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Loyal
"no rank"
Joined: Wed Nov 29, 2006 8:43 pm
Posts: 24502
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 Re: Contenders 2016 Chippy wrote: Loyal wrote: Algren wrote: I skimmed through lesson one. Already knew it. What's coming up in lesson two? Check back in 12 months. We'll see if you're asking the same questions over and over again next season.  he will be, because how could we movie experts who have been following and researching films for 10+ years know anything of value I don't know Algren as much as you guys do. Is it a shtick?
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| Wed Jan 13, 2016 12:50 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Re: Contenders 2016 I might disagree a lot with Loyal on his approach, especially during this Oscar season, but he is right about that these things are as much subject to analysis and predictions as is box-office. It is about trends and stats and cultural and politics.
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Wed Jan 13, 2016 1:03 pm |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm
Posts: 63026
Location: Tonight... YOU!
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Re: Contenders 2016 Loyal wrote: Chippy wrote: Loyal wrote: Algren wrote: I skimmed through lesson one. Already knew it. What's coming up in lesson two? Check back in 12 months. We'll see if you're asking the same questions over and over again next season. he will be, because how could we movie experts who have been following and researching films for 10+ years know anything of value I don't know Algren as much as you guys do. Is it a shtick? To a degree, yes. It's more not caring. Which is fine. But as most do online, it's inflated. _________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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| Wed Jan 13, 2016 1:28 pm |
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Loyal
"no rank"
Joined: Wed Nov 29, 2006 8:43 pm
Posts: 24502
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Re: Contenders 2016 Dr. Lecter wrote: I might disagree a lot with Loyal on his approach, especially during this Oscar season, but he is right about that these things are as much subject to analysis and predictions as is box-office. It is about trends and stats and cultural and politics. That's the nicest thing you've ever said about me.  It's rare but I still do get genuinely surprised by contenders. The Hurt Locker and Slumdog Millionaire are two recent examples for me because both films had complicated distribution/acquisition backgrounds. The Hurt Locker for example, premiered in the fall of 2008 and somehow carried over that enthusiasm for a full 12 months into the next year's Oscar race. And Slumdog Millionaire was this close to being a straight to DVD release. But 99.99%, you can see these films coming from a mile away. "Wait a second, Spielberg is directing a WWII film about gay priests in an interracial relationship who are also Olympic rowers with cerebral palsy!? Oscahs for everybody!"
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| Wed Jan 13, 2016 1:28 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm
Posts: 68318
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Re: Contenders 2016 I would love it if Hacksaw Ridge is a contender and gets people loving Mel again. It is about WW2 after all, but the thing it doesn't have is that Oscar-level acting performer (Sam Worthington, Vince Vaughn, Andrew Garfield, Hugo Weaving). Oh, and apart from Randall Wallace (Braveheart, Pearl Harbor, We Were Soldiers) it is written by TV writers. And I suspect that the Hollywood Jews won't allow it to be nominated for anything.
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| Wed Jan 13, 2016 11:29 pm |
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Loyal
"no rank"
Joined: Wed Nov 29, 2006 8:43 pm
Posts: 24502
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Re: Contenders 2016 That big Lee Daniels Richard Pryor biopic is coming out this year right? Eddie Murphy, Oprah, Kate Hudson, Taraji P. Henson. All previous Oscar nominees.
I'd pencil that in as a big possibility, especially if voters want to avoid a third year of #OscarsSoWhite
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| Fri Jan 15, 2016 6:20 pm |
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Loyal
"no rank"
Joined: Wed Nov 29, 2006 8:43 pm
Posts: 24502
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Re: Contenders 2016 Add this to the list 'Birth of a Nation': The Slave-Revolt Movie That Will Have Sundance Talking http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/featur ... olt-857177
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| Wed Jan 20, 2016 5:43 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am
Posts: 40491
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Re: Contenders 2016 Whatever happened to Amy Adams Oscar winning Janis Joplin role?
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| Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:05 am |
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trixster
loyalfromlondon
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 6:31 pm
Posts: 19697
Location: ville-marie
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Re: Contenders 2016 _________________Magic Mike wrote: zwackerm wrote: If John Wick 2 even makes 30 million I will eat 1,000 shoes. Same. Algren wrote: I don't think. I predict. 
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| Thu Jan 21, 2016 4:56 pm |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm
Posts: 25109
Location: San Mateo, CA
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Re: Contenders 2016 Manchester by the Sea is the first contender out of Sundance, especially for Casey Affleck.
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| Mon Jan 25, 2016 3:42 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm
Posts: 68318
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Re: Contenders 2016 Southside With You could get a lot of nominations to appease the blacks.
