ok, you have a point there


BUT, Babel is being released almost 6 months after Crash last year and the reaction is scaringly similar to both films (as if they didn't have enough similarities already...), with some people calling it the the best movie of the year (or one of the best) and others not liking it... Remember: what got Crash that far were the "passion votes" (the #1 votes that matter the most in the end), not the RT/Metacritic rating in general...




so far:

Crash:
Metacritic - 69 (39 reviews)
RT - 75% (with 178 reviews, avg. rating 7.1/10)

Babel:
Metacritic - 68 (9 reviews)
RT - 74% (with 23 reviews, avg. rating 7/10)




it's still too early to talk about a consensus, though...

looking at crash's critics scores in retrospect, i must say that its a shame that this movie won best picture. reminds me of gladiator, which had so-so reviews as well.

Thing is, normally a big-budget, inspirational historic film that becomes a tremendous box office hit does not need that many good reviews. But theorically a small-budget niche film distributed by Lions Gate should have required out of this world notices... "Crash" was an anomaly.




You have a point too. But I just feel that the same passion was behind "21 grams" and less people back then were tired of Iñarritu´s style (I personally love it, but...). I think that if "Babel" ends up with the kind of money and critic scores "Crash" did, It won´t win the BP Oscar. Cause "Crash" was an anomaly.

Babel is down to 70 on RT and 67 on Metacritic

It needs to start getting more strong support from big critics or it's pretty much screwed and another spot can be opened in the Oscar race.

Yeah, I like to think that too...

On the other hand, it has been said that Babel is easier to follow than 21 Grams, so that helps it alot... the BFCA rating alone garantees it'll be a major player for the awards season.

And I also don't think it'll win now (it's this year's Crash yes, but last year was... different, an anomaly like you said ), but it'll get nominated for sure (99% sure )

It's still too early... and I'm sure many of the "major" critics will fall in love by it.. afterall, it'd be pretty bizarre after all the buzz from Cannes and Toronto if this ended up below 70 at both RT and Metacritic


(Actually, 21 Grams had only a "70" at Metacritic, with 7 100's and 5 30's - I just checked it out)

I think that says more about this year's Cannes line-up than about Babel...

It's looking better and better for The Departed, The Queen, and United 93. I think The Queen and United 93 will split NBR's BP and BD. A lot of NY-based critics don't like Babel, so it definitely isn't taking NYFCC (The Departed should be a major player there).

Little Miss Sunshine's $60m also looks better each day. Still think its chance is small since the passion index is lower than Flags and Little Children, but it's lurking. If LMS makes it, it will certainly ease loyal's pain of seeing U93 there.

There is still hope

http://www2.foxsearchlight.com/notesonascandal/

So The Envelope gushed over Notes on a Scandal and Judi Dench's deliciously camp/evil/insane turn looks comparable to another psycho won the Oscar, Kathy Bates' Annie Wilkes in Misery.

"She's the one I've waited for. . ."

"Then I realized I could gain everything by doing nothing."

"You are forever in my debt."

"DON'T PLAY THE GOOD MOTHER WITH ME."

That's a lot of scenery-chewing. She sounds like a serial killer.

Considering how she can get nominated for simply sneezing, I wouldn't be surprised if it became a battle of the dames for Actress.

Three older actresses fighting it out may just allow Cruz to sneak in for a win. Also Dench's own performance could blow everyone away and take the lead in critic awards. The film's reception can certainly make the race interesting again.

I have a hard time seeing the film stopping Mirren from sweeping the critics. The film seems a little too. . .over the top (?) to make THAT big of a dent w/critics.

That looks so good. Judi Dench as some crazy ass psycho bitch, that'll be awesome.

slightly

Dench being in there probably puts Winslet in hot water, I'd say.

Stop it! Stop it all of you! She will make it, she will make it.... Winslet has to make it... *starts pathetically denying everything*



PEACE, Mike.

IMO, Babel is almost out of the BP race now. Crash simply had more passion behind it...Babel still has only one single 100 score at MC. Even 21 Grams had seven. I don't see this one really performing better than 21 Grams... Acting, yes. Maybe screenplay. But Picture? At this point a clear "no".

Yeah. I actually think Alejandro González Iñárritu's coscar history might resemble that of P.T. Anderson some:

-First film gets some fans, not much recognition (Ameros Perros/Hard Eight, though the former did get a Foreign Language nom)
-Second film gets lots of recognition, some oscar nominations (Boogie Nights gets Supp Actor, Supp. Actress, Screenplay; 21 Grams gets Actress, Supp. Actor)
-Third film gets lotsa hype, has a big name in a medium role, doesn't quite meet expectations, gets a noms for Supporting Actor, Screenplay and a tech (Babel/Magnolia)

That's actually a little spooky. Now what low-brow comedian will Iñárritu get a good performance out of?

