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 The Avatar Prediction|Tracking Thread/ (Aug. 27 re-release) 
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KJ's Leading Idiot

Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Enki wrote:
In a way, it is now official, TDK is already behind Avatar WW,

CAMERON'S BILLION DOLLAR BABY! 'Avatar' Passes $1B Worldwide And $350M Domestic After Only 17 Days In Release
:cheer:

http://www.deadline.com/hollywood/new-years-day-another-big-avatar-payday-the-blind-side-crosses-200m-domestic/


This is just dump writer predicting that a simple math of mine did days back. Also it is not yet official since the writer says that the information is from sources and the number should be 1.05B

soagg wrote:
Its a lock to get 1B WW by this weekend . Let us do some math being as modest as possible

Current stand
Domestic: $268,886,074
Foreign: $476,192,825 (As of data collected on Dec 29 i.e. Monday's numbers)
Worldwide: $745,078,899

Keyser Söze wrote:
this deserve to be posted here as well.


Avatar's international for Wednesday was $36.9M, down only 6% from Tuesday, making the foreign cume now $525.3M. So the worldwide total ending Wednesday was $794.1M. It has now crossed $800M today.

http://www.deadline.com/hollywood/


According to deadline.com - Till Wednesday total is 794.1M

Domestic Estimates (Modest)
Thursday - 18M (could be up 1-2M)
Weekend - 60M (could be up 1-10M)
Domestic Total = 78M (could be up 1-12M)

Foreign Estimates (Modest)
Thursday - 30M (i.e. 18% drop considering NYE)
Weekend - 100M (Friday-Sunday 30M that is current week's lowest WW)
Foreign Total - 130M (could be up 1-20M)

Just add 794 + 78 + 130 = 1002M

With all the numbers it seems that this number could be up by 1-32M.

I think it has a pretty good chance to cross 1B this weekend


I predicted this on Thursday itself. Let us wait for the official figures now :nerd:


Sun Jan 03, 2010 8:56 am
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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
soagg wrote:
Enki wrote:
In a way, it is now official, TDK is already behind Avatar WW,

CAMERON'S BILLION DOLLAR BABY! 'Avatar' Passes $1B Worldwide And $350M Domestic After Only 17 Days In Release
:cheer:

http://www.deadline.com/hollywood/new-years-day-another-big-avatar-payday-the-blind-side-crosses-200m-domestic/


This is just dump writer predicting that a simple math of mine did days back. Also it is not yet official since the writer says that the information is from sources and the number should be 1.05B

soagg wrote:
Its a lock to get 1B WW by this weekend . Let us do some math being as modest as possible

Current stand
Domestic: $268,886,074
Foreign: $476,192,825 (As of data collected on Dec 29 i.e. Monday's numbers)
Worldwide: $745,078,899

Keyser Söze wrote:
this deserve to be posted here as well.


Avatar's international for Wednesday was $36.9M, down only 6% from Tuesday, making the foreign cume now $525.3M. So the worldwide total ending Wednesday was $794.1M. It has now crossed $800M today.

http://www.deadline.com/hollywood/


According to deadline.com - Till Wednesday total is 794.1M

Domestic Estimates (Modest)
Thursday - 18M (could be up 1-2M)
Weekend - 60M (could be up 1-10M)
Domestic Total = 78M (could be up 1-12M)

Foreign Estimates (Modest)
Thursday - 30M (i.e. 18% drop considering NYE)
Weekend - 100M (Friday-Sunday 30M that is current week's lowest WW)
Foreign Total - 130M (could be up 1-20M)

Just add 794 + 78 + 130 = 1002M

With all the numbers it seems that this number could be up by 1-32M.

I think it has a pretty good chance to cross 1B this weekend


I predicted this on Thursday itself. Let us wait for the official figures now :nerd:



For me, this "rumor" in several websites, plus yours and my predictions, makes it official
TDK is biting the dust today
:P

http://www.deadline.com/hollywood/new-years-day-another-big-avatar-payday-the-blind-side-crosses-200m-domestic/
http://www.examiner.com/examiner/x-1486-LA-Personalities-Examiner~y2010m1d3-Movie-of-the-world-Avatar-crosses-1-biilion-mark-at-the-global-box-office
http://www.gossipcop.com/avatar-soaring-toward-1-billion/

I know. It is happening WAY TOO FAST!

