Mmmk, so every year, we get a rather large failure (or two, sometimes three), a film that looks like it has it in the bag but completely busts upon release.

Case in point: Alexander. I thought it was virtually guaranteed at least a director nom last year, and yeah...

And to a lesser extent, Closer. I think we all pretty much thought it also had it in the bag (around this time last year, at least), but other than the Porman/Owen attention it got, it never really went anywhere.

So what do you guys think has the potential this year to be a complete failure (of astronomical proportions, if you will)?

Rent
The New World
Memoirs of a Geisha
Munich

To a lesser extent BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN, which won't get terrible reviews, but won't be lighting the world on fire.

For some reason, Colin Farrell currently seems to be box office poison, so The New World is a fair shot.

What was the big bust of 2003? I would think Cold Mountain, but it did get a bunch of nods and the reviews were favorable.

It could be Memoirs of a Geisha or The New World. I'm thinking these might be too Oscar-baity for their own good. Like The Phantom of the Opera, where everything in the background is so overly elaborate that it ends up burying any intended substance.

It also managed to make just under $100m, which is very good for a civl war movie.

I can't see The New World missing out if The Thin Red Line was nominated. Maybe I'm thick, but I just didn't get that movie. Mallick is very respected in Hollywood.

I think Memoirs Of A Geisha has the best possibility of crashing, even though I'm looking forward to it.

If the current trend with the reviews continues, I'm afraid you might be right.

Other than that...I suppose Jarhead was already that movie.

Yeah, Jarhead has to be considered a disappointment as it now only has a chance for a cinematography nom, nothing more. On top of that, it had rather poor legs at the box office and will Mendes' first film not to cross 100 million.

BJs top 5:

Jarhead
The New World not surprising here, Ferrell is quickly turning into the most radioactively toxic actor around.
Munich Speilberg is good but so highly over rated its nuts.
Rent most unfortunate as was Jarhead
The Pruducors Though it looks good i have a hard time seeing this film breaking out in anyway.

Yeah, for me right now it's The New World and Geisha.

Though I couldn't have been anymore excited for Geisha. Can't wait for that.

Hmmmm, I'm pretty sure eeryone knows now which it is.

Seriously, some months ago I wouldn't have even considered it to fail that badly. I mean currently reviews are slightly worse than Phantom's.

I'd like to use this moment to remind everyone of just how unbelievably bad Phantom was. So very, very bad

Yes. There is no way MEMIORS can match PHANTOM's badness pound-for-pound, Rex Reed recommendation or no Rex Reed recommendation.

Speaking of which, how right was I when I declared his rave MOAG review the harbinger of failure? Wow.

I was wrong on Brokeback Mountain, however.

Looks like Geisha is setting up to be a failure. The reviews thus far are brutal, especially for what was supposed to be a serious Oscar contender.

Yeah, Memoirs of a Geisha is definitely looking like the biggest loser to date (by the way, I've been saying for months now that this could easily dissapoint and get nearly shut out. Don't mean to brag but I just got to with this one, heh.) Jarhead ended up making a huge sum of money, so it's hard to list it as that much of a dissapointment, although thusfar I'd say it's the second biggest one.

Not exactly huge...It started off well, but ultimately will fail to even cross $65 million.

Thanks for pointing that out, Lecter. Jarhead is not a success.

It's going to be the Producers. This had even higher expectations than Geisha, hugely popular Broadway play and tons of press for Lane and Broderick. Throw in Uma and Will Farrell and there was a lot riding on it.

Geisha, yes the review for Geisha are disappointing but frankly it is one of the few nominees that would help keep the top awards from being a whiteout. It adds some much needed cultural/racial diversity and it might get in with a boost from that angle, as the academy is very self conscious of it's image it seems.

As usual take this with a grain of salt, I'm not one of the guys here who examines excel tables of top 10 lists and analyzes RT ratings.

I am also getting the impression that The Producers is dead in the Oscar water, although many are calling it a great time at the movies.

Hmmm, I doubt expectations were higher for The Producers than Geisha, heh.

As far as other movies that have yet to come out... I got a bad feeling about Match Point. It really just seems like way too little, too late. The reviews are very good but it just doesn't exactly stand out. And as said, The Producers doesn't seem to have much any chance of anything, although I still don't see exactly why some thought it did.

Woah, 65 million? Jesus, I wasn't paying attention, I thought it was going to finish around 75-80 million. What was the budget, 70 million?

hehe it's up to 11 100s at metacritics, with 21 reviews in...which means more than half of the reviews give it a perfect score. for those who cant do math

$72 million. It's just embarassing that Jarhead won't even manage a multiplier of 2.5.

As for Match Point...I think the reviews are too good to be ignored. At least Allen should get a directing nod. I mean its reviews are generally better than Walk the Line's, Syriana's and not too far away from Brokeback Mountain.

Yeah but so far it seems much closer to Good Night, and Good Luck/Capote for how big it's going to be, and even if it's somewhat larger then those two I don't think the reviews will be as good for either.

I consider Good Night, and Good Luck close to a lock for a nom as this year's Sideways. It has a decent box-office, a big push behind it with Venice festival praise and Clooney. Capote's rave reviews are mostly resulting from Hoffman's performance, similar to Monster, just a bit better. Match Point's reviews don't just single out an aspect of the movie, they praise the entire movie. Also I think Academy memebers will be glad to see Allen back to form in the year he hit 70. While only two of his movies have ever been nominated for Best Picture, he has been nominated for Best Director six times. So he is usually one of those director's who fill the 5th spot without their movie becoming nominated. Also, the 13 nominated screenplays speak for themselves.

I agree in regards to Good Night, and Good Luck. If Match Point did somehow get a nomination, it would take that film's spot. It's true that Capote's reviews have praised Phillip Seymour Hoffman immensely, but there is not a single slightly negative review to be found on Metacritic in regards to the film, as most critics agree that it is flawless.