Hope this one has better legs than the last one though at this point catching up to the first one seems like a big ask. There is an extra day this time from dates perspective which would help it a bit IMO.

I still think 1 billion will be reached. This will probably post better numbers in Japan and could easily have better legs after New Year's Eve (given AUJ's were absolutely atrocious).

Hobbit 2 had huge 5 day OW in Poland. It made more than 18.5M PLN (over $6.2M ) over 5 days. Weekend numbers were more than 13M PLN (over $4.3M) which is new opening record for local currency. ( Probably also OW record in $ )
5 day admissions are over 850K. ( Not even close to Shrek 3 numbers )

Smaug's OD here in Oz was $5.4m - down 8% from AUJ's $5.9m. Very strong and second all time Boxing Day gross (Top 5 are all Middle Earth films).

With AUJ's legs it would end up around $40m total (AUD).

The latest update at BO.com says $483.4m before the weekend so almost $60m from the weekdays. The first movie grossed $58.6m this weekend with $562.8m OS total. With the same weekend it DOS should get close to $542m OS total and just $20m behind the previous movies OS total at the same time. It should be able to catch up to first movie soon at this pace.

http://www.boxoffice.com/latest-news/20 ... r-overseas

I still can't see it making a billion. Not with such a bad domestic tally.

Domestic tally sucks

It would eventually end up with $270m total which should be fine IMO. The difference is not big enough that OS grosses cannot cover. For instance this movie is almost equal to previous movies OS total without Japan that added another $20m. It will still be a slugfest but it will reach $1b mark IMO.

These films are a beast OS, it should join IM3 as the only 1 billion films from 2013. The last Hobbit film will probably be the only billion dollar film from 2014.

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
$135.4 million / $209 million
$97.4 million [56 markets] ($278.4 million) / $406 million
$99.7 million [62 markets] ($424.8 million) / $616.1 million
$58 million [64 markets] ($527 million) / $756.6 million (Est.)

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
$138 million / $222.6 million
$96 million [59 markets] ($288.5 million) / $438.6 million
$106.5 million [62 markets] ($464 million) / $686.7 million
$57.1 million [65 markets] ($561 million) / $824.8 million

Again a MUCH better drop than AUJ. The OS gap has reduced a bit as well and hopefully like all weekends it increase with actuals

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
$135.4 million / $209 million
$97.4 million [56 markets] ($278.4 million) / $406 million
$99.7 million [62 markets] ($424.8 million) / $616.1 million
$58 million [64 markets] ($527 million) / $756.6 million
$22.2 million [62 markets] ($566 million) / $802.8 million (Est.)

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
$138 million / $222.6 million
$96 million [59 markets] ($288.5 million) / $438.6 million
$106.5 million [62 markets] ($464 million) / $686.7 million
$57.1 million [65 markets] ($561 million) / $824.8 million
$26.2 million ($609.3 million) / $887.5 million

Kinda bummed that it did lesser this weekend but the search for $1b still continues.

Jack Sparrow - Smaug is running about 10% behind the pace of AUJ here in Oz. This is BO up until yesterday..

No	WIR	Title	$	%	Total $
1	3	FROZEN (PG), WALT DISNEY [460/ $6,806]	3,130,836	-35%	22,698,380
2	3	THE HOBBIT: THE DESOLATION OF SMAUG (M), WARNER BROS [575/ $5,146]	2,959,024	-52%	31,483,305
3	1	THE BOOK THIEF (PG), FOX [241/ $10,075]	2,427,988	N/A	2,615,843
4	1	SAVING MR. BANKS (PG), WALT DISNEY [272/ $8,301]	2,257,869	N/A	2,411,072
5	3	THE SECRET LIFE OF WALTER MITTY (PG), FOX [266/ $5,497]	1,462,313	-46%	10,982,250
6	4	ANCHORMAN 2 (M), PARAMOUNT [238/ $4,706]	1,120,007	-51%	16,143,837
7	1	FREE BIRDS (G), ROADSHOW [277/ $3,952]	1,094,800	N/A	1,251,238
8	3	PHILOMENA (M), EONE /HOPSCOTCH [126/ $6,622]	834,425	-37%	5,849,399
9	3	WALKING WITH DINOSAURS 3D (PG), FOX [358/ $2,288]	819,239	-46%	3,908,614
10	2	AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY (MA15+), ROADSHOW [219/ $3,111]	681,408	-53%	3,238,090
11	5	AMERICAN HUSTLE (M), ROADSHOW [148/ $4,571]	676,579	-45%	10,205,408
12	3	THE RAILWAY MAN (M), TRANSMISSION/PARAMOUNT [123/ $4,668]	574,143	-44%	4,209,242
13	8	THE HUNGER GAMES: CATCHING FIRE (M), ROADSHOW [120/ $3,917]	470,071	-44%	38,482,127
14	6	CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF MEATBALLS 2 (G), SONY PICTURES [160/ $2,428]	388,490	-47%	11,222,587
15	1	VEERAM (MA15+), AYNGARAN VIDEO [7/ $8,830]	61,811	N/A	61,811
16	15	GRAVITY (M), WARNER BROS [17/ $3,372]	57,317	55%	21,132,669
17	5	THE GILDED CAGE (M), PALACE [16/ $3,089]	49,422	-62%	711,440
18	1	LAN KWAI FONG 3 (MA15+), CHINALION FILM [8/ $5,859]	46,868	N/A	46,868
19	16	STORIES WE TELL (M), PALACE [2/ $22,705]	45,409	N/A	685,508
20	3	GREAT WHITE SHARK 3D (G), IMAX [2/ $16,783]	33,566	16%	103,929

This table brought to you by Excel2BB Converter. Created by Krem for World of KJ

Jack Sparrow - Smaug is running about 10% behind the pace of AUJ here in Oz. This is BO up until yesterday..

