The Avatar Prediction|Tracking Thread/ (Aug. 27 re-release)
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36949
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 Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
This is just dump writer predicting that a simple math of mine did days back. Also it is not yet official since the writer says that the information is from sources and the number should be 1.05B soagg wrote: Its a lock to get 1B WW by this weekend . Let us do some math being as modest as possible Current stand Domestic: $268,886,074 Foreign: $476,192,825 (As of data collected on Dec 29 i.e. Monday's numbers) Worldwide: $745,078,899 Keyser Söze wrote: this deserve to be posted here as well. Avatar's international for Wednesday was $36.9M, down only 6% from Tuesday, making the foreign cume now $525.3M. So the worldwide total ending Wednesday was $794.1M. It has now crossed $800M today. http://www.deadline.com/hollywood/ According to deadline.com - Till Wednesday total is 794.1M Domestic Estimates (Modest) Thursday - 18M (could be up 1-2M) Weekend - 60M (could be up 1-10M) Domestic Total = 78M (could be up 1-12M) Foreign Estimates (Modest) Thursday - 30M (i.e. 18% drop considering NYE) Weekend - 100M (Friday-Sunday 30M that is current week's lowest WW) Foreign Total - 130M (could be up 1-20M) Just add 794 + 78 + 130 = 1002M With all the numbers it seems that this number could be up by 1-32M. I think it has a pretty good chance to cross 1B this weekend I predicted this on Thursday itself. Let us wait for the official figures now 
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Sun Jan 03, 2010 8:56 am |
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Enki
Full Fledged Member
Joined: Tue Dec 29, 2009 2:20 pm Posts: 88 Location: Chicago
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 Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
soagg wrote: This is just dump writer predicting that a simple math of mine did days back. Also it is not yet official since the writer says that the information is from sources and the number should be 1.05B soagg wrote: Its a lock to get 1B WW by this weekend . Let us do some math being as modest as possible Current stand Domestic: $268,886,074 Foreign: $476,192,825 (As of data collected on Dec 29 i.e. Monday's numbers) Worldwide: $745,078,899 Keyser Söze wrote: this deserve to be posted here as well. Avatar's international for Wednesday was $36.9M, down only 6% from Tuesday, making the foreign cume now $525.3M. So the worldwide total ending Wednesday was $794.1M. It has now crossed $800M today. http://www.deadline.com/hollywood/ According to deadline.com - Till Wednesday total is 794.1M Domestic Estimates (Modest) Thursday - 18M (could be up 1-2M) Weekend - 60M (could be up 1-10M) Domestic Total = 78M (could be up 1-12M) Foreign Estimates (Modest) Thursday - 30M (i.e. 18% drop considering NYE) Weekend - 100M (Friday-Sunday 30M that is current week's lowest WW) Foreign Total - 130M (could be up 1-20M) Just add 794 + 78 + 130 = 1002M With all the numbers it seems that this number could be up by 1-32M. I think it has a pretty good chance to cross 1B this weekend I predicted this on Thursday itself. Let us wait for the official figures now  For me, this "rumor" in several websites, plus yours and my predictions, makes it official TDK is biting the dust today http://www.deadline.com/hollywood/new-years-day-another-big-avatar-payday-the-blind-side-crosses-200m-domestic/http://www.examiner.com/examiner/x-1486-LA-Personalities-Examiner~y2010m1d3-Movie-of-the-world-Avatar-crosses-1-biilion-mark-at-the-global-box-officehttp://www.gossipcop.com/avatar-soaring-toward-1-billion/I know. It is happening WAY TOO FAST!
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Sun Jan 03, 2010 9:11 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36949
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 Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Yes it is. I mean look at this it is like a giant and when everyone says that this can be achieved only because of higher ticket prices then there should be a number of movies breaking the records next year. As far as I am seeing IM2, Shrek3 can come close to 1B since they already have an established fan base. I bet no one even sequels are coming even near to this next year
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Sun Jan 03, 2010 9:51 am |
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baumer
Star Trek XI
Joined: Thu Apr 24, 2008 2:48 pm Posts: 343
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 Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Hey guys, it's been fun having so many of you over at Mojo for this historic time in film history. BJ, telemachos, mdana and a few others have graces us with your box office knowledge. I'm glad Avatanic has caught on here too....it's a cool name I made up a few weeks back and it fits perfectly. I'm in the Avatanic passing Titanic camp now. This thing is just a beast, Anyhoo, nice to chat with you guys again. 
