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 Juno Will Win Best Picture and Original Screenplay Club 
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Post Re: Juno Will Win Best Picture and Original Screenplay Club
billybobwashere wrote:
hmm, I thought it had a chance at BP earlier. Its RT stands at about 91%, and won't go up much further. In my opinion, it would've needed over a 95% rating to have a strong chance at a win. LMS was at 92%, had fantastic box office, yet only got a nom. With all the raved contenders this year, coming out with a win would require some stand-out reviews, but its reviews are really in the middle of the high-class pack, as it stands with a 91% 7.8 avg [not close to NCFOM's 96% 8.5 but well ahead of AG's 77% 6.9].


It's reviews are great. 94% Rotten tomatoes with an 8.1 average and a 100% Cream of the Crop with an 8.4 average which actually is better than No Country for Old Men's 90% and 8.2 average. If it misses out on a nomination it will not be because of reviews.

The only one thing that concerns me if that no matter how brilliant it is, it might be just a little too young-skewing for it to be that popular with the academy.

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Thu Dec 27, 2007 4:14 pm
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Post Re: Juno Will Win Best Picture and Original Screenplay Club
I have a new prediction:

J.K. Simmons and Allison Janney of Juno will be nominated in the supporting categories. They were both really pretty great, and I feel like their categories are pretty up in the air at the moment other than a few locks. Juno seems to be riding a wave of buzz right now, too.

I am probably entirely off-base, though, considering neither one of them has been nominated at all this season yet.


Sat Dec 29, 2007 12:46 am
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Post Re: Juno Will Win Best Picture and Original Screenplay Club
Libs wrote:
I have a new prediction:

J.K. Simmons and Allison Janney of Juno will be nominated in the supporting categories. They were both really pretty great, and I feel like their categories are pretty up in the air at the moment other than a few locks. Juno seems to be riding a wave of buzz right now, too.

I am probably entirely off-base, though, considering neither one of them has been nominated at all this season yet.


Janney HAS received a critic's award from Austin for Juno, though unfortunately for her her S. Actress buzz keeps getting shifted over to Garner by people for whatever reason (And not just around here). Simmons would need a BAFTA mention for me to genuinely consider him (As cool as it would be), but I do think Janney stands a legitimate chance, better than the other two at least.


Sat Dec 29, 2007 12:48 pm
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Post Re: Juno Will Win Best Picture and Original Screenplay Club
Janney? Maybe Simmons? Nah. Affleck, Bardem, Holbrook, Hoffman and Wilkinson all look solid and Travolta is just outside and waiting.

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Sat Dec 29, 2007 1:56 pm
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Post Re: Juno Will Win Best Picture and Original Screenplay Club
I just feel like it would be kind of silly to recognize Janney in such a small role when she's been passed over dozens of times in better, more memorable roles. It sort of belittles the rest of her career.


Sat Dec 29, 2007 2:35 pm
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Post Re: Juno Will Win Best Picture and Original Screenplay Club
I'm still predicting (and hoping for) a Jennifer Garner nom.


Sat Dec 29, 2007 2:48 pm
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Post Re: Juno Will Win Best Picture and Original Screenplay Club
loyalfromlondon wrote:
Juno should really be happy with 3 noms.

It's clearly a showcase for Ellen and Diablo, whereas past Best Picture comedy nominees like Little Miss Sunshine, Sideways, and Lost in Translation had directors and costars in the limelight as well.


I agree completely. Actually, the screenplay wasn't even that special. It was funny and all, but nothing of monumental significance. I can't believe the attention it's getting really...it's not much more than a very good coming-of-age teen comedy, which don't normally go hand-in-hand with Oscars. I think it's really all in the timing. And that Ebert's probably still high off of painkillers.


Sat Dec 29, 2007 2:58 pm
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Post Re: Juno Will Win Best Picture and Original Screenplay Club
I'm still not sold on it getting a BP nom. All the directors of recent comedy BP nominees have been getting more attention, even the directors of LMS. I think Reitman got zilch so far.

