The Aviator Will Win Best Picture
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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Maverikk wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: Depends on your definition of "far more" When something is the clear frontrunner.
Okay, then "no". Let's just take Morgan Freeman as an example. He hasn't won more so far than, say Thomas Haden Chruch or Clive Owen. I don't see how he is a "clear frontrunner". I think it is just a general consensus because he is well-overdue and seems the logical choice.
Having said that, I personally predict Morgan Freeman to win, but I don't see him being a clear frontrunner. In fact, I think the chances of Owen, Church and Freeman are almost equal at this point.
Just a short breakdown
Morgan Freeman:
Screen Actors Guild win
Vancouver Film Critics Circle win
Thomas Haden Church:
National Board of Review win
Boston Society of Film Critics Awards win
Broadcast Film Critics Association Awards win
Chicago Film Critics Association Awards win
Dallas-Forth Worth Film Critics Association Awards win
Florida Film Critics Circle Awards win
Kansas City Film Critics Circle Awards win
National Society of Film Critics Awards win
Phoenix Film Critics Society Awards win
San Francisco Film Critics Circle win
Seattle Film Critics Awards win
Southeastern Film Critics Association Awards win
Clive Owen:
BAFTA Awards win
Boston Society of Film Critics Awards 2nd place
Golden Globes win
Las Vegas Film Critics Society Awards win
New York Film Critics Circle Awards win
Toronto Film Critics Association Awards win
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Sat Feb 26, 2005 6:05 pm |
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Anonymous
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I have a 4/4/2 win split for Sideways/Aviator/Baby. Throw in an acting win for Ray and score win for Finding Neverland, no one is going home empty handed.
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Sat Feb 26, 2005 6:06 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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Virginia Madsen better doesn't win, though! :razz:
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Sat Feb 26, 2005 6:09 pm |
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Maverikk
Award Winning Bastard
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:03 am Posts: 15310 Location: Slumming at KJ
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Dr. Lecter wrote:
Okay, then "no". Let's just take Morgan Freeman as an example. He hasn't won more so far than, say Thomas Haden Chruch or Clive Owen. I don't see how he is a "clear frontrunner". I think it is just a general consensus because he is well-overdue and seems the logical choice.
Having said that, I personally predict Morgan Freeman to win, but I don't see him being a clear frontrunner. In fact, I think the chances of Owen, Church and Freeman are almost equal at this point.
Just a short breakdown
I'll stop you right there, so you don't start posting critics awards, as if they vote in the Oscars. #-o
Let's just see how much of a frontrunner it is with those who don't do such things...
http://oscarwatch.com/Predictions04/
After you've read that one over...
http://www.moviecitynews.com/awards/200 ... dicts.html
Now, if you want to tell me and ALL of these experts that Million Dollar Baby , Clint Eastwood for director, Hilary Swank, and Morgan Freeman aren't clearly the frontrunners, and if you want to try to pad your argument with critic's awards, then you go right ahead and do it. It won't be me looking silly. \:D/
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Sat Feb 26, 2005 6:15 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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How many experts exactly did predict Adrien Brody to win Best Actor? Or Halle Berry to win Best Actress?
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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Sat Feb 26, 2005 6:18 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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Moreover, going by these predictions Million Dollar Baby is by far not such a sure thing as Morgan Freeman and Hilary Swank are. They are mentioned by far and away more than the movie they star in.
Also, how come there is a Best Original Screenplay prediction for Ray made by one of the "experts" even though Ray is not even nominated in that category? 
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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Sat Feb 26, 2005 6:22 pm |
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Maverikk
Award Winning Bastard
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:03 am Posts: 15310 Location: Slumming at KJ
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Dr. Lecter wrote: How many experts exactly did predict Adrien Brody to win Best Actor? Or Halle Berry to win Best Actress?
A lot picked Halle, if I recall, but with Brody, he wasn't the frontrunner. A front runner does not mean a winner, but there is no denying that M$B is the clear fronrunner in those categories I named. The proof is in those two links I posted.
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Sat Feb 26, 2005 6:22 pm |
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TonyMontana
Undisputed WoKJ DVD King
Joined: Thu Oct 14, 2004 8:55 am Posts: 16278 Location: Counting the 360 ways I love my Xbox
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Barring a miracle, I won't have the time to catch the Aviator before the Oscars tomorrow. I was hoping to catch that one, M$B, Sideways, and Ray before the Oscars, but only managed to get to 3 of them within the last week.
While I'm rooting for Sideways, I'll go out on a limb and put my money on the Aviator. But, so far I wouldn't be upset if any of the nominees won. Kind of a different Oscar year for me, as there was no movie that completely blew me away, but none that I hated either.
If only Anchorman had been nomiated... The Academy members are simply blind to the true masterpieces!