Wait a minute...are we saying she may not be nominated or may not win?

People were first saying she may not win, now it's being extended to she may not even be nominated (since yet another oldie, Dench, is apparently looking good for a nomination). This apparently puts Winslet in "hot water" according to Shack, and xiayun is insistent that the nominations can't possibly stay the same as early expectations and seems more and more convinced Winslet won't make the cut. This all started when Mirren came out a'blazin' and now Dench apparently too.

*sigh*

In my opinion, Winslet deserves to have an Oscar under her belt already, and now once again she may be snubbed in terms of winning or even being nominated! How the hell is it that Hilary Swank has already won 2 Oscars, and Winslet has nothing to show for her already amazing career? It's just not fair. Winslet deserves to be in the Oscar history books, not stupid fricking Swank.



PEACE, Mike.

Winslet needs to ugly it up a bit to win.

Kate Winslett WILL be nominated, guys. She's a sweetheart of the Oscars. Just about everybody loves her. The academy knows this. She falls right in with the America's Sweetheart thing that Best Actress has going on. Little Children continues to make gains. It's had very few bad reviews in it's last 50-60 reviews. Didn't Libs make a comment that it was the best acted movie she's seen this year or something like that? Mark it down.

Updated. The Queen got it's 3rd bad review.

I really hope that you are right Mav.

By the way, I really don't think anyone should be writing off Babel yet. It's now been certified officially fresh on RT, and is at 74% overall and a 78% in COTC (much better than before), and also has jumped up to 71 at Metacritic. Not the greatest or anything, but still holding it's own and it isn't negative enough to slash its chances completely.

PEACE, Mike.

Here is a bit more to convince you of Katie's chances. Here's where the actresses in the running currently stand critically overall at Rotten Tomatoes. Now, consider, if you will, Kate's film is actually stronger in it's rating than Penelope's by a good margin, and has had many more reviews. I would call her ahead of Cruz based on that and based on "darling" status. There really isn't much in the way of upcoming Best Actress standout competition, and Kate's in a film that has been rising strongly, and is already ahead of most Best Actress winners, which are highlighted in blue. I highlighted Winslet, Mirren, and Cruz so you could get a better idea of how they rate. Kate is in no danger here. Thems the facts.

