avatars line looks almost exactly the same as titanic's

Predict Avatanic's Wednesday

Enki - 19.5m +7%
BJs Prediction: 18.05m -1%
Flava'd - 17.9m -2%
Jmovies - 17.6m -3%
Mark66 - 17,559,003m -4%
Revatar - 17.26m -5%
Chip Munkington - 17.0m -7%
Mesjarch 17.0m -7%
DIB2 - 17.0m -7%
Gamaur - 16.9m -7%
LadiesMan217 - 16.8m -8%
Keyser Soze - 16.7m -8%
Telemachos - 16.65m -8%
The Dark Shape - 16.5m -9%
MikeQ 16.4m -10%

Average: 17.25m -5%

you have until 10pm eastern, post your prediction for a chance at one day of predicting glory.

Predict Avatanic's 3rd Wknd


EnKi - 81.5m +7%
BJs Prediction: 70.90m -6%
Jmovies - 70.17m -7%
Xiayun - 64.5m -15%
DIB2 - 64.5m -15%
LadiesMan217 - 64.2m -15%
Keyser Soze - 62m -18%
Flava'd - 62m -18%
2001 - 61m -19%
Gamaur - 61m -19%
Mesjarch - 60.5m -19%
Solas - 60.5m -19%
Lotan - 60.0m -20%
Revatar - 58.67m -22%
Telemachos - 57m -24%
Chip Munkington - 56.8m -24%


Average: 63.32m -16%

you have until Friday, 10pm eastern, get em in eh

If holidays would extend for another month maybe...

Just like Titanic, increasing the slope after the first week instead of decreasing like TDK did. How many blockbusters do that? in December?
I am telling you, this is an outlier... and it is heading to $1b... domestic!

i see quite a few 3d sellouts at nyc, amc loews at boston commons and others. slightly better than yesterday.

bumping my wednesday to 18m.

Avatar should be at 340 mil after 17 days. TDK of course made 400 mil in 17 days.

Avatar will only be 60 mil behind TDK after this weekend! TDK made 50 mil in its 4th week as a whole (from 18th day-24th day). Avatar SHOULD make 90 at the least.

Its a practical lock to catch TDK at this point. Avatar vs Titanic is the real debate

Between day 20 and 24 Avatar will pass ROTK's $1.119b gross sales WorldWide, to own the second most successful box office WW ever, only after Titanic. In my opinion, that's what really counts. Domestic sales are just a good indicator, but WW is where the money is.

350m after 17 days

i concur it has excellent chance of beating tdk, how on earth would avatar make 90m next week( 18-24). its past new year when week days would be weak plus its weekend hold wont be that insane considering new year weekend is inflated.

ya its doing slightly better here as well

Predict Avatanic's Wednesday

Enki - 19.5m +7%
BJs Prediction: 18.05m -1%
Keyser Soze - 18.0m -1%
Flava'd - 17.9m -2%
Jmovies - 17.6m -3%
Mark66 - 17,559,003m -4%
Revatar - 17.26m -5%
Chip Munkington - 17.0m -7%
Mesjarch 17.0m -7%
DIB2 - 17.0m -7%
Gamaur - 16.9m -7%
LadiesMan217 - 16.8m -8%
Telemachos - 16.65m -8%
The Dark Shape - 16.5m -9%
MikeQ 16.4m -10%

Average: 17.34m -4%

you have until 10pm eastern, post your prediction for a chance at one day of predicting glory. 2 hours

Huh?

You really think coming off an inflated week of "non"-holidays that Avatar will only drop from $127m to $90m, a 29% drop? I don't think so:

3rd Week to 4th Week drop

ROTK $68.14/$21.91m -67.8%
FOTR $49.65m/$22.81m -54.1%
Titanic $69.04m/40.41 -41.4%
The Prince of Egypt $26.29m/$8.51m -67.6%
You've Got Mail $30.5m/$12.6m -58.7%

FOTR really shouldn't be on this list because its 3rd week already included weekdays after Jan. 1. Some of the week day 60-70% drops were already part of its third week, so it didn't drop as hard. However, I just wanted to show that even under the most optimistic conditions for a 3rd to 4th week drop, anything under 50% is practically impossible. Avatar is starting to fall behind the pace of TPOE and YGM in week day gross as percentage of overall gross. They have had comparable runs off their OW, but Avatar has given up that lead from last week as well. I threw in Titanic to show how it has quickly fallen behind it as well.