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Sun Jan 03, 2010 9:11 am
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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread


Yes it is. I mean look at this it is like a giant and when everyone says that this can be achieved only because of higher ticket prices then there should be a number of movies breaking the records next year. As far as I am seeing IM2, Shrek3 can come close to 1B since they already have an established fan base. I bet no one even sequels are coming even near to this next year


Sun Jan 03, 2010 9:51 am
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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Hey guys, it's been fun having so many of you over at Mojo for this historic time in film history.

BJ, telemachos, mdana and a few others have graces us with your box office knowledge.

I'm glad Avatanic has caught on here too....it's a cool name I made up a few weeks back and it fits perfectly.

I'm in the Avatanic passing Titanic camp now. This thing is just a beast,

Anyhoo, nice to chat with you guys again. ;)


Sun Jan 03, 2010 10:38 am
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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
EnKi wrote:
I know. It is happening WAY TOO FAST!


soagg wrote:
Yes it is. I mean look at this it is like a giant and when everyone says that this can be achieved only because of higher ticket prices then there should be a number of movies breaking the records next year. As far as I am seeing IM2, Shrek3 can come close to 1B since they already have an established fan base. I bet no one even sequels are coming even near to this next year


It seems that the industry is evolving. I read somewhere that the higher pricing for 3D theaters is good marketing. Indeed it is, I think they call it expanding the product line by means of packaging. 3D gives the customers another alternative to access the same product, at a premium price. Despite decreasing the total number of units sold, it is a wise strategy because it ultimately increases sales, hence profits. They do that in many industries.
I bet JC and Fox run all the numbers before releasing Avatar in 3D. They are proving that the 3D-theater worldwide distribution network is cost-effective and gives returns so the industry will grow in that direction.

The Academy has very good economic reasons to support Avatar until the Oscars. When the dust settles, Avatar would have beaten Titanic WW becoming the new benchmark for future blockbusters.

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Sun Jan 03, 2010 10:42 am
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Post Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
BJ wrote:
Predict Avatanic's Domestic Total: round 2 update #5

2001 - 470m

round 2 so far, you have till sunday, post em eh.


Raising mine to 565m which would be above Gump but below The Godfather adjusted. :)


Sun Jan 03, 2010 12:52 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
BJ wrote:
Predict Avatanic's 3rd Wknd


EnKi - 81.5m +7%
BJs Prediction: 70.90m -6%
Mark66 - 68.055m -10%
Jmovies - 68m -10%
Captain_Cold - 68m -10%
Soagg - 66.9m -11%
BennyBlanco - 66.5m -12%

Xiayun - 64.5m -15%
DIB2 - 64.5m -15%
Eventine 63.8m -15%
LadiesMan217 - 64.3m -15%
MG Casey - 64m -15%
Keyser Soze - 62m -18%
Flava'd - 62m -18%
2001 - 61m -19%
Gamaur - 61m -19%
Mesjarch - 60.5m -19%
Solas - 60.5m -19%
Lotan - 60.0m -20%
Revatar - 58.67m -22%
Telemachos - 57m -24%
Chip Munkington - 56.8m -24%


~Average: 63.59m -15%

closed

new range

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Sun Jan 03, 2010 1:21 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
BJ wrote:
Predict Avatanic's Friday


BJs Prediction: 27.0m +80%
Revatar - 26.5m 78%
Captain_Cold - 26.0 +74%
Keyser Soze - 26.0m +74
Soagg - 25.5m +70%
Jmovies - 25.4m +70%
Chip Munkington - 25.0 +68%

LadiesMan217 - 23.8m +60%
Eventine 23,4m +56%
Mark66 - 22.725m +52%
Mesjarch - 22.0m +47%
Enki - 21.90m +47%

Average: 24.60m +65%

closed

the battle is on between munk and jmovies, who will win :D

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Sun Jan 03, 2010 1:25 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
BJ wrote:
BJ wrote:
Predict Avatanic's Friday


