $80-90 million either. _________________ The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
Fri Nov 18, 2005 9:52 pm

Dr. Lecter You must have big rats Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany	With the bad reviews, Geisha is now unlikely to come even close to $100 million. Which leaves Walk the Line as #2 on my list and Kunich still at #1. _________________ The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
Sun Dec 11, 2005 1:18 am

Goldie Forum General Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2004 12:38 pm Posts: 7286 Location: TOPSECRET ***************** **************** **************** ******************	Re: Most successful Oscar hopeful this year? Dr. Lecter wrote: We are in the middle of November and the award season just starts to pick up with Walk the Line's release. Each year there are movies that make quite a good box-office simply thanks to the award buzz surrounding them. Last year, the awards carried The Aviator and Million Dollar Baby just beyond the $100 million mark and helped a small flick like Sideways to actually pass $70 million. As it has become obvious, especially the Best Picture nominees benefit from the awards immensly as well as movies that are surrounded by huge buzz, even though they don't end up nominated (see Cold Mountain as an example). This year seems not so predictable when it comes to possible Oscar contenders and their box-office The same question has been asked last year around this time and I ask it once again. Which of the potential Oscar hopefuls do you think will be the biggest box-office hit this year? I obviously didn't include movies like Narnia or King Kong, as those would be pretty obvious. Here is my compiled list of potential Oscar hopefuls this winter: Syriana Walk the Line Brokeback Mountain Memoirs of a Geisha Munich Match Point The Producers Rent Good Night, and Good Luck The New World The Libertine Capote Pride & Prejudice Mrs. Henderson Presents Certainly, not all of them will turn out as much of the contenders as we predict them right now to be. Last year at this point many of us predicted Alexander and The Phantom of the Opera to be huge contenders. We all know how it ended. Nonetheless, from the very beginning they did have some buzz surrounding them and this is the criteria I went by for my selection as well. As of now I predict that either Munich or Memoirs of a Geisha will end up with the biggest box-office of them, unless The Producers pulls a big surprise and garners many noms. Right now, I'd give a slight edge to Memoirs of a Geisha. *Here is what I see them making roughly:* Memoirs of a Geisha - $110 million Munich - $95-100 million The Producers - $85-95 million Walk the Line - $75 million Rent - $70-75 million Syriana - $55-60 million The New World - $50-55 million Good Night, and Good Luck - $35-40 million Brokeback Mountain - $30 million Pride & Prejudice - $25-30 million Match Point - $20 million Capote - $12-15 million I really have no clue about Mrs. Henderson Presents and The Libertine, though... Lecter, I don't think this was a good time to bump up this as your BO picks that for the movies that came out haven't been too good. This alone might kill your chances in Poster Awards for the Best BO Predictor. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news. *Here is what I see them making roughly:* Memoirs of a Geisha - $110 million > ?????????????? Munich - $95-100 million The Producers - $85-95 million Walk the Line - $75 million > ????????? Rent - $70-75 million > ??????????????? Syriana - $55-60 million The New World - $50-55 million Good Night, and Good Luck - $35-40 million Brokeback Mountain - $30 million Pride & Prejudice - $25-30 million Match Point - $20 million Capote - $12-15 million
Sun Dec 11, 2005 1:43 am

Dr. Lecter You must have big rats Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany	And I do care....? _________________ The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
Sun Dec 11, 2005 1:45 am

zingy College Boy Z Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm Posts: 36662	That's why they're called predictions, Goldie. I didn't see any from you in this thread.
Sun Dec 11, 2005 1:49 am

Dr. Lecter You must have big rats Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany	Well, I, for one, remember very well Goldie predicting Christmas with the Kranks to easily outdo The Polar Express and Hitch not to outgross 50 First Dates _________________ The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
Sun Dec 11, 2005 1:58 am

Goldie Forum General Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2004 12:38 pm Posts: 7286 Location: TOPSECRET ***************** **************** **************** ******************	Dr. Lecter wrote: And I do care....? Lecter, well if you want to save a chance to try to win the following KJ poster award you have to stop bringing up these bad BO predictions. Remember things are different since you were running these awards. and Z, I was just trying to be a nice guy and point out that Lecter isn't helping himself by doing that. I say balls to the walls, in honor to Lecter's Haaselhoff avatar, and the hell with everything else > just vote Lecter - as Goldie throws his support behind Lecter. Best Box-Office Predictor: - DP07 - Dr. Lecter - Jeff42 - Mr. Scott (aka Scott V) - xiayun
Sun Dec 11, 2005 4:37 am