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Sun Jan 03, 2010 10:38 am |
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Enki
Full Fledged Member
Joined: Tue Dec 29, 2009 2:20 pm Posts: 88 Location: Chicago
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 Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
EnKi wrote: I know. It is happening WAY TOO FAST! soagg wrote: Yes it is. I mean look at this it is like a giant and when everyone says that this can be achieved only because of higher ticket prices then there should be a number of movies breaking the records next year. As far as I am seeing IM2, Shrek3 can come close to 1B since they already have an established fan base. I bet no one even sequels are coming even near to this next year It seems that the industry is evolving. I read somewhere that the higher pricing for 3D theaters is good marketing. Indeed it is, I think they call it expanding the product line by means of packaging. 3D gives the customers another alternative to access the same product, at a premium price. Despite decreasing the total number of units sold, it is a wise strategy because it ultimately increases sales, hence profits. They do that in many industries. I bet JC and Fox run all the numbers before releasing Avatar in 3D. They are proving that the 3D-theater worldwide distribution network is cost-effective and gives returns so the industry will grow in that direction. The Academy has very good economic reasons to support Avatar until the Oscars. When the dust settles, Avatar would have beaten Titanic WW becoming the new benchmark for future blockbusters.
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Sun Jan 03, 2010 10:42 am |
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2001
Another You
Joined: Mon Apr 30, 2007 5:38 am Posts: 4556
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 Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
BJ wrote: Predict Avatanic's Domestic Total: round 2 update #5
2001 - 470m
round 2 so far, you have till sunday, post em eh. Raising mine to 565m which would be above Gump but below The Godfather adjusted. 
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Sun Jan 03, 2010 12:52 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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 Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
BJ wrote: Predict Avatanic's 3rd Wknd
EnKi - 81.5m +7% BJs Prediction: 70.90m -6% Mark66 - 68.055m -10% Jmovies - 68m -10% Captain_Cold - 68m -10% Soagg - 66.9m -11% BennyBlanco - 66.5m -12% Xiayun - 64.5m -15% DIB2 - 64.5m -15% Eventine 63.8m -15% LadiesMan217 - 64.3m -15% MG Casey - 64m -15% Keyser Soze - 62m -18% Flava'd - 62m -18% 2001 - 61m -19% Gamaur - 61m -19% Mesjarch - 60.5m -19% Solas - 60.5m -19% Lotan - 60.0m -20% Revatar - 58.67m -22% Telemachos - 57m -24% Chip Munkington - 56.8m -24%
~Average: 63.59m -15%
closed new range
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Sun Jan 03, 2010 1:21 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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 Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
BJ wrote: Predict Avatanic's Friday
BJs Prediction: 27.0m +80% Revatar - 26.5m 78% Captain_Cold - 26.0 +74% Keyser Soze - 26.0m +74 Soagg - 25.5m +70% Jmovies - 25.4m +70% Chip Munkington - 25.0 +68% LadiesMan217 - 23.8m +60% Eventine 23,4m +56% Mark66 - 22.725m +52% Mesjarch - 22.0m +47% Enki - 21.90m +47%
Average: 24.60m +65%
closed the battle is on between munk and jmovies, who will win 
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Sun Jan 03, 2010 1:25 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36949
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 Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
BJ wrote: BJ wrote: Predict Avatanic's Friday
BJs Prediction: 27.0m +80% Revatar - 26.5m 78% Captain_Cold - 26.0 +74% Keyser Soze - 26.0m +74 Soagg - 25.5m +70% Jmovies - 25.4m +70% Chip Munkington - 25.0 +68% LadiesMan217 - 23.8m +60% Eventine 23,4m +56% Mark66 - 22.725m +52% Mesjarch - 22.0m +47% Enki - 21.90m +47%
Average: 24.60m +65%
closed the battle is on between munk and jmovies, who will win  Hey it could still be 25.5M 