[table][row color=#000000][col color=#000000]Rank[col color=#000000]Year[col color=#000000]Actress[col color=#000000]Film[col color=#000000]RT Score
[row][col]1[col color=#D0D0D0]2006[col color=#FFFFCC]Helen Mirren[col color=#FAEBD7]The Queen[col]97% (8.4)
[row][col]2[col color=#D0D0D0]2004[col]Catalina Sandino Moreno[col color=#FAEBD7]Maria Full of Grace[col]97% (8.0)
[row][col]3[col color=#D0D0D0]1998[col color=#E6E6FA]Gwyneth Paltrow[col color=#FAEBD7]Shakespeare in Love[col]94% (8.2)
[row][col]4[col color=#D0D0D0]2001[col]Sissy Spacek[col color=#FAEBD7]In the Bedroom[col]94% (7.9)
[row][col]5[col color=#D0D0D0]2000[col]Laura Linney[col color=#FAEBD7]You Can Count on Me[col]94% (7.8)
[row][col]6[col color=#D0D0D0]1998[col]Fernanda Montenegro[col color=#FAEBD7]Central do Brasil[col]94% (7.9)
[row][col]7[col color=#D0D0D0]2004[col]Kate Winslet[col color=#FAEBD7]Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind[col]93% (8.4)
[row][col]8[col color=#D0D0D0]1998[col]Meryl Streep[col color=#FAEBD7]One True Thing[col]93% (7.5)
[row][col]9[col color=#D0D0D0]2004[col color=#E6E6FA]Hilary Swank[col color=#FAEBD7]Million Dollar Baby[col]91% (8.4)
[row][col]10[col color=#D0D0D0]2004[col]Imelda Staunton[col color=#FAEBD7]Vera Drake[col]91% (7.9)
[row][col]11[col color=#D0D0D0]2002[col]Julianne Moore[col color=#FAEBD7]Far From Heaven[col]90% (8.2)
[row][col]12[col color=#D0D0D0]2003[col]Keisha Castle-Hughes[col color=#FAEBD7]Whale Rider[col]90% (7.7)
[row][col]13[col color=#D0D0D0]1998[col]Emily Watson[col color=#FAEBD7]Hilary and Jack[col]90% (7.7)
[row][col]14[col color=#D0D0D0]1999[col]Annette Benning[col color=#FAEBD7]America Beauty[col]89% (8.0)
[row][col]15[col color=#D0D0D0]2003[col]Samantha Morton[col color=#FAEBD7]In America[col]89% (7.8)
[row][col]16[col color=#D0D0D0]1999[col color=#E6E6FA]Hilary Swank[col color=#FAEBD7]Boys Don't Cry[col]88% (7.9)
[row][col]17[col color=#D0D0D0]2002[col]Renee Zellweger[col color=#FAEBD7]Chicago[col]88% (7.9)
[row][col]18[col color=#D0D0D0]2006[col color=#FFFFCC]Penelope Cruz[col color=#FAEBD7]Volver[col]88% (7.2)
[row][col]19[col color=#D0D0D0]2006[col color=#FFFFCC]Kate Winslet[col color=#FAEBD7]Little Children[col]87% (7.7)
[row][col]20[col color=#D0D0D0]2005[col]Keira Knightley[col color=#FAEBD7]Pride and Prejudice[col]85% (7.7)
[row][col]21[col color=#D0D0D0]2001[col color=#E6E6FA]Halle Berry[col color=#FAEBD7]Monster's Ball[col]84% (7.3)
[row][col]22[col color=#D0D0D0]2000[col color=#E6E6FA]Julia Roberts[col color=#FAEBD7]Erin Brockovich[col]84% (7.3)
[row][col]23[col color=#D0D0D0]2005[col color=#E6E6FA]Reese Witherspoon[col color=#FAEBD7]Walk the Line[col]83% (7.4)
[row][col]24[col color=#D0D0D0]1999[col]Janet McTeer[col color=#FAEBD7]Tumbleweeds[col]83% (7.0)
[row][col]25[col color=#D0D0D0]2003[col]Naomi Watts[col color=#FAEBD7]21 Grams[col]81% (7.5)
[row][col]26[col color=#D0D0D0]2003[col color=#E6E6FA]Charlize Theron[col color=#FAEBD7]Monster[col]80% (7.1)
[row][col]27[col color=#D0D0D0]2001[col]Renee Zellweger[col color=#FAEBD7]Bridget Jones's Diary[col]80% (6.8)
[row][col]28[col color=#D0D0D0]2002[col color=#E6E6FA]Nicole Kidman[col color=#FAEBD7]The Hours[col]79% (7.4)
[row][col]29[col color=#D0D0D0]1998[col]Cate Blanchett[col color=#FAEBD7]Elizabeth[col]79% (7.3)
[row][col]30[col color=#D0D0D0]2000[col]Ellen Burstyn[col color=#FAEBD7]Requiem for a Dream[col]77% (7.3)
[row][col]31[col color=#D0D0D0]2001[col]Judi Dench[col color=#FAEBD7]Iris[col]77% (7.1)
[row][col]32[col color=#D0D0D0]2001[col]Nicole Kidman[col color=#FAEBD7]Moulin Rouge![col]77% (7.0)
[row][col]33[col color=#D0D0D0]2000[col]Joan Allen[col color=#FAEBD7]The Contender[col]76% (6.7)
[row][col]34[col color=#D0D0D0]2004[col]Annette Bening[col color=#FAEBD7]Being Julia[col]76% (6.7)
[row][col]35[col color=#D0D0D0]2005[col]Felicity Huffman[col color=#FAEBD7]Transamerica[col]75% (6.7)
[row][col]36[col color=#D0D0D0]2002[col]Salma Hayek[col color=#FAEBD7]Frida[col]74% (6.8)
[row][col]37[col color=#D0D0D0]2005[col]Charlize Theron[col color=#FAEBD7]North Country[col]70% (6.8)
[row][col]88[col color=#D0D0D0]2003[col]Diane Keaton[col color=#FAEBD7]Something's Gotta Give[col]69% (6.5)
[row][col]39[col color=#D0D0D0]1999[col]Meryl Streep[col color=#FAEBD7]Music of the Heart[col]68% (6.5)
[row][col]40[col color=#D0D0D0]1999[col]Julianne Moore[col color=#FAEBD7]The End of the Affair[col]67% (6.7)
[row][col]41[col color=#D0D0D0]2005[col]Judi Dench[col color=#FAEBD7]Mrs. Henderson Presents[col]67% (6.6)
[row][col]42[col color=#D0D0D0]2000[col]Juliette Binoche[col color=#FAEBD7]Chocolat[col]61% (6.0)
[row][col]43[col color=#D0D0D0]2002[col]Diane Lane[col color=#FAEBD7]Unfaithful[col]47% (5.7)[/table]