OW multiplier for 1st 5 days gross

Avatar 1.42
Titanic 1.40
TPOE 1.36
YGM 1.31

5th day as % of total gross through 5 days

Titanic 14.9%
Avatar 14.7%
TPOE 14.5%
YGM 13%

OW multiplier for 1st 12 days gross
Titanic 3.64
TPOE 3.31
Avatar 3.25
YGM 2.99

12th day as % of total gross through 12 days

TPOE 8.5%
Titanic 7.7%
Avatar 7.3%
YGM 7.2%



Avatar's 3D screens have reached functional capacity. Finally, supply is overtaking demand at this point. Avatar had the worst drop in the top 10 outside of SH yesterday. It hit the iceberg yesterday.

I wrote this last week on BOM:



http://www.boxofficemojo.com/forums/vie ... t=#2499271

It has not met the necessary conditions needed to get it past $550m, and is falling off even that pace. TPOE made almost 50% of its total by day 12. If Avatar does the same thing and remember it has fallen behind in terms of OW multiplier and current daily gross %, it would finish at $528.6m. Barring unforeseen holds in its 4th weekend which I doubt, but can't rule out, Titanic is just a mirage.

For me, the question is still if it can overtake TDK.

That is an interesting analysis above, but I think you are fogetting to take into consideration when comparing with the Dark Knight, which as you said made $400 million in it's first 17 days, is that it didn't have 2 months of awards buzz to ride on, which Avatar might. If it gets nominated for a lot of Oscars, or somehow manages to win Best Picture at either the Globes or Oscars, it could stretch it's run out until late March. With 3D inflated prices, this could continue to have nice grosses week after week for months to come. So even with only 340 million going into January, 550 million isn't out of the question. In fact, with the holiday weekend (MLK) in January to boost it, I am pretty certain it will make it there.

600m+ mdana underestimates the asscar potential

I specifically stated it wasn't out of the question, just becoming less and less likely.

I could see Best Picture since there are 10 noms now, but what else? It won't get director, script or any acting awards, which are the ones needed to help legs, significantly.

Oh come on, its still breaking records every day and you think it's over?

Just compare the previous 2nd Tuesday record held by LOTR with $10m broken by AVATAR with $18m - I don't see any slowing down...

$16.3m

If it is still 5 nominations for Best Director, I think it is more likely than not he does not get nominated. However, he probably has a better chance than I wrote. He has never been nominated outside of Titanic. They might give him a nom. for paving the way with 3D.

Predict Avatanic's Wednesday

Enki - 19.5m +7%
BJs Prediction: 18.05m -1%
Keyser Soze - 18.0m -1%
Flava'd - 17.9m -2%
Jmovies - 17.6m -3%
Mark66 - 17,559,003m -4%
Revatar - 17.26m -5%
Chip Munkington - 17.0m -7%
Mesjarch 17.0m -7%
DIB2 - 17.0m -7%
Gamaur - 16.9m -7%
LadiesMan217 - 16.8m -8%
Telemachos - 16.65m -8%
The Dark Shape - 16.5m -9%
MikeQ - 16.4m -10%
Mdana - 16.3m -11%


Average: 17.28m -4%

closed

Predict Avatanic's 3rd Wknd


EnKi - 81.5m +7%
BJs Prediction: 70.90m -6%
Jmovies - 70.17m -7%
Xiayun - 64.5m -15%
DIB2 - 64.5m -15%
LadiesMan217 - 64.2m -15%
Keyser Soze - 62m -18%
Flava'd - 62m -18%
2001 - 61m -19%
Gamaur - 61m -19%
Mesjarch - 60.5m -19%
Solas - 60.5m -19%
Lotan - 60.0m -20%
Revatar - 58.67m -22%
Telemachos - 57m -24%
Chip Munkington - 56.8m -24%


Average: 63.32m -16%

you have until Friday, 10pm eastern, get em in eh
bump

only 8 of the first round predictors made it in without having to update in the 2nd round, congrats

don't forget to get your predictions in, especially if you're past prediction was in the red. Those wit a strike through there name have predicted in round 2




round 2 so far, you have till sunday, post em eh.
bump