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Sun Jan 03, 2010 1:27 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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 Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
soagg wrote: BJ wrote: BJ wrote: Predict Avatanic's Friday
BJs Prediction: 27.0m +80% Revatar - 26.5m 78% Captain_Cold - 26.0 +74% Keyser Soze - 26.0m +74 Soagg - 25.5m +70% Jmovies - 25.4m +70% Chip Munkington - 25.0 +68% LadiesMan217 - 23.8m +60% Eventine 23,4m +56% Mark66 - 22.725m +52% Mesjarch - 22.0m +47% Enki - 21.90m +47%
Average: 24.60m +65%
closed the battle is on between munk and jmovies, who will win  Hey it could still be 25.5M  that it could be, ill add you as well 
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Sun Jan 03, 2010 1:31 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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 Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
Predict Avatanic's SaturdayEnki - 29.6 +18% Revatar - 27.2m +8% BJs Prediction: 26.5 +5% BennyBlanco - 26.1 +3% Chip Munkington - 25.7m +1%Jmovies - 25.08m -1% Mesjarch - 24.0m -4% Average: 26.31m +4% closedmunk and blanco battling it out for predicting glory 
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Sun Jan 03, 2010 1:39 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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 Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
BJ wrote: Domestic Total:
Mr. Blue - 120m | multiplier - 4.80
LadiesMan - 160m | multiplier - 4.57 Excel - 200m | multiplier - 4.44 Kris K - 210m | multiplier - 3.00 Nebs - 228.1m | multiplier - 3.84 Zingy - 234m | multiplier - 3.60
BK - 235m | multiplier - 3.61 MG Casey - 235m | multiplier - 5.00
Archangel - 240m | multiplier - 3.69 Tuukka - 240m | multiplier - 4.00
2001 - 250m | multiplier - 4.55 Madgez - 260m | multiplier - 4.56 したい - 265m | multiplier - 4.82 Neo_Wolf - 270m | multiplier - 4.35 Mr. Lobotomy - 274.25m | multiplier - 4.27 KC - 275m | multiplier - 4.44 billybobwashere - 285m | multiplier - 5.18 Jon - 295.5m | multiplier - 5.54 Dr. Lecter - 303m | multiplier - 4.97 Magnus - 300m | multiplier - 5.00 The Dark Shape - 310m | multiplier - 4.77
Proud Ryu - 320m | multiplier - 4.06 O - 327.6m | multiplier - 5.60
Telemachos - 340m | multiplier - 4.20
Nazgul - 350m | multiplier - -
Xiayun - 350m | multiplier - 4.61 Justice - 377m | multiplier - 4.08
Chip Munkington - 415m | multiplier - 5.53 Flava'd - 420m | multiplier - 5.45 SolC9 - 459m | multiplier - 4.88 Keyser Soze - 475m | multiplier - 5.28 BennyBlanco - 501m | multiplier - 5.51 Gamaur - 510m | multiplier - 5.74 Rev - 600m | multiplier - 3.53 Mark66 - 625m | multiplier - 8.34 DIB2 - 670m | multiplier - 7.28 BJ - 811m | multiplier - 7.62
Average Domestic Total Prediction: 331.36m
Average Multiplyer: 4.82
only 8 of the first round predictors made it in without having to update in the 2nd round, congrats don't forget to get your predictions in, especially if you're past prediction was in the red. Those wit a strike through there name have predicted in round 2 BJ wrote: Predict Avatanic's Domestic Total: round 2 update #5
Proud Ryu - 450m SolC9 - 459m Archangel - 500m BennyBlanco - 501m Nazgul - 504m Telemachos - 510m BK - 525m Keyser Soze - 525m Tyler - 530m The Dark Shape 540m Eventine - 541.2m Captain_Cold - 545m Xiayun - 550m LadiesMan217 - 565m 2001 - 565m Gamaur - 575m Chip Munkington - 601m Soagg - 602m Jmovies - 612m Revatar - 612.5m Mesjarch - 620m Mark66 - 625m DIB2 - 720m Lotan - 770m BJ - 811m EnKi - 1.025b
Average Domestic Total Prediction: 583.80m
newly submitted are in bold, have fun all.
round 2 so far, you have till sunday, closes at 10pm eastern get the in
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Sun Jan 03, 2010 1:52 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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 Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Avatanic is headed for its third straight wknd over 70m 
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Sun Jan 03, 2010 1:53 pm |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm Posts: 63026 Location: Tonight... YOU!