Shack Devil's Advocate Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 40470	Mwhaha... I guess we weren't expecting King Kong to take that leap into the Oscar fray. Its probable 300 mil+ gross should obliterate the 100 mil range of Munich and Walk the Line and such. _________________ Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
Sun Dec 11, 2005 4:39 am

Dr. Lecter You must have big rats Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany	Shack wrote: Mwhaha... I guess we weren't expecting King Kong to take that leap into the Oscar fray. Its probable 300 mil+ gross should obliterate the 100 mil range of Munich and Walk the Line and such. Shack, you need to read my first post more carefully! _________________ The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
Sun Dec 11, 2005 5:18 am

Goldie Forum General Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2004 12:38 pm Posts: 7286 Location: TOPSECRET ***************** **************** **************** ******************	Dr. Lecter wrote: Shack wrote: Mwhaha... I guess we weren't expecting King Kong to take that leap into the Oscar fray. Its probable 300 mil+ gross should obliterate the 100 mil range of Munich and Walk the Line and such. Shack, you need to read my first post more carefully! Yes Shack you have to read it very cafefully as Lecter wasn't very clear. and even the poll re-inforces your misconception Which possible Oscar contender will be the biggest at the box-office? Memoirs of a Geisha Walk the Line Munich Syriana The Producers Good Night, and Good Luck The New World Match Point Brokeback Mountain Other (please specify!)
Sun Dec 11, 2005 5:26 am

_axiom The Wall Joined: Wed Jan 26, 2005 10:50 am Posts: 16163 Location: Croatia	Well Munich isn't looking all that good. It's currently at 67% on RT (see here). There are only 6 reviews, but almost every film starts with higher RT score than it finishes with.
Sun Dec 11, 2005 5:58 am

Dr. Lecter You must have big rats Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany	Well two of potential contenders (even though one of them is already out of the race) are out now in limited release: Memoirs of a Geisha and Brokeback Mountain occupied the 14th and the 16th spot at the box-office respectively. Memoirs of a Geisha opened to $647,000 in 8 theatres for a PTA of 84,250. Its PTA is the 3rd biggest ever for a live-action movie and the biggest ever for any film released in over 6 theatres. Next weekend it expands to 50 theatres and then goes wider in its third weekend. Brokeback Mountain opened to $545,000 in 5 theatres for a PTA of $109,000. This is the 9th biggest opening PTA ever and the biggest opening PTA ever for a live-action movie as well as the 2nd biggest opening PTA for a movie playing in 5 theatres or more (behind Pocahontas). It expands to 60 theatres next weekend and gradually expands throughout December and January. As of now it is slowly becoming the frontrunner in this year's Oscar race. Next weekend: The Producers (initially a contender, now with mediocre reviews pretty much out of the race for major noms) opens in 6 theatres. I think a PTA of around 35,000-40,000 can be expected... _________________ The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
Mon Dec 12, 2005 1:21 am

Chippy KJ's Leading Pundit Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm Posts: 63026 Location: Tonight... YOU!	King Kong _________________ trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct Rev wrote: Fuck Trump
Mon Dec 12, 2005 1:23 am

Dr. Lecter You must have big rats Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany	ChipMunky wrote: King Kong I made it pretty clear in the first post that I mean all the contenders EXCEPT for Narnia and Kong. _________________ The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
Mon Dec 12, 2005 1:24 am

Chippy KJ's Leading Pundit Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm Posts: 63026 Location: Tonight... YOU!	Dr. Lecter wrote: ChipMunky wrote: King Kong I made it pretty clear in the first post that I mean all the contenders... ESPECIALLY Narnia and Kong. King Kong _________________ trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct Rev wrote: Fuck Trump
Mon Dec 12, 2005 1:27 am