No	WIR	Title	$	%	Total $
1	3	FROZEN (PG), WALT DISNEY [460/ $6,806]	3,130,836	-35%	22,698,380
2	3	THE HOBBIT: THE DESOLATION OF SMAUG (M), WARNER BROS [575/ $5,146]	2,959,024	-52%	31,483,305
3	1	THE BOOK THIEF (PG), FOX [241/ $10,075]	2,427,988	N/A	2,615,843
4	1	SAVING MR. BANKS (PG), WALT DISNEY [272/ $8,301]	2,257,869	N/A	2,411,072
5	3	THE SECRET LIFE OF WALTER MITTY (PG), FOX [266/ $5,497]	1,462,313	-46%	10,982,250
6	4	ANCHORMAN 2 (M), PARAMOUNT [238/ $4,706]	1,120,007	-51%	16,143,837
7	1	FREE BIRDS (G), ROADSHOW [277/ $3,952]	1,094,800	N/A	1,251,238
8	3	PHILOMENA (M), EONE /HOPSCOTCH [126/ $6,622]	834,425	-37%	5,849,399
9	3	WALKING WITH DINOSAURS 3D (PG), FOX [358/ $2,288]	819,239	-46%	3,908,614
10	2	AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY (MA15+), ROADSHOW [219/ $3,111]	681,408	-53%	3,238,090
11	5	AMERICAN HUSTLE (M), ROADSHOW [148/ $4,571]	676,579	-45%	10,205,408
12	3	THE RAILWAY MAN (M), TRANSMISSION/PARAMOUNT [123/ $4,668]	574,143	-44%	4,209,242
13	8	THE HUNGER GAMES: CATCHING FIRE (M), ROADSHOW [120/ $3,917]	470,071	-44%	38,482,127
14	6	CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF MEATBALLS 2 (G), SONY PICTURES [160/ $2,428]	388,490	-47%	11,222,587
15	1	VEERAM (MA15+), AYNGARAN VIDEO [7/ $8,830]	61,811	N/A	61,811
16	15	GRAVITY (M), WARNER BROS [17/ $3,372]	57,317	55%	21,132,669
17	5	THE GILDED CAGE (M), PALACE [16/ $3,089]	49,422	-62%	711,440
18	1	LAN KWAI FONG 3 (MA15+), CHINALION FILM [8/ $5,859]	46,868	N/A	46,868
19	16	STORIES WE TELL (M), PALACE [2/ $22,705]	45,409	N/A	685,508
20	3	GREAT WHITE SHARK 3D (G), IMAX [2/ $16,783]	33,566	16%	103,929

This table brought to you by Excel2BB Converter. Created by Krem for World of KJ

Nice chart Gez. Great to know Frozen doing SO WELL.

Yeah it deserves it. Loved it. It will continue to do well for the next 2-3 weeks as well due to summer/school holidays.

So in the Southern Hemisphere, Frozen is clearly not doing what frozen things do in summer...

I'm really not sure Smaug can get to $1b, unless it increases over the first in Japan and/or China. Frozen is definitely eating into its OS (and CF has also been nipping at its heels).

If AUJ had been up against a Frozen instead of Wreck-It Ralph/Guardians, I'm not sure it would have reached $1b either.

TABA's family competition will be Big Hero 6 and Home, so it may well do more OS than DOS.

I predicted $255M domestic and $700M OS, so I'm pretty good.

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
$135.4 million / $209 million
$97.4 million [56 markets] ($278.4 million) / $406 million
$99.7 million [62 markets] ($424.8 million) / $616.1 million
$58 million [64 markets] ($527 million) / $756.6 million
$22.2 million [62 markets] ($566 million) / $802.8 million
$10.9 million ($585 million) / $833.7 million (est.)

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
$138 million / $222.6 million
$96 million [59 markets] ($288.5 million) / $438.6 million
$106.5 million [62 markets] ($464 million) / $686.7 million
$57.1 million [65 markets] ($561 million) / $824.8 million
$26.2 million ($609.3 million) / $887.5 million
$13.2 million ($632.2 million) / $919.6 million

China (Feb. 21st) and Japan (Feb. 28th) are the last remaining markets for The Desolation of Smaug.

So it's still going to get $900m worldwide, which is fantastic for any franchise to have all 6 installments make $900m.

Hmm...looks like $1b is not going to happen. It wasn't able to get as much from the remaining markets as the last one did including Japan. Maybe $950m WW if gets better holds from here on.

looks like my "hobbit 2 less than TTT worldwide" prediction was correct!

Not too fast. It still has China and Japan.

Every million it makes from now on will be closing the domestic gap on The Two Towers because it has already outgrossed in internationally.

It seems that the studio has realized that you get bums on seats if you actually show the dragon. Hence this Chinese poster:



The US marketing focused on the characters and the Hobbit name, whereas it should have been showing the dragon, and not keeping him a secret. The Japanese poster also showed the dragon. They pretty much fucked up the US marketing machine by thinking that people cherished not seeing the dragon until they saw the movie, but with nothing else to interest them in the movie (or differentiate it from the first), they merely didn't attend.

It will probably do well in China.