BJs Prediction: 27.0m +80%
Revatar - 26.5m 78%
Captain_Cold - 26.0 +74%
Keyser Soze - 26.0m +74
Soagg - 25.5m +70%
Jmovies - 25.4m +70%
Chip Munkington - 25.0 +68%

LadiesMan217 - 23.8m +60%
Eventine 23,4m +56%
Mark66 - 22.725m +52%
Mesjarch - 22.0m +47%
Enki - 21.90m +47%

Average: 24.60m +65%

closed

the battle is on between munk and jmovies, who will win :D


Hey it could still be 25.5M :D


Sun Jan 03, 2010 1:27 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
soagg wrote:
BJ wrote:
BJ wrote:
Predict Avatanic's Friday


BJs Prediction: 27.0m +80%
Revatar - 26.5m 78%
Captain_Cold - 26.0 +74%
Keyser Soze - 26.0m +74
Soagg - 25.5m +70%
Jmovies - 25.4m +70%
Chip Munkington - 25.0 +68%

LadiesMan217 - 23.8m +60%
Eventine 23,4m +56%
Mark66 - 22.725m +52%
Mesjarch - 22.0m +47%
Enki - 21.90m +47%

Average: 24.60m +65%

closed

the battle is on between munk and jmovies, who will win :D


Hey it could still be 25.5M :D

that it could be, ill add you as well :thumbsup:

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Sun Jan 03, 2010 1:31 pm
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Post Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
Predict Avatanic's Saturday


Enki - 29.6 +18%
Revatar - 27.2m +8%
BJs Prediction: 26.5 +5%
BennyBlanco - 26.1 +3%
Chip Munkington - 25.7m +1%

Jmovies - 25.08m -1%
Mesjarch - 24.0m -4%


Average: 26.31m +4%

closed
munk and blanco battling it out for predicting glory :D

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Post Re: The Avatar Prediction | Tracking Thread
BJ wrote:
Domestic Total:

Mr. Blue - 120m | multiplier - 4.80
LadiesMan - 160m | multiplier - 4.57
Excel - 200m | multiplier - 4.44
Kris K - 210m | multiplier - 3.00
Nebs - 228.1m | multiplier - 3.84
Zingy - 234m | multiplier - 3.60
BK - 235m | multiplier - 3.61
MG Casey - 235m | multiplier - 5.00
Archangel - 240m | multiplier - 3.69
Tuukka - 240m | multiplier - 4.00
2001 - 250m | multiplier - 4.55
Madgez - 260m | multiplier - 4.56
したい - 265m | multiplier - 4.82
Neo_Wolf - 270m | multiplier - 4.35
Mr. Lobotomy - 274.25m | multiplier - 4.27
KC - 275m | multiplier - 4.44
billybobwashere - 285m | multiplier - 5.18
Jon - 295.5m | multiplier - 5.54
Dr. Lecter - 303m | multiplier - 4.97
Magnus - 300m | multiplier - 5.00
The Dark Shape - 310m | multiplier - 4.77
Proud Ryu - 320m | multiplier - 4.06
O - 327.6m | multiplier - 5.60
Telemachos - 340m | multiplier - 4.20
Nazgul - 350m | multiplier - -
Xiayun - 350m | multiplier - 4.61
Justice - 377m | multiplier - 4.08
Chip Munkington - 415m | multiplier - 5.53
Flava'd - 420m | multiplier - 5.45

SolC9 - 459m | multiplier - 4.88
Keyser Soze - 475m | multiplier - 5.28
BennyBlanco - 501m | multiplier - 5.51
Gamaur - 510m | multiplier - 5.74
Rev - 600m | multiplier - 3.53
Mark66 - 625m | multiplier - 8.34
DIB2 - 670m | multiplier - 7.28
BJ - 811m | multiplier - 7.62

Average Domestic Total Prediction: 331.36m

Average Multiplyer: 4.82

only 8 of the first round predictors made it in without having to update in the 2nd round, congrats :good:

don't forget to get your predictions in, especially if you're past prediction was in the red. Those wit a strike through there name have predicted in round 2