Dr. Lecter You must have big rats Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany	Contenders Tracking: Memoirs of a Geisha: [table][row]Weekend[col]Weekend Gross[col]% Change[col]Theatres[col]PTA[col]Total gross[row]Dec 9-11[col]$682,504[col]NEW[col]8[col]$85,313[col]$682,504[row]Dec 16-18[col]$1,302,331[col]+90.8%[col]52[col]$25,044[col]$2,274,320[/table] Brokeback Mountain: [table][row]Weekend[col]Weekend Gross[col]% Change[col]Theatres[col][b]PTA[/b][col]Total gross[row]Dec 9-11[col]$547,425[col]NEW[col]5[col]$109,485[col]$547,425[row]Dec 16-18[col]$2,508,494[col]+358%[col]69[col]$36,354[col]$3,474,311[/table] The Producers: [table][row]Weekend[col]Weekend Gross[col]% Change[col]Theatres[col]PTA[col]Total gross[row]Dec 16-18[col]$154,590[col]NEW[col]5[col]$25,765[col]$154,590[/table] __________________________________________________________________________________________ A rather unimpressive start for The Producers. Next Week: - Memoirs of a Geisha expands to 1,400+ theatres. - The Producers expands to 1,000+ theatres on Sunday - Brokeback Mountain expands to 120+ theatres - Munich opens in est. 525 theatres - Mrs. Henderson Presents expands to 56 theatres on Sunday - Transamerica expands to 23 theatres - The New World opens in 3 theatres Stay tuned. _________________ The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
Wed Dec 21, 2005 1:24 am

Dr. Lecter You must have big rats Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany	Contenders Tracking: Memoirs of a Geisha: [table][row]Weekend[col]Weekend Gross[col]% Change[col]Theatres[col]PTA[col]Total gross[row]Dec 9-11[col]$682,504[col]NEW[col]8[col]$85,313[col]$682,504[row]Dec 16-18[col]$1,302,331[col]+90.8%[col]52[col]$25,044[col]$2,274,320[row]Dec 23-25[col]$6,751,729[col]+418%[col]1,547[col]$4,364[col]$9,841,364[/table] Brokeback Mountain: [table][row]Weekend[col]Weekend Gross[col]% Change[col]Theatres[col][b]PTA[/b][col]Total gross[row]Dec 9-11[col]$547,425[col]NEW[col]5[col]$109,485[col]$547,425[row]Dec 16-18[col]$2,508,494[col]+358%[col]69[col]$36,354[col]$3,474,311[row]Dec 23-25[col]$1,910,310[col]-23.8%[col]217[col]$8,803[col]$6,847,551[/table] The Producers: [table][row]Weekend[col]Weekend Gross[col]% Change[col]Theatres[col]PTA[col]Total gross[row]Dec 16-18[col]$154,590[col]NEW[col]5[col]$25,765[col]$154,590[row]Dec 23-25[col]$1,616,791[col]+946%[col]975[col]$1,618[col]$1,860,042[/table] Munich:* [table][row]Weekend[col]Weekend Gross[col]% Change[col]Theatres[col]PTA[col]Total gross[row]Dec 23-25[col]$4,152,260[col]NEW[col]532[col]$7,805[col]$4,152,260[/table] Syriana: [table][row]Weekend[col]Weekend Gross[col]% Change[col]Theatres[col]PTA[col]Total gross[row]Nov 25-27[col]$374,502[col]NEW[col]5[col]$74,900[col]$553,530[row]Dec 2-4[col]$521,420[col]+39.2%[col]9[col]$57,935[col]$1,271,259[row]Dec 9-11[col]$11,737,143[col]+2,151%[col]1,752[col]$6,699[col]$13,236,572[row]Dec 16-18[col]$5,605,167[col]-52.2%[col]1,775[col]$3,317[col]$22,462,362[row]Dec 23-25[col]$3,190,000[col]-43.1%[col]1,725[col]$1,849[col]$28,830,000[/table] __________________________________________________________________________________________ * The Producers expanded to 975 on Sunday, so it's basically the one day gross from wide release and the two-day gross from 6 theatres. - Memoirs of a Geisha did very well in expansion and should be on track to $55+ million now - Munich's opening is slightly disappointing, but I still see a $80+ million total - I added Syriana which is really struggling for the kind of a contender and well-reviewd movie that it is because of bad WoM. Should finish somewhere with $40-45 million Next weekend: - Brokeback Mountain expands to 250 theatres - Match Point opens in 8 theatres on Wednesday _________________ The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
Wed Dec 28, 2005 1:34 am
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