Its doing half-well, but I still don't see 100 mil.

After a big-ish drop next weekend, Chronicles of Narnia + Everything else on the Dec. 9th weekend will eat it up, then King Kong and that loaded Christmas weekend. It will drop hard.

This reminds me of Doom, when everybody but you realized it was over.

I was pretty sure it was going to reach 100m a couple days ago, but the weekend was below my expectations. It's going to be close, and it might go either way. I'll still with 101m though as I think it will stick around to benefit from late Dec. It will get more if not released on DVD in Feb, however, I think FOX will do so as it would be the more profitable move. Ray sold a boatload of DVDs.

It's really WOM though that I think will be the difference. It had an A- at Yahoo for a while and the ranking in the top 50 has been holding extremely well. It's still at #18. If WOM wasn't this strong I think it would be headed for 90m with the multiplier of 4 most of us were projecting.

Eh, for me it's not so much the who's right and who's wrong that's important, but the ideas being discussed in terms of why the BO acts as it does.

Well, I guess the real difference was that I saw most of those factors as being less valuable then you (especially the cast).



Mystic River nearly hit 100m.

But really I do see those as being the best possible examples. Of course they all differ from WTL, but all films are unique, so unless you are talking about films in the same franchise there will always be some differences. I don't think the size of release matters that much since the numbers pretty much show Seabiscuit would have been at 26m or so, MR at about 15m and FN at about 10m-12m if given 2,900 theaters. I also don't see FN as an arthouse films since it had great WOM with mainstream audiences. It's the 5th ranked movie at yahoo for 2004, and the top among the best picture nominated films. DVD sales were also great.

I'm sure the audiences for each of those films were closer to WTL's then popcorn films like NT and O11, but I don't see how we can debate it any further.



Fair enough. The film opened between our predictions of 20.5m and 26m and that proved little (well, maybe that there was something else helping Jarhead ). In any case, the main argument remains the same, and really goes beyond this film.

If you analyze both Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring's BO tracking, and Walk the Line's BO tracking, you'll notice distinct similarities. I can confidentaly say that Walk the Line will pass 300 million.

Here's a comparison chart for Walk the Line vs. Ray, including weekdays, weekends, and weekly comparison. Just so it's easier...

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/ ... cbiovs.htm

After this weekend we should be down to a shade over 30 million left to go. It's continued expansion means that it'll be hanging around in theaters, and it hasn't had it's Oscar publicity campaign yet.

Walk the Line is a 150m+ smash, should easily have over 100m by the end of December, than the oscars will bring in the rest of the BO $$$$

Also, if you look at this weekend's projections, Ray had a very strong 52% drop for its weekend, while Line is projected at only a 44% drop. That's a huge different. I also didn't realize the production budgets were so different. 28 million to 40 million. I definately felt the lavishness of Ray in a way I didn't for Line. As I mentioned earlier, neither one won me over, but I did like Ray better as far as all technicals, and direction, etc.

But Line is destined for 100 Million now. 44% drop is incredible for a post-Thanksgiving weekend. Especially when one considers how well it held over last weekend, keeping the #2 pole position.

I'll admit that things are starting to look mighty golden for you, Mav.

...But I'm still not kissing your toes until the day that it physically does pass that 100 mil barrier.

It's not a given yet as it'll need a multiplier of about 4.0-4.2 from this point on to get there. I'd say the odd is 85%.

you have to be kidding, with oscars coming up a miltiplyer of less that 5.0 at this point would be dissapointing especailly for a film that is most likely a frontrunner for best pic like this one.

I agree with the middle part but not the last part.

This will make $80-90m in a normal run so $100m is a given when you consider Christmas and the awards season. Its 99.5% lock.

We're down to a bit over 31 million to go after the first 3 weekends. Anybody have any thoughts?

I see it as I always have, with it surpassing 100 million, and I'd say everything is clearly foreshadowing that.

Even though I'm in the club, I predicted, in the end around 95 million, and I'm pretty confident with that.

It's $20.3m away from passing my prediction.

Well with 10m in the bank this wknd, the is will definately get over 100m, the true battle is for 150m

I expect a sub 30% drop next wknd than another the wknd after fallowed buy a 40%-60% increase over new years wknd. A sub 25% drop on first wkd of decembe due to oscar buzz, then outstanding holds and icnreases from there on powering its way to 150m

100m = 100% garanteed IMHO

150m is the new number to shoot for

I really don't know if it can make it, which is odd for me for a movie this far in its run. I am not very good at estimating how a movie will open, but I can't remember the last time I was so confused over whether a movie could make some milestone after three weekends of B.O. data. Last Friday and this Friday it seemed a lock but when the estimates came out both weeks it went back to 50/50. I thought last week if the actuals came out over $20m it would make it, it didn't happen. I thought the same this week if the actuals are over $10m, which seem unlikely at this point. $10/20m may seem arbitrary, but if those numbers are achieved it makes a few million difference in the final total for WTL which seems to need it at this point. It seems odd that a movie this close to $100m still going strong with the holidays coming won't make it, but I don't think it will from what has transpired. Having stated my pessimism, it still has a strong chance of making it. I think by the time of Kong weekend we will know one way or the other (I think it still needs to be hovering around $5M, it that happens then no worries, mate). This movie has done just enough to stay on track for $100m its entire run to this point, it just hasn't given us enough to emphatically state it will or won't make it. At least not in my opinion.

Between great WOM, award boosts starting when the Globes are announced, upcoming holidays and oscar boost in January/Febuary (I think the film was released too late too be released on DVD in Febuary, like Ray), I'd say its all but garenteed $100M. Congrats and Phenoix and Reese. :thumpsup:

Just to let y'all know, I'll be seeing Walk the Line tomorrow night.

Hurrah.

I'm still thinking 100m-105m with a February DVD release.

Zingy has conceded to the 100 million club!

By next Saturday, he will be taking a trip to the theater to see Walk the Line, and he'll be writing a review for all of our reading pleasure.

Lecter is still in a holding pattern, but is expected to crack soon.