BJ wrote:
Predict Avatanic's Domestic Total: round 2 update #5


Proud Ryu - 450m
SolC9 - 459m
Archangel - 500m
BennyBlanco - 501m
Nazgul - 504m
Telemachos - 510m
BK - 525m
Keyser Soze - 525m
Tyler - 530m
The Dark Shape 540m
Eventine - 541.2m
Captain_Cold - 545m
Xiayun - 550m
LadiesMan217 - 565m
2001 - 565m
Gamaur - 575m
Chip Munkington - 601m
Soagg - 602m
Jmovies - 612m
Revatar - 612.5m
Mesjarch - 620m
Mark66 - 625m
DIB2 - 720m
Lotan - 770m
BJ - 811m
EnKi - 1.025b

Average Domestic Total Prediction: 583.80m

newly submitted are in bold, have fun all.

round 2 so far, you have till sunday, closes at 10pm eastern get the in

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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Avatanic is headed for its third straight wknd over 70m :D

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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Sunday- $19.0 mil

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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
baumer wrote:
Hey guys, it's been fun having so many of you over at Mojo for this historic time in film history.

BJ, telemachos, mdana and a few others have graces us with your box office knowledge.

I'm glad Avatanic has caught on here too....it's a cool name I made up a few weeks back and it fits perfectly.

I'm in the Avatanic passing Titanic camp now. This thing is just a beast,

Anyhoo, nice to chat with you guys again. ;)

yo yo yo, its hard to try to explain to some of the BOMers(Lobotomy) how the BO works and it appears he still has not caught on judging by his appalling wknd 4 prediction :disgust:

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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Chip Munkington wrote:
Sunday- $19.0 mil

Ive got a 25% drop on the cards, just waiting for BOM estimates :D

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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Sunday - 19.8M


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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Sunday- $20M


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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
sunday - 18% drop. sellouts are just crazy. i have read stories of sellouts since 930 for markets. i think avatar is going to stun as once more. 70m+ weekend for shu.

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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
Keyser Söze wrote:
sunday - 18% drop. sellouts are just crazy. i have read stories of sellouts since 930 for markets. i think avatar is going to stun as once more. 70m+ weekend for shu.


...and people say this will suddenly freefall :funny:


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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
jmovies wrote:
Keyser Söze wrote:
sunday - 18% drop. sellouts are just crazy. i have read stories of sellouts since 930 for markets. i think avatar is going to stun as once more. 70m+ weekend for shu.


...and people say this will suddenly freefall :funny:

:lol:

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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
twitter is the site to track. everyone cribbing that they cant walk in and buy imax tickets. :funny:

http://twitter.com/#search?q=avatar%20sold%20out

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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
21.5m sunday based on bom numbers.

