I think it has to do with the fact that Daniel Radcliffe has a scene in a bath in this movie

I saw it last night at a huge 450 seat theatre on the first cheapo Tuesday of it's run and there was only 5 other people watching - this movie is not going over very big at the box office...

...plus, there's the fact that it just isn't a very good movie...

Ok, we'll take your word for it and disgard that nice drop it had on Monday!

That has nothing to do with Tuesday.

$30,437,000 so far...only $69,563,000 more to go.

I added the countdown box office gross to the title of the thread.

It better not disapoint and start dropping hard after this weekend.

It hasn't even started riding the awards season wave yet.

It will, but this is the only movie playing at the moment that will still be playing a decent amount of theaters in March.

With only $45,279,000 left to go after just 10 days in theaters, let's examine the possibilities.

Without counting weekdays, here's 50% drops from here on out in December

[table]
[row][col]Date[col]gross
[row][col]Dec. 2 - Dec. 4[col]$9,850,000
[row][col]Dec. 9 - Dec. 11[col]$4,925,000
[row][col]Dec. 16 - Dec. 18[col]$2,462,500
[row][col]Dec. 23 - Dec. 25[col]$1,231,250 [/table]

That's $18,468,750

That would leave only $26,810,250 for weekdays and holidays to add even more to the overall gross, and we are considering 50% drops and only for December, as I'm not counting January, and that's when the awards season wave begins in earnest.

how is it tracking against Ray?

It's up by about 15 million.

$39,641,775 for Ray after 10 days.

At the same point in time...

Walk the Line: $54,721,000
Ray: $39,641,775

Ray didn't have Thanksgiving second weekend, but it's still tracking ahead of it.

Thanks Mav and Libs.

100m looks like a close to lock now. It should drop much after next weekend. If it gets golden globes it will definitely push it passed 100m(if not already there).

I was reading through the first few pages of this thread and looking at some of the silly arguments against it.

Remember when it was going to open to $12M? When Get Rich or Die Trying would beat it? When it would get crushed by Harry Potter?

Heh.

I'm eager to see how close I will be with this call.

I often peruse this thread for a giggle at the arguments against this making 100 million.

I've already got a movie picked out for Zingy.

Walk the Line is IMHO going to fall less than 50% next wknd, Im thinking 45%-48% Than it will fall less than 35% every wknd for the rest of its run untill post oscars

BJ screams 150m+ for Walk the Line with or without best pick

Here's a Ray comparison chart. I'll update it once the actuals for the last 5 days come in.

[table][row][col]Day[col]Ray[col]Walk the Line[col]Difference
[row][col]1[col]$6,649,890[col]$7,611,332[col]$961,442
[row][col]2[col]$15,075,045[col]$16,565,243[col]$1,490,198
[row][col]3[col]$20,039,730[col]$22,347,341[col]$2,307,611
[row][col]4[col]$21,754,860[col]$24,571,047[col]$2,816,187
[row][col]5[col]$23,308,745[col]$27,121,798[col]$3,813,053
[row][col]6[col]$24,642,735[col]$30,422,000[col]$5,779,265
[row][col]7[col]$25,996,785[col]$35,022,000[col]$9,025,215
[row][col]8[col]$29,900,640[col]$42,722,000[col]$12,821,360
[row][col]9[col]$36,181,290[col]$50,422,000[col]$14,240,710
[row][col]10[col]$39,641,775[col]$54,721,000[col]$15,079,225
[row][col]11[col]$40,552,915[col][col]
[row][col]12[col]$41,477,665[col][col]
[row][col]13[col]$42,486,660[col][col]
[row][col]14[col]$44,112,240[col][col]
[row][col]15[col]$46,512,020[col][col]
[row][col]16[col]$50,383,585[col][col]
[row][col]17[col]$52,523,595[col][col][/table]

I like that chart Mav, I say right now Walk the Line is going to make at least 95 million, as there is weak competition for Oscar movies for a few weeks. Even with the sharp dropoff this coming weekend, I think it still has a decent chance for 100 million, though nothing's set in stone quite yet, still too early

Now, assuming that it gets a more than generous 50% drop next weekend, let's look at a few more possibilities. (I hope my math's right)

I've already shown you what 50% drops every weekend would bring the total to by year's end without including all of the weekdays between now and then.



We all know that upcoming lack of competition for a few weeks, as well as awards boosts and holidays, are going to make it impossible for this film to drop as high as that. Here's what the weekend total for the remainder of the year will look like if this has a 50% drop this weekend, and then is followed by more realistic drops of a 30%, 35%, or 40% average.

[table]
[row][col]Date[col]gross
[row][col]Dec. 2 - Dec. 4[col]$9,850,000
[row][col]Dec. 9 - Dec. 11[col]$5,910,000

[row][col]Dec. 16 - Dec. 18[col]$3,546,000
[row][col]Dec. 23 - Dec. 25[col]$2,127,600[/table]

$21,433,600 for the weekends only in December, with $23,845,400 to go at 40% average drops.


[table]
[row][col]Date[col]gross
[row][col]Dec. 2 - Dec. 4[col]$9,850,000
[row][col]Dec. 9 - Dec. 11[col]$6,402,500
[row][col]Dec. 16 - Dec. 18[col]$4,161,625
[row][col]Dec. 23 - Dec. 25[col]$2,705056[/table]


$23,119,181 for the weekends only in December with $22,159,819 to go at 35% average drops.

[table]
[row][col]Date[col]gross
[row][col]Dec. 2 - Dec. 4[col]$9,850,000
[row][col]Dec. 9 - Dec. 11[col]$6,895,000
[row][col]Dec. 16 - Dec. 18[col]$4,826,500
[row][col]Dec. 23 - Dec. 25[col]$3,378550[/table]


$24,950,050 for the weekends only in December with $20,328,950 to go at 30% average drops.

good there's still chance it'll fall short of $100m.

[table][row][col]Day[col]Ray[col]Walk the Line[col]Difference
[row][col]1[col]$6,649,890[col]$7,611,332[col]$961,442
[row][col]2[col]$15,075,045[col]$16,565,243[col]$1,490,198
[row][col]3[col]$20,039,730[col]$22,347,341[col]$2,307,611
[row][col]4[col]$21,754,860[col]$24,571,047[col]$2,816,187
[row][col]5[col]$23,308,745[col]$27,121,798[col]$3,813,053
[row][col]6[col]$24,642,735[col]$30,332,081[col]$5,869,346
[row][col]7[col]$25,996,785[col]$34,795,769[col]$8,798,984
[row][col]8[col]$29,900,640[col]$42,396,001[col]$12,495,061
[row][col]9[col]$36,181,290[col]$50,010,062[col]$13,828,772
[row][col]10[col]$39,641,775[col]$54,008,042[col]$14,366,267
[row][col]11[col]$40,552,915[col][col]
[row][col]12[col]$41,477,665[col][col]
[row][col]13[col]$42,486,660[col][col]
[row][col]14[col]$44,112,240[col][col]
[row][col]15[col]$46,512,020[col][col]
[row][col]16[col]$50,383,585[col][col]
[row][col]17[col]$52,523,595[col][col][/table]

Oh, hey, Maverikk. I chipped in my $5.50

Very good movie. Sure, it may be a "conventional" biopic, but I just connect with Johnny Cash (even though I have none of his CDs) quite a bit.