Okay, then "no". Let's just take Morgan Freeman as an example. He hasn't won more so far than, say Thomas Haden Chruch or Clive Owen. I don't see how he is a "clear frontrunner". I think it is just a general consensus because he is well-overdue and seems the logical choice.

Having said that, I personally predict Morgan Freeman to win, but I don't see him being a clear frontrunner. In fact, I think the chances of Owen, Church and Freeman are almost equal at this point.


Just a short breakdown

Morgan Freeman:

Screen Actors Guild win
Vancouver Film Critics Circle win


Thomas Haden Church:

National Board of Review win
Boston Society of Film Critics Awards win
Broadcast Film Critics Association Awards win
Chicago Film Critics Association Awards win
Dallas-Forth Worth Film Critics Association Awards win
Florida Film Critics Circle Awards win
Kansas City Film Critics Circle Awards win
National Society of Film Critics Awards win
Phoenix Film Critics Society Awards win
San Francisco Film Critics Circle win
Seattle Film Critics Awards win
Southeastern Film Critics Association Awards win


Clive Owen:

BAFTA Awards win
Boston Society of Film Critics Awards 2nd place
Golden Globes win
Las Vegas Film Critics Society Awards win
New York Film Critics Circle Awards win
Toronto Film Critics Association Awards win

I have a 4/4/2 win split for Sideways/Aviator/Baby. Throw in an acting win for Ray and score win for Finding Neverland, no one is going home empty handed.

Virginia Madsen better doesn't win, though! :razz:

I'll stop you right there, so you don't start posting critics awards, as if they vote in the Oscars. #-o

Let's just see how much of a frontrunner it is with those who don't do such things...

http://oscarwatch.com/Predictions04/

After you've read that one over...

http://www.moviecitynews.com/awards/200 ... dicts.html

Now, if you want to tell me and ALL of these experts that Million Dollar Baby , Clint Eastwood for director, Hilary Swank, and Morgan Freeman aren't clearly the frontrunners, and if you want to try to pad your argument with critic's awards, then you go right ahead and do it. It won't be me looking silly. \:D/

How many experts exactly did predict Adrien Brody to win Best Actor? Or Halle Berry to win Best Actress?

Moreover, going by these predictions Million Dollar Baby is by far not such a sure thing as Morgan Freeman and Hilary Swank are. They are mentioned by far and away more than the movie they star in.

Also, how come there is a Best Original Screenplay prediction for Ray made by one of the "experts" even though Ray is not even nominated in that category?

A lot picked Halle, if I recall, but with Brody, he wasn't the frontrunner. A front runner does not mean a winner, but there is no denying that M$B is the clear fronrunner in those categories I named. The proof is in those two links I posted.

Barring a miracle, I won't have the time to catch the Aviator before the Oscars tomorrow. I was hoping to catch that one, M$B, Sideways, and Ray before the Oscars, but only managed to get to 3 of them within the last week.

While I'm rooting for Sideways, I'll go out on a limb and put my money on the Aviator. But, so far I wouldn't be upset if any of the nominees won. Kind of a different Oscar year for me, as there was no movie that completely blew me away, but none that I hated either.

If only Anchorman had been nomiated... The Academy members are simply blind to the true masterpieces!

I'm predicting The Aviator will win best picture. The Aviator won the ACE last Sunday which is one of the oldest and most important guilds. Winning the ACE is important as it signals tech support and the techs make up the largest group in AMPAS. If techies are going for The Aviator the film will have more then enough support to win best picture. ACE+ most noms= best picture win. I also think The Aviator is the best film of the year.

BTW - Mike, The Aviator has three acting noms Leonardo DiCaprio (lead actor), Cate Blanchett (supp actress), Alan Alda
(supp actor)

Oh, yeah, Alan Alda actually got a nom! The Aviator has more actor support than I thought. Further helps my statement that it will win Best Picture.

PEACE, Mike

MIke,

The Aviator also won 3 awards from VES (Video Effects Society). The Aviator tied Spiderman 2 for the most wins from that guild. Aviator's guild wins were PGA, ACE, CAS and VES.

More guild support for The Aviator, as it wins Best Sound Effects Editing at the Sound Effects Editor's Guild (MPSE's)! All pointing towards support for a Best Picture win.

PEACE, Mike

wait a second...do all of the following vote in the oscars? if not, l fail to see the difference...if so, nevermind what l'm about to say:
Church has won a lot of critics awards, with many people voting in each...but none of that matters. however, 30 or so "experts" say that mdb is gonna win and alla sudden it matters imensely? l mean, until we have links in which the 6k or so VOTERS say who they want to win, l would think Critc Awards are just as good an indication as "experts' predictions"

Halle was my personal pick tow in the Oscar and I wasn't alone (not my pick as in i thought she should have won, but as in i thought she would win, before the SAGs were even awarded, and at this point I didn't even really follow the awards very closely.)

A few picked Brody, but yeah that was a surprise. surprises happen. They might happen tonight.

Anyway, what are we discussing? I dont think Aviator will win. And I dont think critics awards should really count for predicting who will win. Yes, they help a bit, but they're not very good predictors.

(P.S. I think Sideways will win either supporting actor OR supporting actress)

The Aviator took the last guild award yesterday. Aviator won PGA, ACE, CAS, VES and MPSE. Five guilds which is the most for any film. The Aviator should have a lot of tech support in AMPAS.

Yep, exactly

Especially, as I said above, considering one of these "experts" picked Ray to win Best Original Screenplay even though the movie isn't even nominated in that category.

You see, one is based on personal preference of critics, and the other is based on analysis from people who know the Oscars well. See the difference? I hope that you do.

I think you and I don't know the Oscars any less than these people do. At least we both don't predict movies in categories that they are not even nominated in, do we?

So, how about that Aviator winning Best Picture? I was totally surprised when it, you know, didn't.

All in good fun, of course! Because I'd be taking some ribbing if M$B had lost :wink:

Well, I was wrong and I am man enough to admit it.


Still hard to accept though [-( .

l think it would be pretty hard NOT to admit it...especially if someone quoted you...

But l agree...didn't for a second think The Aviator was gonna lose. whata shock.

Sucks that sideways didnt win....O well

I was wrong and in a way gladly so.

I wish Sideways had won, but oh well....

Oh well, the MDB wins will just fuel the cycnicism that the way to win Oscars is to do movies about people with illnesses/disaiblities and related topics.

I guess the Clinton era was a fluke when movies I actually liked got nominated and some won. So far in the 00's, it's mostly a streak of forgettables. Do people really remember and care about Chicago or A Beautiful Mind? Nobody I've met, though probably someone out there does.

Well, Howard Hughes did have an illness/disability.