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Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
DayAvatarReturn of the KingDead Man's ChestThe Dark Knight
Wed-$34,450,834
- / -
$34,450,834 / 1
--
Thu-$17,019,987
-50.6% / -
$51,470,821 / 2
--
Fri$26,752,099
- / -
$26,752,099 / 1
$21,811,549
+28.2% / -
$73,282,370 / 3
$55,830,600
- / -
$55,830,600 / 1
$67,165,092
- / -
$67,165,092 / 1
Sat$25,529,036
-4.6% / -
$52,281,135 / 2
$27,492,053
+26% / -
$100,774,423 / 4
$44,443,225
-20.4% / -
$100,273,825 / 2
$47,650,240
-29.1% / -
$114,815,332 / 2
Sun$24,744,346
-3.1% / -
$77,025,481 / 3
$23,326,111
-15.2% / -
$124,100,534 / 5
$35,360,729
-20.4% / -
$135,634,554 / 3
$43,596,151
-8.5% / -
$158,411,483 / 3
Mon$16,385,820
-33.8% / -
$93,411,301 / 4
$13,563,208
-41.9% / -
$137,663,742 / 6
$18,140,271
-48.7% / -
$153,774,825 / 4
$24,493,313
-43.8% / -
$182,904,796 / 4
Tue$16,086,461
-1.8% / -
$109,497,762 / 5
$12,476,242
-8% / -
$150,139,984 / 7
$15,731,919
-13.3% / -
$169,506,744 / 5
$20,868,722
-14.8% / -
$203,773,518 / 5
Wed$16,445,291
+2.2% / -
$125,943,053 / 6
$7,544,400
-39.5% / -78.1%
$157,684,384 / 8
$14,154,725
-10% / -
$183,661,469 / 6
$18,377,288
-11.9% / -
$222,150,806 / 6
Thu$11,150,998
-32.2% / -
$137,094,051 / 7
$13,986,220
+85.4% / -17.8%
$171,670,604 / 9
$12,358,033
-12.7% / -
$196,019,502 / 7
$16,464,405
-10.4% / -
$238,615,211 / 7
Fri$23,095,046
+107.1% / -13.7%
$160,189,097 / 8
$19,152,196
+36.9% / -12.2%
$190,822,800 / 10
$18,544,356
+50.1% / -66.8%
$214,563,858 / 8
$23,232,292
+41.1% / -65.4%
$261,847,503 / 8
Sat$28,274,406
+22.4% / +10.8%
$188,463,503 / 9
$17,249,267
-9.9% / -37.3%
$208,072,067 / 11
$24,846,771
+34% / -44.1%
$239,410,629 / 9
$28,272,494
+21.7% / -40.7%
$290,119,997 / 9
Sun$24,247,681
-14.2% / -2%
$212,711,184 / 10
$14,196,641
-17.7% / -39.1%
$222,268,708 / 12
$18,954,137
-23.7% / -46.4%
$258,364,766 / 10
$23,661,680
-16.3% / -45.7%
$313,781,677 / 10
Mon$19,418,139
-19.9% / +18.5%
$232,129,323 / 11
$10,052,588
-29.2% / -25.9%
$232,321,296 / 13
$7,912,691
-58.3% / -56.4%
$266,277,457 / 11
$10,518,116
-55.5% / -57.1%
$324,299,793 / 11
Tue$18,290,628
-5.8% / +13.7%
$250,419,951 / 12
$9,615,240
-4.4% / -22.9%
$241,936,536 / 14
$7,490,004
-5.3% / -52.4%
$273,767,461 / 12
$9,629,366
-8.4% / -53.9%
$333,929,159 / 12
Wed$18,466,123
+1% / +12.3%
$268,886,074 / 13
$7,509,391
-21.9% / -0.5%
$249,445,927 / 15
$6,448,468
-13.9% / -54.4%
$280,215,929 / 13
$8,755,141
-9.1% / -52.4%
$342,684,300 / 13
ThuEst. $14,925,000
-19.2% / +33.8%
$283,811,000 / 14
$12,784,656
+70.2% / -8.6%
$262,230,583 / 16
$6,468,103
+0.3% / -47.7%
$286,684,032 / 14
$8,402,546
-4% / -49%
$351,086,846 / 14
FriEst. $25,300,000
+69.5% / +9.5%
$309,111,000 / 15
$10,602,130
-17.1% / -44.6%
$272,832,713 / 17
$9,992,181
+54.5% / -46.1%
$296,676,213 / 15
$12,709,035
+51.3% / -45.3%
$363,795,881 / 15
SatEst. $25,800,000
+2% / -8.8%
$334,911,000 / 16
$10,563,221
-0.4% / -38.8%
$283,395,934 / 18
$14,665,667
+46.8% / -41%
$311,341,880 / 16
$17,191,150
+35.3% / -39.2%
$380,987,031 / 16
SunEst. $17,200,000
-33.3% / -29.1%
$352,111,000 / 17
$7,015,027
-33.6% / -50.6%
$290,410,961 / 19
$10,557,353
-28% / -44.3%
$321,899,233 / 17
$12,764,034
-25.8% / -46.1%
$393,751,065 / 17

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Sun Jan 03, 2010 4:31 pm
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Killing With Kindness
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Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm
Posts: 25035
Location: Anchorage,Alaska
Post Re: The Avatar(Avatanic) Prediction | Tracking Thread
TDK is beginning to sweat.

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Sun Jan 03, 2010 4:41 pm
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