Moreover, I repeat my question, when was the last time a movie got a BP nom and yet not more than three nominations in total. Four Weddings and a Funeral? Or did we have another one after that?

The Full Monty - 4 noms (inluding Director)
Lost in Translation - 4 noms (inluding Director)
Sideways - 5 noms (including Director)
Little Miss Sunshine - 4 noms (no Director nom)

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Sat Dec 29, 2007 3:06 pm
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Post Re: Juno Will Win Best Picture and Original Screenplay Club
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Janney? Maybe Simmons? Nah. Affleck, Bardem, Holbrook, Hoffman and Wilkinson all look solid and Travolta is just outside and waiting.


Just because they look solid doesn't mean other people can't sneak in. It's not like the nominations are *never* surprises.


Sat Dec 29, 2007 3:19 pm
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Post Re: Juno Will Win Best Picture and Original Screenplay Club
Libs wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Janney? Maybe Simmons? Nah. Affleck, Bardem, Holbrook, Hoffman and Wilkinson all look solid and Travolta is just outside and waiting.


Just because they look solid doesn't mean other people can't sneak in. It's not like the nominations are *never* surprises.



Yeah, but the examples of people sneaking in are usually the ones when a movie is sweeping in many categories anyway. For instance: Alan Alda getting one for The Aviator without precursors or Eastwood getting in for M$B. Even Samatnah Morton, Djimon Hounsou and Marcia Gay Harden, when they got their surprising noms, they had some kind of precursors. The Best Sup. Actor candidates so far have very strong precursors. As I said, I could see Janney. Swinton, Blanchett and Ryan are locked, but beyond that, it's rather unsure with Redgrave, Keener and Ronan fighting for spots...so Janney? Maybe.

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Post Re: Juno Will Win Best Picture and Original Screenplay Club
loyalfromlondon wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Moreover, I repeat my question, when was the last time a movie got a BP nom and yet not more than three nominations in total. Four Weddings and a Funeral? Or did we have another one after that?


I can't think of one. It seems highly unlikely to me that Jason is going to get a nom. Sofia got one for LiT but she was, and LiT for that matter, a completely different beast.

On one hand, it's hard for me to see Juno getting in with 3 noms, especially when the rest of the nominees are going to be 5 noms and much higher. Seems like a pointless BP nom.

On the other hand, Juno has grown into some sort of beast of mythical proportions. I certainly don't think a BP nom is just, so nothing would suit me more than seeing it snubbed.


I haven't seen the movie and I do want to see it, but it seems to me that the main reason going for its chances as a BP nominee is pretty much its box-office success because without it being nominated, it's looking rather bleak for the success of BP nominees (unless Hairspray or American Gangster can sneak in...whiuch I both consider possible as well!).

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Post Re: Juno Will Win Best Picture and Original Screenplay Club
Is it possible that Juno gets an editing nom? As Good As It Gets got one. LMS and Sideways didn't. It'd be a weird nomination but who knows, it usually matches up with BP.

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Sun Dec 30, 2007 5:19 am
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Post Re: Juno Will Win Best Picture and Original Screenplay Club
Fuck. The soundtrack is now the #1 album on iTunes.


Sun Dec 30, 2007 5:37 am
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Post Re: Juno Will Win Best Picture and Original Screenplay Club
loyalfromlondon wrote:
Pardon me for thinking that Ellen Page, a 20 year old actress who has starred in Hollywood blockbusters, is COMPLETELY different than say, a 16 year old high school student from Minnesota.


Sorry, but now you're bullshit nitpicking. Page has been in ONE blockbuster. ONE. After that, Hard Candy and An American Crime I haven't heard of ONE of her credits. And judging from her Letterman appearance is is far more down to earth than 97% of actresses her age. I think you're just getting caught up in your own annoyance at the idea of this winning Picture, and getting irrational. Seriously.


Sun Jan 06, 2008 1:04 pm
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Post Re: Juno Will Win Best Picture and Original Screenplay Club
This simply won't be a movie to break the streak. I think for a comedy to win, it'd need at least a BD nom. Which it likely won't get. It'll also have the least noms overall.

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