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 Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Sunday- $19.0 mil
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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Sun Jan 03, 2010 1:54 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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 Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
baumer wrote: Hey guys, it's been fun having so many of you over at Mojo for this historic time in film history. BJ, telemachos, mdana and a few others have graces us with your box office knowledge. I'm glad Avatanic has caught on here too....it's a cool name I made up a few weeks back and it fits perfectly. I'm in the Avatanic passing Titanic camp now. This thing is just a beast, Anyhoo, nice to chat with you guys again.  yo yo yo, its hard to try to explain to some of the BOMers(Lobotomy) how the BO works and it appears he still has not caught on judging by his appalling wknd 4 prediction 
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Sun Jan 03, 2010 1:55 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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 Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Chip Munkington wrote: Sunday- $19.0 mil Ive got a 25% drop on the cards, just waiting for BOM estimates 
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Sun Jan 03, 2010 1:59 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36949
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 Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Sunday - 19.8M
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Sun Jan 03, 2010 2:15 pm |
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jmovies
Let's Call It A Bromance
Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2007 7:22 pm Posts: 12333
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 Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Sunday- $20M
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Sun Jan 03, 2010 3:46 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6788
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 Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
sunday - 18% drop. sellouts are just crazy. i have read stories of sellouts since 930 for markets. i think avatar is going to stun as once more. 70m+ weekend for shu.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Sun Jan 03, 2010 3:50 pm |
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jmovies
Let's Call It A Bromance
Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2007 7:22 pm Posts: 12333
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 Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Keyser Söze wrote: sunday - 18% drop. sellouts are just crazy. i have read stories of sellouts since 930 for markets. i think avatar is going to stun as once more. 70m+ weekend for shu. ...and people say this will suddenly freefall 
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Sun Jan 03, 2010 3:52 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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 Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
jmovies wrote: Keyser Söze wrote: sunday - 18% drop. sellouts are just crazy. i have read stories of sellouts since 930 for markets. i think avatar is going to stun as once more. 70m+ weekend for shu. ...and people say this will suddenly freefall  
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Sun Jan 03, 2010 3:53 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6788
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 Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
twitter is the site to track. everyone cribbing that they cant walk in and buy imax tickets. http://twitter.com/#search?q=avatar%20sold%20out
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Sun Jan 03, 2010 3:57 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6788
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 Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