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Sat Feb 26, 2005 6:37 pm |
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Lucky
The Incredible Hulk
Joined: Sat Jan 29, 2005 6:50 am Posts: 514
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I'm predicting The Aviator will win best picture. The Aviator won the ACE last Sunday which is one of the oldest and most important guilds. Winning the ACE is important as it signals tech support and the techs make up the largest group in AMPAS. If techies are going for The Aviator the film will have more then enough support to win best picture. ACE+ most noms= best picture win. I also think The Aviator is the best film of the year.
BTW - Mike, The Aviator has three acting noms Leonardo DiCaprio (lead actor), Cate Blanchett (supp actress), Alan Alda
(supp actor)
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Sun Feb 27, 2005 1:29 am |
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MikeQ.
The French Dutch Boy
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 8:28 pm Posts: 10266 Location: Mordor, Middle Earth
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Lucky wrote: BTW - Mike, The Aviator has three acting noms Leonardo DiCaprio (lead actor), Cate Blanchett (supp actress), Alan Alda (supp actor)
Oh, yeah, Alan Alda actually got a nom! The Aviator has more actor support than I thought. Further helps my statement that it will win Best Picture.
PEACE, Mike 
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Sun Feb 27, 2005 1:41 am |
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Lucky
The Incredible Hulk
Joined: Sat Jan 29, 2005 6:50 am Posts: 514
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MIke,
The Aviator also won 3 awards from VES (Video Effects Society). The Aviator tied Spiderman 2 for the most wins from that guild. Aviator's guild wins were PGA, ACE, CAS and VES.
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Sun Feb 27, 2005 2:19 am |
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MikeQ.
The French Dutch Boy
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 8:28 pm Posts: 10266 Location: Mordor, Middle Earth
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More guild support for The Aviator, as it wins Best Sound Effects Editing at the Sound Effects Editor's Guild (MPSE's)! All pointing towards support for a Best Picture win.
PEACE, Mike 
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Sun Feb 27, 2005 5:38 pm |
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kypade
Kypade
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2004 10:53 pm Posts: 7908
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Maverikk wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote:
Okay, then "no". Let's just take Morgan Freeman as an example. He hasn't won more so far than, say Thomas Haden Chruch or Clive Owen. I don't see how he is a "clear frontrunner". I think it is just a general consensus because he is well-overdue and seems the logical choice.
Having said that, I personally predict Morgan Freeman to win, but I don't see him being a clear frontrunner. In fact, I think the chances of Owen, Church and Freeman are almost equal at this point.
Just a short breakdown I'll stop you right there, so you don't start posting critics awards, as if they vote in the Oscars. #-o wait a second...do all of the following vote in the oscars? if not, l fail to see the difference...if so, nevermind what l'm about to say: Quote: Let's just see how much of a frontrunner it is with those who don't do such things... http://oscarwatch.com/Predictions04/After you've read that one over... http://www.moviecitynews.com/awards/200 ... dicts.htmlNow, if you want to tell me and ALL of these experts that Million Dollar Baby , Clint Eastwood for director, Hilary Swank, and Morgan Freeman aren't clearly the frontrunners, and if you want to try to pad your argument with critic's awards, then you go right ahead and do it. It won't be me looking silly. \:D/ Church has won a lot of critics awards, with many people voting in each...but none of that matters. however, 30 or so "experts" say that mdb is gonna win and alla sudden it matters imensely? l mean, until we have links in which the 6k or so VOTERS say who they want to win, l would think Critc Awards are just as good an indication as "experts' predictions"
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Sun Feb 27, 2005 5:49 pm |
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Rod
Extra on the Ordinary
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:50 pm Posts: 12821
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Dr. Lecter wrote: How many experts exactly did predict Adrien Brody to win Best Actor? Or Halle Berry to win Best Actress?
Halle was my personal pick tow in the Oscar and I wasn't alone (not my pick as in i thought she should have won, but as in i thought she would win, before the SAGs were even awarded, and at this point I didn't even really follow the awards very closely.)
A few picked Brody, but yeah that was a surprise. surprises happen. They might happen tonight.
Anyway, what are we discussing? I dont think Aviator will win. And I dont think critics awards should really count for predicting who will win. Yes, they help a bit, but they're not very good predictors.
(P.S. I think Sideways will win either supporting actor OR supporting actress)
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Sun Feb 27, 2005 5:56 pm |
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Lucky
The Incredible Hulk
Joined: Sat Jan 29, 2005 6:50 am Posts: 514
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The Aviator took the last guild award yesterday. Aviator won PGA, ACE, CAS, VES and MPSE. Five guilds which is the most for any film. The Aviator should have a lot of tech support in AMPAS.
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Sun Feb 27, 2005 6:28 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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Kypade wrote: Maverikk wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote:
Okay, then "no". Let's just take Morgan Freeman as an example. He hasn't won more so far than, say Thomas Haden Chruch or Clive Owen. I don't see how he is a "clear frontrunner". I think it is just a general consensus because he is well-overdue and seems the logical choice.