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| Mon Jan 25, 2016 8:36 am |
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Price
Gamaur's sex slave
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2005 7:15 pm
Posts: 8889
Location: Los Pollos Hermanos
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Re: Contenders 2016 One director and one actor spot already taken by these two guys:  _________________
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| Mon Jan 25, 2016 9:58 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm
Posts: 68318
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Re: Contenders 2016 Hanks looks great.
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| Mon Jan 25, 2016 10:10 am |
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Loyal
"no rank"
Joined: Wed Nov 29, 2006 8:43 pm
Posts: 24502
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Re: Contenders 2016 I have doubt Hanks and Eastwood will be able to overcome the very basic nature of the story.
Even with Best Picture nominations, Eastwood couldn't crack Best Director with American Sniper and despite a strong performance, Hanks missed out on Best Actor for Captain Phillips.
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| Mon Jan 25, 2016 11:08 am |
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Loyal
"no rank"
Joined: Wed Nov 29, 2006 8:43 pm
Posts: 24502
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Re: Contenders 2016
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| Mon Jan 25, 2016 10:09 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm
Posts: 68318
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Re: Contenders 2016 Funny how Birth of a Nation is not in your original list, Mr. "I Know Every Nominee a Year Prior". _________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG
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| Fri Jan 29, 2016 10:14 am |
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Loyal
"no rank"
Joined: Wed Nov 29, 2006 8:43 pm
Posts: 24502
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Re: Contenders 2016 Algren wrote: Funny how Birth of a Nation is not in your original list, Mr. "I Know Every Nominee a Year Prior". Loyal wrote: I'm hard pressed to think of a single year that at least 75% of the contenders weren't known by January. This time last year the only major film I didn't see happening was Mad Max. <Looks at Calendar> The same wisdom applies to Jan 2016 as it applied to Jan 2015 and every January I can remember. Birth of a Nation falls under that annual Sundance darling.  So yeah, it's pretty much "I Know Every Nominee a Year Prior." Not sure I see the gotcha there.
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| Fri Jan 29, 2016 11:06 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm
Posts: 68318
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Re: Contenders 2016 No gotcha. I just find it funny that it's not in your opening post, Mr. Know It All. _________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG
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| Fri Jan 29, 2016 11:09 am |
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Loyal
"no rank"
Joined: Wed Nov 29, 2006 8:43 pm
Posts: 24502
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Re: Contenders 2016 Algren wrote: No gotcha. I just find it funny that it's not in your opening post, Mr. Know It All. I guess? I did add some films 2 weeks later, I would also add Birth of a Nation to the list, in addition to Fences which is now being rushed into production to hit by December. The argument hasn't changed though, if anything Birth strengthens the idea that by January, the majority of contenders are known. Cannes and later Toronto, etc, will sometimes add an unknown film or two into the BP mix. Again, I think this ties back to the idea that you don't really follow the award season (not a condemnation). I have to constantly remind myself that when I read your posts in this sub-forum. It gets a little difficult sometimes because there doesn't seem to be much preexisting knowledge on even the basics of award season, so it dampens the ability to have substantive discussions.
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| Fri Jan 29, 2016 11:19 am |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm
Posts: 63026
Location: Tonight... YOU!
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Re: Contenders 2016 Technically since the Oscars haven't happened yet, Loyal still has a few weeks to edit the first post and still be correct regarding the "year prior" guideline.
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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| Fri Jan 29, 2016 1:06 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm
Posts: 68318
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Re: Contenders 2016 BIG EXPLANATION.  _________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG
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| Sat Jan 30, 2016 7:07 am |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am
Posts: 40491
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Re: Contenders 2016 So Birth of a Nation is probably going to win then?
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| Sun Jan 31, 2016 1:57 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm
Posts: 68318
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Re: Contenders 2016 A lot can happen in a year. But it all depends on the blacks and whether they can keep the #PoorUs trend alive until next year's Oscars.
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| Sun Jan 31, 2016 2:47 am |
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Jedi Master Carr
Extraordinary
Joined: Fri Nov 11, 2005 9:51 pm
Posts: 11637
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Re: Contenders 2016 Magnus wrote: lol birth of a nation ain't winning BP. who knows at this stage, it could. It will depend on lot of factors. I think it will get a Best picture nod and probably several nominations.
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| Sun Jan 31, 2016 3:33 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm
Posts: 68318
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Re: Contenders 2016 Magnus wrote: lol birth of a nation ain't winning BP. And what is, Loyal mk.2? _________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG
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| Sun Jan 31, 2016 3:36 am |
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