21.5m sunday based on bom numbers.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Sun Jan 03, 2010 4:22 pm |
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Nazgul9
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:32 pm Posts: 11289 Location: Germany
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 Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Day | Avatar | Return of the King | Dead Man's Chest | The Dark Knight |
Wed | - | $34,450,834 - / - $34,450,834 / 1 | - | - |
Thu | - | $17,019,987 -50.6% / - $51,470,821 / 2 | - | - |
Fri | $26,752,099 - / - $26,752,099 / 1 | $21,811,549 +28.2% / - $73,282,370 / 3 | $55,830,600 - / - $55,830,600 / 1 | $67,165,092 - / - $67,165,092 / 1 |
Sat | $25,529,036 -4.6% / - $52,281,135 / 2 | $27,492,053 +26% / - $100,774,423 / 4 | $44,443,225 -20.4% / - $100,273,825 / 2 | $47,650,240 -29.1% / - $114,815,332 / 2 |
Sun | $24,744,346 -3.1% / - $77,025,481 / 3 | $23,326,111 -15.2% / - $124,100,534 / 5 | $35,360,729 -20.4% / - $135,634,554 / 3 | $43,596,151 -8.5% / - $158,411,483 / 3 |
Mon | $16,385,820 -33.8% / - $93,411,301 / 4 | $13,563,208 -41.9% / - $137,663,742 / 6 | $18,140,271 -48.7% / - $153,774,825 / 4 | $24,493,313 -43.8% / - $182,904,796 / 4 |
Tue | $16,086,461 -1.8% / - $109,497,762 / 5 | $12,476,242 -8% / - $150,139,984 / 7 | $15,731,919 -13.3% / - $169,506,744 / 5 | $20,868,722 -14.8% / - $203,773,518 / 5 |
Wed | $16,445,291 +2.2% / - $125,943,053 / 6 | $7,544,400 -39.5% / -78.1% $157,684,384 / 8 | $14,154,725 -10% / - $183,661,469 / 6 | $18,377,288 -11.9% / - $222,150,806 / 6 |
Thu | $11,150,998 -32.2% / - $137,094,051 / 7 | $13,986,220 +85.4% / -17.8% $171,670,604 / 9 | $12,358,033 -12.7% / - $196,019,502 / 7 | $16,464,405 -10.4% / - $238,615,211 / 7 |
Fri | $23,095,046 +107.1% / -13.7% $160,189,097 / 8 | $19,152,196 +36.9% / -12.2% $190,822,800 / 10 | $18,544,356 +50.1% / -66.8% $214,563,858 / 8 | $23,232,292 +41.1% / -65.4% $261,847,503 / 8 |
Sat | $28,274,406 +22.4% / +10.8% $188,463,503 / 9 | $17,249,267 -9.9% / -37.3% $208,072,067 / 11 | $24,846,771 +34% / -44.1% $239,410,629 / 9 | $28,272,494 +21.7% / -40.7% $290,119,997 / 9 |
Sun | $24,247,681 -14.2% / -2% $212,711,184 / 10 | $14,196,641 -17.7% / -39.1% $222,268,708 / 12 | $18,954,137 -23.7% / -46.4% $258,364,766 / 10 | $23,661,680 -16.3% / -45.7% $313,781,677 / 10 |
Mon | $19,418,139 -19.9% / +18.5% $232,129,323 / 11 | $10,052,588 -29.2% / -25.9% $232,321,296 / 13 | $7,912,691 -58.3% / -56.4% $266,277,457 / 11 | $10,518,116 -55.5% / -57.1% $324,299,793 / 11 |
Tue | $18,290,628 -5.8% / +13.7% $250,419,951 / 12 | $9,615,240 -4.4% / -22.9% $241,936,536 / 14 | $7,490,004 -5.3% / -52.4% $273,767,461 / 12 | $9,629,366 -8.4% / -53.9% $333,929,159 / 12 |
Wed | $18,466,123 +1% / +12.3% $268,886,074 / 13 | $7,509,391 -21.9% / -0.5% $249,445,927 / 15 | $6,448,468 -13.9% / -54.4% $280,215,929 / 13 | $8,755,141 -9.1% / -52.4% $342,684,300 / 13 |
Thu | Est. $14,925,000 -19.2% / +33.8% $283,811,000 / 14 | $12,784,656 +70.2% / -8.6% $262,230,583 / 16 | $6,468,103 +0.3% / -47.7% $286,684,032 / 14 | $8,402,546 -4% / -49% $351,086,846 / 14 |
Fri | Est. $25,300,000 +69.5% / +9.5% $309,111,000 / 15 | $10,602,130 -17.1% / -44.6% $272,832,713 / 17 | $9,992,181 +54.5% / -46.1% $296,676,213 / 15 | $12,709,035 +51.3% / -45.3% $363,795,881 / 15 |
Sat | Est. $25,800,000 +2% / -8.8% $334,911,000 / 16 | $10,563,221 -0.4% / -38.8% $283,395,934 / 18 | $14,665,667 +46.8% / -41% $311,341,880 / 16 | $17,191,150 +35.3% / -39.2% $380,987,031 / 16 |
Sun | Est. $17,200,000 -33.3% / -29.1% $352,111,000 / 17 | $7,015,027 -33.6% / -50.6% $290,410,961 / 19 | $10,557,353 -28% / -44.3% $321,899,233 / 17 | $12,764,034 -25.8% / -46.1% $393,751,065 / 17 |
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Sun Jan 03, 2010 4:31 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25035 Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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 Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
TDK is beginning to sweat.
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Sun Jan 03, 2010 4:41 pm |
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