Having said that, I personally predict Morgan Freeman to win, but I don't see him being a clear frontrunner. In fact, I think the chances of Owen, Church and Freeman are almost equal at this point.
Just a short breakdown I'll stop you right there, so you don't start posting critics awards, as if they vote in the Oscars. #-o wait a second...do all of the following vote in the oscars? if not, l fail to see the difference...if so, nevermind what l'm about to say: Quote: Let's just see how much of a frontrunner it is with those who don't do such things... http://oscarwatch.com/Predictions04/After you've read that one over... http://www.moviecitynews.com/awards/200 ... dicts.htmlNow, if you want to tell me and ALL of these experts that Million Dollar Baby , Clint Eastwood for director, Hilary Swank, and Morgan Freeman aren't clearly the frontrunners, and if you want to try to pad your argument with critic's awards, then you go right ahead and do it. It won't be me looking silly. \:D/ Church has won a lot of critics awards, with many people voting in each...but none of that matters. however, 30 or so "experts" say that mdb is gonna win and alla sudden it matters imensely? l mean, until we have links in which the 6k or so VOTERS say who they want to win, l would think Critc Awards are just as good an indication as "experts' predictions"
Yep, exactly
Especially, as I said above, considering one of these "experts" picked Ray to win Best Original Screenplay even though the movie isn't even nominated in that category.
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Sun Feb 27, 2005 7:32 pm |
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Maverikk
Award Winning Bastard
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:03 am Posts: 15310 Location: Slumming at KJ
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Kypade wrote: Church has won a lot of critics awards, with many people voting in each...but none of that matters. however, 30 or so "experts" say that mdb is gonna win and alla sudden it matters imensely? l mean, until we have links in which the 6k or so VOTERS say who they want to win, l would think Critc Awards are just as good an indication as "experts' predictions"
You see, one is based on personal preference of critics, and the other is based on analysis from people who know the Oscars well. See the difference? I hope that you do.
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Sun Feb 27, 2005 7:40 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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Maverikk wrote: Kypade wrote: Church has won a lot of critics awards, with many people voting in each...but none of that matters. however, 30 or so "experts" say that mdb is gonna win and alla sudden it matters imensely? l mean, until we have links in which the 6k or so VOTERS say who they want to win, l would think Critc Awards are just as good an indication as "experts' predictions" You see, one is based on personal preference of critics, and the other is based on analysis from people who know the Oscars well. See the difference? I hope that you do.
I think you and I don't know the Oscars any less than these people do. At least we both don't predict movies in categories that they are not even nominated in, do we?
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Sun Feb 27, 2005 7:55 pm |
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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm Posts: 48677 Location: Arlington, VA
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So, how about that Aviator winning Best Picture? I was totally surprised when it, you know, didn't.
All in good fun, of course! Because I'd be taking some ribbing if M$B had lost :wink:
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Mon Feb 28, 2005 1:16 am |
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BennyBlanco
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2004 3:51 pm Posts: 1102 Location: The Bronx
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Well, I was wrong and I am man enough to admit it.
Still hard to accept though [-( .
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Mon Feb 28, 2005 1:20 am |
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kypade
Kypade
Joined: Sat Oct 30, 2004 10:53 pm Posts: 7908
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BennyBlanco wrote: Well, I was wrong and I am man enough to admit it.
Still hard to accept though [-( . l think it would be pretty hard NOT to admit it...especially if someone quoted you...
But l agree...didn't for a second think The Aviator was gonna lose. whata shock.
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Mon Feb 28, 2005 1:26 am |
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lovemerox
Forum General
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 10:16 pm Posts: 6499 Location: Down along the dixie line
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Libs wrote: So, how about that Aviator winning Best Picture? I was totally surprised when it, you know, didn't.
All in good fun, of course! Because I'd be taking some ribbing if M$B had lost :wink:
Sucks that sideways didnt win....O well
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Mon Feb 28, 2005 1:28 am |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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I was wrong and in a way gladly so.
I wish Sideways had won, but oh well....
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Mon Feb 28, 2005 1:33 am |
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A. G.
Draughty
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:23 am Posts: 13347
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Oh well, the MDB wins will just fuel the cycnicism that the way to win Oscars is to do movies about people with illnesses/disaiblities and related topics.
I guess the Clinton era was a fluke when movies I actually liked got nominated and some won. So far in the 00's, it's mostly a streak of forgettables. Do people really remember and care about Chicago or A Beautiful Mind? Nobody I've met, though probably someone out there does.
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Mon Feb 28, 2005 1:56 am |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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Archie Gates wrote: Oh well, the MDB wins will just fuel the cycnicism that the way to win Oscars is to do movies about people with illnesses/disaiblities and related topics.
Well, Howard Hughes did have an illness/disability. 
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Mon Feb 28, 2005 1:58 am |
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